Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181924 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 324 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...
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ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES IN TONIGHT FROM OUT OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EXTREME SOUTHERN VALLEY AND SWNC. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP APPEAR TO BE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SOUNDINGS SHOW PWS FROM 1.5 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA....THIS COMBINED WITH DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE AN EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WESTERLY FLOW MAY ALSO CAUSE TRAINING OF STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR MARION COUNTY FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING AS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING WITH A FEW AREAS SEEING UP TO 4 INCHES. AFTER MIDNIGHT RAIN CHANCES START DECREASING AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES FURTHER TO OUR EAST. WITH A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND A FEW CLOUD BREAKS TOWARD MORNING...WILL INCLUDE PATCHY 6SM FOG IN FORECAST AREA WIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND 2SM PATCHY FOG UP INTO NETN AND SWVA. BY TOMORROW MORNING THE WAVE SHOULD ALMOST BE INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE MAY BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING AROUND TOMORROW MORNING BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT. TOMORROW AFTERNOON ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO DEVELOP BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FORCING PRESENT. SO TYPICAL SUMMER TIME AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. THE EXACT TIMING OF TOMORROWS CONVECTION DEPENDS ON HOW QUICKLY WE CAN GET RID OF THE EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG AS SOUNDINGS SHOW CAPES ROUGHLY AROUND 2000 J/KG BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOWS WILL BE MILD TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S NORTH TO NEAR 70 SOUTH. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE RAIN CHANCES AREAWIDE FOR THE EARLY PARTS OF THE EXTENDED...AS AN UPPER LOW LINGERS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY...DAYTIME HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC LIFT SHOULD EQUATE TO SOLID CHANCE POPS AND PERHAPS LIKELY IN A FEW SPOTS. BY FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATES THE SOUTHERN STATES NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...WHILE UPPER TROUGHS ARE POSITIONED ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND NORTHEASTERN STATES. HOWEVER... WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY CHANCE POPS ACROSS SW VA AND NE TN...DUE TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND AN OCCASIONAL SHORTWAVE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. TAPERING POPS TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT OR SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SE TN AND SW NC...WHERE I KEPT MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY CLOSER TO THE LOWER TO MID 90S AS ADVERTISED BY GFSX AND ECMX MOS. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S DURING THIS PERIOD FOR OUR NRN COUNTIES...WITH LOWS EACH NIGHT ALSO RUNNING MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS THERE AS WELL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 88 72 92 / 60 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 69 87 70 89 / 50 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 87 70 89 / 50 30 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 84 64 86 / 50 40 30 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/TG

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