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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 110705
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL PROVIDE A LOW LEVEL NE
FLOW...WITH A DRY NW FLOW THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS IN THE TN VALLEY LOOK PRETTY STABLE TODAY...SO MOST OF THE
AREA SHOULD STAY DRY. SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW NC AND THE SMOKIES...AS
DEPICTED BY THE RAP AND HRRR. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THOSE AREAS. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z. WILL
HAVE TEMPERATURES TODAY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT BELOW
GFS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH SEEMS TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
A FLAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY. ONLY FORCING FOR CONVECTION WITH BE
OROGRAPHIC..SO WILL HAVE POPS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL DROP
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL BE OVER
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH A COLD FRONT PASSAGE
FOR LATE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY. INCREASING INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF STORMS FOR MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT FOR JULY AND
DECENT INSTABILITY...I AM CONCERNED FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

WILL CALL FOR HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY. AS TIMING OF FROPA AND POTENTIAL OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
BECOMES MORE CLEAR...CATEGORICAL POPS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.

AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
COOLER THAN GFS MEX HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 90 69 93 70 / 10 10 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 67 91 69 / 10 10 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 88 66 91 68 / 10 10 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 63 88 64 / 10 10 10 10-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DGS/DH

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