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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 091900
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 PM EDT WED JUL 9 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...-- Changed Discussion --CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER CENTRAL KY...STRETCHING GENERALLY ALONG
A LINE FROM CLARKSVILLE TN TO LEXINGTON KY TO HUNTINGTON WV. A WARM
AND HUMID AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL HELP TO CREATE A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THIS COLD FRONT...AS IT SLOWLY
DRIFTS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
LIKELY STALLS ALONG THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...WITH CONVECTION BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AND
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS REVEAL SOME SMALL
DISCREPANCIES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...AND WILL GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS
A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER
TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED OUT THROUGH THE CANADIAN MARITIMES BY THE
WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WITH HIGHER PRESSURE
IN PLACE. GRADUALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE HIGH RETROGRADES BACK
THROUGH THE WESTERN STATES WHILE ANOTHER LONG WAVE TROUGH PREPARES
TO TAKE UP RESIDENCE OVER THE MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL INCREMENTALLY INCREASE SUNDAY FOR SOME DIURNAL
CONVECTION SO KEPT POPS IN A LOW CHANCE RANGE WHILE ADJUSTING
PROBABILITIES A LITTLE HIGHER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS BRING
A SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE REGION ENHANCING THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION.
TAPERED POPS BACK ONLY SLIGHTLY ON TUESDAY AS A COOL FRONT WILL BE
MAKING ITS WAY SOUTH TOWARD THE REGION AND THIS BOUNDARY COULD
SPARK SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO KEEP JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION GOING ON WEDNESDAY AS MODELS HINT AT THE
POSSIBILITY OF THE COOL FRONT BEING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.
STAYED UNDER MAX TEMP GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES WHILE HOLDING
RELATIVELY CLOSE TO SUGGESTED MINS.-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 88 67 90 / 50 30 10 10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 86 66 88 / 40 30 10 10
OAK RIDGE, TN 66 86 66 88 / 40 20 10 10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 84 62 86 / 40 30 10 10-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

DMG/

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