National Weather Service Text Product Display

Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 040805
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
305 AM EST WED DEC 4 2013

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY. ALONG THE FRONT...
ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
BE PATCHY AND MINIMAL. A WARM...MOIST AIR MASS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND
THE WARM FRONT FOR SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.
ASSOCIATED COLD FONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE
MAIN BAND OF CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT WILL STAY TO OUR WEST
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...BUT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT MAY REACH INTO THE AREA BY SUNRISE AND WILL RANGE POPS
FROM 30 WEST TO 20 EAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS CONTINUE TO
BE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH SOME
DIFFERENCES IN THE DETAILS. WILL BE IN FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD...AS MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY
DEEP AND MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION EARLY ON...AND WILL PUSH THROUGH BEFORE MOVING
BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT AS LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA ON SUNDAY. WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...SOME HEAVY RAIN MAY OCCUR AT TIMES AND WITH
THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THE PRECIP THE MULTIDAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY BE QUITE HIGH ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE FLOODING THREAT IN THE HWO.

ON THURSDAY...MODELS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
OVER THE FORECAST AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...WITH A
FAIRLY STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILE ALSO EXPECTED. A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS THREAT IN HWO.

MODELS STILL INDICATE A TEMPORARY BREAK FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN ON SATURDAY...AS COLDER AIR TEMPORARILY MOVES INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. WITH THE SHALLOW COLD AIR MOVING IN...SOME SUBFREEZING AIR MAY
MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND PERHAPS WESTERN
PORTIONS OF OUR SW VA COUNTIES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING
RAIN OR SLEET AS THE PRECIP SURGES BACK IN SATURDAY NIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS MORE LIKELY TO STAY ABOVE
FREEZING...SO WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

DRIER AND COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY BEHIND THE
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. MAY BE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST TUESDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 60 73 56 61 / 20 20 70 90 100
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 57 70 56 63 / 20 20 60 80 80
OAK RIDGE, TN 67 57 69 53 59 / 20 20 70 90 90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 51 69 53 64 / 20 20 50 60 70-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

MJB/LW

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