Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 252008 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 308 PM EST WED FEB 25 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
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A LOW LEVEL DRY LAYER IS DELAYING PRECIP AT THE GROUND OVER SOUTHERN AREAS...BUT GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THIS LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN SNOW BEGINNING NEAR CHATTANOOGA AROUND 22-23Z...WITH ACCUMULATIONS STARTING AN HOUR OR TWO LATER AS TEMPERATURES DROP FROM EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED AT TIMES THIS EVENING AS AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING BETWEEN UPPER JET STREAKS PROVIDES STRONG VERTICAL ASCENT. THIS LIFT APPEARS STRONGEST OVER SE TN...SW NC..AND THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. BY 06Z WE START TO SEE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AT THE DENDRITE GROWTH LEVEL...AND THE AREA OF BEST FORCING MOVES INTO NE TN AND SW VA. POPS WILL DROP BACK TO A CHANCE NORTH TO SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AFTER THIS TIME. THE WINTER STORM WARNING AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AREAS AND TIMING WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED. A NW UPSLOPE FLOW AND SOME STEEPENING LAPSE RATES MAY KEEP SOME SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES IN NORTHERN AREAS AND THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT THIS WILL ADD MUCH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE TOTAL...AS UPSLOPE WINDS ARE ONLY 10-15 KTS AND MOISTURE IS SHALLOW. FOR TEMPERATURES...WILL UNDERCUT MOS GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SNOW COVER...AND FOR THE EXPECTED OVERCAST CLOUD COVER THAT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THURDAY. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER OVER THE EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS FRIDAY MORNING BUT NO ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHERWISE... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WILL THEN SEE A PATTERN CHANGE DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. WINDS BECOME SOUTHERLY ...CARRYING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE TN VALLEY. WE WILL ALSO MOVE INTO AN UNSETTLED PATTERN AS A SERIES OF LOWS PRESSURE SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FOR CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THESE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE THOUGH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO NUDGE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MIANLY NEAR THE CHA AREA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 28 40 24 37 / 100 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 28 37 22 33 / 100 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 28 37 21 32 / 100 30 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 27 35 21 29 / 100 40 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ THURSDAY FOR BRADLEY-EAST POLK-HAMILTON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEQUATCHIE-WEST POLK. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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&& $$ DGS/MJB

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