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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMRX 270821
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY.  RADAR SHOWING SOME
ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND APPEARS SOME BANDS OF FLURRIES
AND LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY.  WHILE CANNOT
TELL WHERE BETTER BANDS MAY BE...SOME PLATEAU AND VALLEY LOCATIONS
MAY PICK UP LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. ALREADY HAVE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND AN INCH
OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW.  WILL ISSUE AN
SPS ABOUT THE EARLY MORNING VALLEY/PLATEAU SNOW.  ONCE THIS
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE DECREASE IN CLOUDS LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT.  WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY...NOT
MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL START
OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.  THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.  ANY PRECIP THAT PUSHES IN
EARLY ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD FALL A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW
MIX.  HOWEVER...CURRENT TIMING SHOULD BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT
MOSTLY RAIN.  ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL DOMINATE WEATHER
INTO SATURDAY.  THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PROVIDING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             46  27  49  33 /  10   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  21  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       39  23  44  29 /  20   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  16  39  23 /  40  10   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-
     SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-
     SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI.

VA...NONE.
&&

$$

LW/MJB

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