Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011901 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 PM EDT MON JUN 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT)...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH IN STRENGTH THIS EVENING AS WE LOSE OUR DAYTIME HEATING. SPOTTY LINGERING SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO EXPECTED PARTIAL CLEARING. PATCHY DENSE FOG EXPECTED LATE IN THE NIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN. A WEAK AND SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH THE INCOMING BROAD AND UPPER TROUGH. BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE DRAPED ALONG THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING AND GRADUALLY MOVE FURTHER EAST THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. FOR OUR AREA...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY. ALSO...THE BROAD WEAK UPPER TROUGH IS FINALLY CENTERED OVER OUR AREA TOMORROW. THE CENTER OF THIS CLOSED OFF LOW LOOKS TO BE RIGHT ON TOP OF US. THIS POSITIONING...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY OFF TO OUR EAST...SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OFF TO OUR EAST AS WELL. HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH THAT IT SHOULD BE ABLE TO GENERATE AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A CLOSED MID/UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY. DEEP MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW AND INTO OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. AN INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH AND 850 MB SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPLY SOME LIFT IN NORTHERN AREAS AS WELL...SO WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS NORTH FOR WEDNESDAY. LESS MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD MEAN LOWER PRECIP CHANCES CENTRAL AND SOUTH. THE LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND BY THURSDAY...THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST AS THE 850-700 MB FLOW TURNS N-NW. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND WILL HAVE POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE IN THE AFTERNOON. AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TRANSITIONS INTO AN OPEN TROUGH OVER THE CAROLINAS...IT CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD MOVEMENT...AND EAST TN WILL SEE A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE RIDGES AND TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE PROBLEM IS THAT THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OR INTENSITY OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THE DETAILS. AS A RESULT...THE FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WILL BE BROAD BRUSHED WITH CHANCE POPS THAT MAINLY FOCUS ON A DIURNAL TREND OF HIGHER POPS DURING THE DAY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 64 81 63 82 / 40 40 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 79 62 79 / 60 40 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 62 79 62 79 / 50 40 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 76 60 76 / 60 40 30 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/DGS

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