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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 070949
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
449 AM EST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THANKFULL TO SEE THE MAIN AREA
OF RAIN MOVING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. MAY SEE SOME
LINGERING PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...AND I
INCLUDED A MENTION OF LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE COLDEST SPOTS
OF NRN AREAS SUCH AS NRN PLATEAU AND SW VA.

ENJOY THIS BRIEF BREAK IN WET WEATHER TODAY AS GULF MOISTURE QUICKLY
RETURNS TONIGHT. VERY GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING THIS NEXT ROUND OF
WET WEATHER AMONGST MOST MODELS...WITH RAIN REACHING WELL INTO SRN
1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 06Z SUNDAY...THEN ONTO REMAINDER OF NRN
AREAS BEFORE 12Z SUNDAY. THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IS STRONG WITH 850
MB TEMPS WARMING IN THE SMOKIES TO 8 TO 10 DEGS CELSIUS BY 12Z
SUNDAY. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A CHANCE...JUST A CHANCE...
OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET LATE TONIGHT ACROSS NRN MOST
COUNTIES OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...SW VA AND POSSIBLY ERN MOST
PARTS OF JOHNSON AND CARTER COUNTIES IN FAR NE TN.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO MAX/MIN TEMP GRIDS AS GFS
MOS LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY. I DID NUDGE MIN TEMPS UP JUST A BIT
ACROSS SRN AREAS FOR TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...RAIN INCREASES AGAIN SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW NORTH OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE
SOUTH CONTINUES TO BRING MOISTURE OVER IT. FIRST WAVE OF RAIN MOVES
THROUGH SUNDAY THEN ANOTHER SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS AND MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE TN VALLEY MONDAY FOR EVEN MORE RAIN...POSSIBLY
HEAVY. NAM MODEL THEN BRINGS A THIRD LOW PRESSURE AREA NORTHEAST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH THE LOW PASSING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIAN CREST JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SYSTEM
FINALLY EXITING THE REGION BY TUESDAY EVENING. GFS LESS AGGRESSIVE
WITH THE LAST PART OF THE SYSTEM AND HAS LAST LOW FARTHER SOUTH IN
GEORGIA MOVING NE INTO THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.THIS
SCENARIO WOULD MEAN LESS RAIN AFFECTING THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 40S MONDAY
THEN ONLY COOL A FEW DEGREES SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES
MONDAY BEFORE COLD AIR MOVES SOUTHEAST LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW LATE MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING
MAINLY PLATEAU AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT
ONLY DROPPING A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW FREEZING PLATEAU AND PART OF
SW VA SO ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED. HIGHS TUESDAY
MID 30S HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO MID 40S SOUTH. RIVER FLOODING MAY BE A
CONCERN BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY DUE TO THE PROLONGED RAINFALL EVENT
THAT BEGINS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM EARLY SUNDAY
TO TUESDAY HOWEVER LOOK TO BE MOSTLY 2 TO 3 INCHES ON AVERAGE.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT BUT
NEW SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY WITH CHANCE OF RAIN SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
LATE IN THE DAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 47 42 47 44 51 / 20 90 100 100 80
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 44 37 46 43 54 / 20 80 100 100 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 43 36 45 42 48 / 10 80 100 100 80
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 35 44 37 51 / 30 80 90 100 80-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

TG/TD

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