Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 091900 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KY...STRETCHING GENERALLY ALONG A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TN TO LEXINGTON KY TO HUNTINGTON WV. A WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP TO CREATE A MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AS IT SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND LIKELY STALLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT... SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS REVEAL SOME SMALL DISCREPANCIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGHER PRESSURE IN PLACE. GRADUALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE HIGH RETROGRADES BACK THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WHILE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH PREPARES TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREMENTALLY INCREASE SUNDAY FOR SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION SO KEPT POPS IN A LOW CHANCE RANGE WHILE ADJUSTING PROBABILITIES A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS BRING A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION. TAPERED POPS BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR CONVECTION GOING ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE COOL FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAYED UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES WHILE HOLDING RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MINS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 88 67 90 / 50 30 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 86 66 88 / 40 30 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 86 66 88 / 40 20 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 84 62 86 / 40 30 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/

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