Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270821 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 321 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK DISTURBANCE COMING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY. RADAR SHOWING SOME ENHANCEMENT TO OUR NORTHWEST...AND APPEARS SOME BANDS OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DAYBREAK AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE DAY. WHILE CANNOT TELL WHERE BETTER BANDS MAY BE...SOME PLATEAU AND VALLEY LOCATIONS MAY PICK UP LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN PLATEAU. ALREADY HAVE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND AN INCH OR TWO POSSIBLE THERE...SO WILL LEAVE AS IS FOR NOW. WILL ISSUE AN SPS ABOUT THE EARLY MORNING VALLEY/PLATEAU SNOW. ONCE THIS DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH...SHOULD SEE DECREASE IN CLOUDS LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. WILL UNDERCUT MAV TEMPS SLIGHTLY FOR TODAY...NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MINS FOR TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE EXTENDED WILL START OUT WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR A DRY WEDNESDAY WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE WEATHER PATTERN CHANGES ON THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. ANY PRECIP THAT PUSHES IN EARLY ENOUGH THURSDAY MORNING COULD FALL A LIGHT SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...CURRENT TIMING SHOULD BRING THE MAIN BAND THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY AND WITH WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES...EXPECT MOSTLY RAIN. ANY SHOWERS THAT LINGER INTO LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY UPSLOPE SHOWERS...WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL DOMINATE WEATHER INTO SATURDAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONCERN WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL EFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PROVIDING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 46 27 49 33 / 10 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 38 21 44 29 / 20 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 39 23 44 29 / 20 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 16 39 23 / 40 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/MJB

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