Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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839 FXUS64 KMRX 260717 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 317 AM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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A cold front that is currently across southern IN/IL/MO will be pushing east through the day, and will be the main focus of showers and thunderstorms for our area this afternoon and evening. The ongoing convection is post-frontal that weakens through the morning, but the models develop a new convective line along the front as it moves into the Cumberland Plateau around 20Z. The best precip chances occur with the fropa between 20-00Z, and will have likely pops in this time frame. Increasing cloud cover ahead of the front should hold high temps back from the past few days and below record highs, but still above normal in the mid to upper 80s. Some post- frontal precip will be possible as the surface front outpaces the midlevel trough axis, and low to slight chance pops will continue after midnight. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... Quick swing in the weather pattern from the above average temperatures we`ve seen for the past few months, some people might even want to break out the sweater/hoodie at some point this week. There could be a bit of remnant moisture left after the front passes that could bring light precip along the Southern Appalachian Mountains on Tuesday, but most of the area should stay dry. The next thing to watch will be the low pressure system over the Great Lakes region. models were in a bit of disagreement in previous runs, but are starting to narrow in on a solution that has this low slowly diving south/southeastward towards the mid Atlantic states and maybe even moving over our forecast area. Currently the ECMWF is the most aggressive with how far south to bring this system, but the GFS/NAM are starting to follow suit in the latest runs. The amount of moisture/precipitation that this system will bring is still a bit difficult to pin down at this time... But it does look promising that we will see cloudy, cool, and wet conditions the middle of the week until this system moves out to the northeast. Best chances for precipitation will be in Northeast Tennessee/Southwest Virginia closer to where the lows track will likely be. Once this system finally moves out we are forecasted to see a return to sunnier weather at the end of this 7-day forecast..
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 62 80 53 / 60 30 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 59 78 50 / 60 40 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 56 80 50 / 60 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 57 76 46 / 70 60 20 0
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