


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN
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-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --896 FXUS64 KMRX 260144 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 944 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE...-- Changed Discussion --Issued at 942 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 The two main changes this evening were an increase in dew points based on recent trends and a reduction in PoPs. Activity has diminished in our area with PoPs limited to no more than 20 percent.-- End Changed Discussion --&& .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Key Messages: 1. Heat Advisory continues for much of the area until 6 pm ET. Heat indices from the upper 90s to 105 degrees this afternoon. 2. Isolated severe storms this afternoon into the evening hours with downburst damaging winds and localized flash flooding the main concern. Isolated severe storms again Thursday with a little greater coverage of thunderstorms. 3. Heat Advisory issued for southeast and central Tennessee valley, and southern Plateau for Thursday. Discussion: Heat Advisory remains across much of the area through early this evening with heat indices of 106 degrees at CHA. Currently SPC meso-analysis shows a very unstable airmass with MLCAPES of 3500-4000 J/Kg across much of the southern two-thirds of the area. Instability less across southwest Virginia due to slight drier boundary layer with dewpoints dropping into the 60s. Very similar to yesterday`s environment with little to no shear but with favorable thermodynamics for damaging winds. DCAPES of 1300 J/Kg with Theta-E difference of 30+ K. PWs of 1.5-1.7 inches and slow movement of the storms will produce a flash flood concern as heavy rainfall over the same areas. The convection will dissipate after sunset with patchy fog development especially where rain occurs. For Thursday, upper ridge begins to weaken with greater coverage of afternoon/evening storms anticipated. Airmass will once again be quite unstable with conditions favorable for damaging winds and localized flash flooding. Another day of hot and muggy conditions with heat indices up to 105 degrees and HeatRisk in the Major category across the southeast and central Tennessee valley, and southern Plateau. Heat advisory remains in effect for these areas. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 107 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Key Messages: 1. Increasing moisture arriving Thursday brings higher rain chances and slightly cooler temperatures through the weekend. Isolated severe storms and localized flash flooding possible each day. 2. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday/Wednesday, with the potential for a very wet period if it stalls nearby. More widespread flash flooding is possible. Discussion: Ensemble Cluster analysis continues to show a weakening upper ridge over the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians. A tropical wave will migrate west to northwest into the region as well bringing in abnormally high PWs. PWs for Monday through Wednesday will range from 1.9 to 2.15 inches. A frontal boundary will move into the Tennessee valley and southern Appalachians early next week. This boundary may become quasi-stationary over the region for a while setting the stage for more widespread flash flood potential. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 725 PM EDT Wed Jun 25 2025 Showers and storms will diminish over the next couple of hours with VFR and light winds through the night. Additional storms are expected again tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...-- Changed Discussion --Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 96 72 93 / 20 30 30 60 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 94 72 91 / 20 40 30 60 Oak Ridge, TN 72 95 72 91 / 20 40 30 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 68 91 69 89 / 20 40 30 60-- End Changed Discussion --&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ Thursday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Hamilton-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs- North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane- Sequatchie-West Polk. VA...NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...DH LONG TERM....DH AVIATION...BW