Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 220704 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 304 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A CLOSED UPPER-LOW CONTINUES TO SCOOT TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HAS PUSHED SOME BKN TO OVC DECKS OF LOW STRATUS INTO SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS DONE LITTLE TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING HOWEVER AS NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUED TO BRING COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S NOTED THERE AS OF 3 AM EDT. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE DAY...REINFORCING THIS COOLER AIR MASS. THUS DESPITE THE AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN. THE AFOREMENTIONED CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...BEFORE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH BY THE AFTERNOON AS THE LOW DROPS INTO NORTH CAROLINA. BY THE EVENING...MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PREVAILING IN MOST LOCATIONS WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT NOTED OVER THE AREA EARLIER IN THE DAY WILL ALSO RELAX...WHICH WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN AND EVEN COMPLETELY DECOUPLE IN SOME SHELTERED VALLEYS. AS A RESULT...LOWS WILL BE EVEN COOLER TONIGHT AND DROP INTO THE MID 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA... AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW PATCHY FROST TO DEVELOP /ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS/ LATE TONIGHT. THUS...DECIDED TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS /AND THE EAST TN MTNS/ FROM 08Z TO 13Z WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY...SOME PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ALONG AREA RIVERS AND LAKES...SO HAVE MAINTAINED THAT IN THE FORECAST AS WELL. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... REALLY A PROLONGED STRETCH OF SOME AWESOME FALL WEATHER DAYS AND NIGHTS. ONLY ITEM OF ANY CONCERN IS THE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT SETS UP AGAIN ON THURSDAY NIGHT. AIRMASS TRENDING VERY DRY BY THEN WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY DOWN TO 1/4 INCH OR LESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. GROWING SEASON SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN...BUT I FELT IT WAS PRUDENT TO MENTION AREAS OF FROST (OUTSIDE OF NRN AND SMOKY MTNS WHERE A FREEZE OCCURRED ON 10/20). THIS WILL ALSO BE NOTED IN OUR HAZARDOUS WEATHER PRODUCT (HWO). OTHERWISE...REALLY NO RETURN OF ANY SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW UNTIL LATE MONDAY. NAM MOS WAS AT ODDS WITH GFS MOS FOR THURSDAY THRU FRIDAY MAX/MIN TEMPS. WENT CLOSER TO GFS MOS FOR NOW...SINCE COOLER MINS AND WARMER MAXES MAKE MORE SENSE GIVEN THE PATTERN. FINAL NOTE...12Z AND OOZ GFSX MOS GUIDANCE TRENDING AWAY FROM PREVIOUS MAX/MIN GRIDS FROM THE WEEKEND INTO TUESDAY. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ALSO BRING US MORE IN LINE WITH NEIGHBORING NWS GRIDS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 40 69 42 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 61 38 65 40 / 10 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 38 66 40 / 10 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 35 61 34 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER- NORTHWEST GREENE-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI- WASHINGTON TN. VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
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