Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011851 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS W TN THIS AFTERNOON NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD SEE SLOW EASTWARD MOVEMENT OVERNIGHT OF THE FRONT AND A FEW SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FOR E TN...SW VA AND SW NC. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL WANE IN THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. THE BULK OF RAINFALL FOR THE AREA WILL OCCUR MONDAY. TOMORROW THE FRONT WILL MEANDER INTO THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY RAINFALL. WE NEED THE RAINFALL JUST NOT ALL AT ONCE. PW VALUES FOR MONDAY WILL BE ABOVE 1 INCH TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES. DO NOT EXPECT ANY RIVER FLOODING ISSUES BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW ROADWAYS IMPACTED BY HEAVIER DOWNPOURS DURING THE DAY MONDAY. .LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... ANOTHER EVENING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SITUATED NEAR US. RIGHT NOW MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SOME PLACES WILL HAVE AROUND 1000 J/KG OF CAPE TO WORK WITH (WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE SOUTH) AND SOME INCREASING SHEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. THE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEATING, HOWEVER, LOOK RELATIVELY WEAK WHICH WILL LIKELY HINDER THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. WITH THAT BEING SAID...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM IN OUR AREA COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE MAIN THREATS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST AND TAKES WITH IT MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME LINGERING RAINFALL CHANCES BEHIND THIS SYSTEM, BUT THE WILL BE MORE SPORADIC WITH LIGHTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BEHIND THIS FIRST FRONT AND BE BELOW NORMAL STARTING TUESDAY AND REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH OUR NEXT SYSTEM...THEY GENERALLY DEPICT A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AND OFF INTO THE ATLANTIC BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH. ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY WITH THIS SECONDARY FRONT, BUT CURRENT MODEL OUTPUT SUGGEST THAT MOISTURE WILL MUCH MORE LIMITED LEADING TO ONLY CHANCE RAINFALL AND LIGHTER QPF AMOUNTS. BEHIND THIS SECONDARY FRONT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHTED SLATED TO BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS FORECAST. WITH THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT, WE CAN`T RULE OUT THE SMALL CHANCE TO SEE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW IN THE TOPS OF THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY NIGHT... WILL LEAVE MENTION OF IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW AS PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE ONLY FLIRTING WITH BELOW FREEZING. AFTER THE FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW HAS MOVED OFF TO OUR EAST A RIDGE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ALLOWING US TO QUICKLY WARM UP. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THE AREA GETTING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY AND MANY PLACES REACHING 80 DEGREES BY SUNDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 63 78 60 72 / 50 80 70 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 63 75 58 71 / 50 70 70 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 63 74 59 70 / 50 80 60 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 74 57 70 / 50 70 70 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AC/ABM

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