


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --649 FXUS64 KMRX 280445 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 1245 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Today and tonight) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Key Messages: 1. Scattered showers and thunderstorms again this afternoon. 2. Relatively normal summer heat with some heat index values near 100F. Discussion: Today is expected to be somewhat of a copy of Friday`s forecast with warm, humid conditions across the region. Temperatures remain hot with heat index values near 100F, but we`ll remain below Heat Advisory criteria. The weakness in the ridge remains with numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms expected to develop across the region during the afternoon. Convection will first develop across the higher elevations and plateau between Noon and 2pm with increasing chances of showers and storms across the valley after 2pm as outflow boundaries initiate new convection. Primary convective mode will be pulse convection once again as EBShear remains weak around 10 kt with afternoon MLCAPE in the 2000 to 2500 J/Kg range. PW values remain primarily between 1.7 and 1.9 inches which will result in heavy rain rates, but not extreme, tropical-like rates. Flash flooding will be possible, but mainly where there is convective training. Convection will begin to diminish in coverage after sunset.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .LONG TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Key Messages: 1. Numerous diurnal convection continues through Tuesday. 2. Cold front expected to bring drier air by mid to late week. Discussion: Diurnal convection will continue on Sunday with a pattern very similar to Saturday with highest probability for thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. An upper-level trough begins to amplify across the upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes as a strong shortwave moves across the northern CONUS. This will bring a surface frontal boundary approaching our area by Monday and Tuesday. Moisture will increase ahead of this trough as southwesterly flow becomes more pronounced with LREF ensemble guidance showing PW values increasing to around 1.9 to 2.0 inches by Monday afternoon through Tuesday. The GFS and NAM also show areas of 2.0 to 2.2 inch PW values on Monday and Tuesday. These very high PW values will lead to the potential of very heavy rainfall rates of 3 to 4+ inch per hour QPE which will enhance flooding concerns. Flooding issues will likely be isolated, but with these types of rates, any areas with drainage issues or ample impervious surfaces could flood quickly. There is still higher spread in the ensembles of if we get full frontal passage on Tuesday/Tuesday night, so there is still some low PoPs on Wednesday, especially for southeast Tennessee and southwest North Carolina. However, the trend is for drier conditions on Wednesday through Independence Day across the region with more pleasant, slightly less humid conditions for this time of year.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .AVIATION...-- Changed Discussion --(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 AM EDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Areas of fog and low clouds are expected this morning with VCFG across the region due to rainfall earlier tonight at all sites. MVFR and tempo IFR conditions will be possible in spots early this morning due to the fog and low bkn clouds. VFR conditions are forecast to prevail by 15z with additional vcsh and Prob30 TSRA during the afternoon hours. Prevailing winds are light and variable.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 71 90 72 / 50 20 50 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 90 70 90 71 / 70 30 60 20 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 90 71 / 60 20 60 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 86 67 88 68 / 70 30 60 30-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...JB LONG TERM....JB AVIATION...JB