Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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427 FXUS64 KMRX 230715 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 315 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
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Surface high pressure will be shifting from the central Appalachians to the Mid-Atlantic coast through the day, while a large mid/upper level ridge will be building slightly northward over the Deep South through the short term period. Another day of comfortable dewpoints and mostly sunny skies is expected today, but with slightly warmer temps under the building ridge. Models show a 500 mb shortwave trough moving around the top of the ridge and crossing our area on Wednesday. The GFS looks suspiciously wet for such a weak feature with little preceding moisture and no low level forcing. The lighter NAM QPF in northern sections looks more reasonable, and will have low to slight chance pops Wednesday. The ridge aloft continues to build northward on Thursday, which should help suppress any convective potential outside of some isolated mountain showers in the afternoon. Temperatures will continue their warming trend into Thursday, returning to the upper 80s and lower 90s in the TN Valley. .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Not too much has changed in the long term period for this issuance other than possibly tweaking back on probability of precipitation a tad. Model solutions show just a little too much ridging in place with some gradual low level moisture/instability return, mainly on Sunday and Monday. However, even during this part of the forecast, the prospects for any widespread convective precipitation look meager with no major focusing mechanism evident. And without any possibility of a nice refreshing airmass emanating out of the northern latitudes during the next several days combined with respectable insolation, temperatures will be rebounding back into the hot upper 80s and lower 90s for highs with warm nights in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 70 91 72 / 10 10 20 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 66 89 70 / 0 10 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 87 66 89 70 / 0 10 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 86 65 / 0 10 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ 24/99

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