Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200832 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 332 AM EST Sat Jan 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)...Low level ridging now working its way far enough east to allow the start of a weak return flow during this period. Return flow aloft is already underway as stratocumulus clouds continue to spread northeastward across the area. Clouds are expected to fill in across the last part of the area (far northeast) over these next few hours and persist through the day and overnight for most of the area. Will show weaker sky cover south as cloud shield might lift far enough north to allow some breaks in the clouds south. However, in the upslope areas in the eastern mountains, should have a good fetch of moisture lifting to form fog and chances of drizzle today and overnight tonight. For temps, even with cloud cover, temperatures should continue to warm today with 40s north and 50s south. Tonight looks like temps will stay above freezing area-wide as surface dewpoints continue to rise on this return flow. .Long Term (Sunday through Friday)...Model solutions are in very good agreement through much of the long term, featuring a strengthening upper trough and surface frontal system emerging out of the Southern Rockies on Sunday. The warm southerly flow helps to boost high temperatures into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees both Sunday and Monday. Clouds will be on the increase on Monday along with an increasing chance for showers as the system cold front pushes into the region. Held onto categorical pops for the frontal passage later Monday afternoon through the evening hours with tapering probabilities into the overnight hours. It still looks like some trailing upper level energy drops into the base of the departing trough and there should be sufficient moisture for a few sprinkles across eastern sections. Sufficiently cold air will be building in behind the frontal system for the possibility of some light snow showers or flurries in the higher terrain areas across Southwest Virginia and along the Tennessee and North Carolina border late Monday night into Tuesday morning. A dry but colder northwesterly flow keeps weather uneventful on Tuesday and Wednesday followed by a modest warming trend and more dry weather to end the work week Thursday and Friday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 54 35 61 45 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 37 58 39 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 51 36 58 41 / 0 0 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 36 57 37 / 10 0 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GM

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