-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
514
FXUS64 KMRX 080536
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
136 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Key Messages:

1. Today will be the warmest day this week. Expect heat indices in
the mid 90s to low 100s. While ambient temperatures will trend
cooler through the week, conditions will still be muggy.

2. Daily chances for showers and storms expected through the
forecast period, with the best chances in the afternoon and evening
hours.

Discussion:

Convection continues to dwindle across the region as instability
wanes into the overnight hours. Overall, a mostly quiet night
expected though cannot totally rule out isolated light rain. An
upper trough axis will slowly progress through the Mississippi River
Valley tomorrow. Combined with the potential for lingering outflow
from this past afternoons convection, better coverage of shower and
storms are expected. As always with diurnal convection, some
stronger storms with locally gusty winds, heavy downpours, or even
small hail could occur. PWAT values will be hovering between the
75th-90th percentile, thus, isolated flooding could occur on the
condition of multiple strong cells impacting one location in quick
succession. Expect Tuesday to be our warmest day with heat indices
approaching the low 100s across portions of the southern and central
valley.

Coverage of diurnal convection will generally continue to increase
Wednesday and into the late week as the aforementioned trough axis
settles across the Tennessee Valley. While vort lobes rounding the
base of a trough will lead to a slight uptick in synoptic forcing,
the upper height falls and more persistent cloud cover will somewhat
inhibit CAPE values. A few strong to severe storms possible during
this mid to late week timeframe as well but no notable organized
severe threat is expected. Daily chances of showers and storms also
suggest some potential for isolated flooding, but overall confidence
is low. This is largely due to uncertainties on coverage. Some
guidance hints the trough axis shifts SE of the Appalachians,
potentially limiting moisture advection in the the East TN valley.

Height rises into the weekend and early next week will promote a
slight warming trend with continued daily chances for showers and
storms.
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&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

We should see convection over the plateau and east TN mountains
by 16-17z, and think this activity will at least be INVOF all
terminals by 18z. While coverage will be higher than yesterday,
I`m not confident enough to go with prevailing thunder. Will just
carry PROB30 at all sites to account for TSRA. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail through the period along with light winds.
Fog potential seems low, but if any site gets a lot of rain that
could change.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             94  73  92  73 /  40  20  80  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  72  91  71 /  50  30  80  50
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  71  90  71 /  50  30  80  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  69  88  68 /  50  30  80  70
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KRS
LONG TERM....KRS
AVIATION...CD