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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 190747
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
347 AM EDT SUN MAY 19 2013

.SHORT TERM...-- Changed Discussion --(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAKENING UPPER TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND
TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS BEING EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY MORNING. PLENTY
OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SHORT-TERM. MODELS SHOW CAPE OF 1500-2000
J/KG FOR THE PLATEAU WITH LESSER AMOUNTS EAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON-
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ONCE AGAIN BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY-TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL HAIL UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

FOR TONIGHT...ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUD COVER FROM
UPPER LOW MOVING EAST WILL ALLOW FOR A GOOD AMOUNT OF RADIATIONAL
FOG DEVELOPMENT AREA-WIDE. HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG FOR
TONIGHT..SOME OF THE FOG WILL LIKELY BE DENSE.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...BY MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL STILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW
WILL BE CO-LOCATED NEAR NORTHERN NEBRASKA AND BY MONDAY EVENING
EXPECT ANOTHER LOW TO FORM FARTHER SOUTH OVER NE TEXAS. ALL THIS
OCCURRING TO THE WEST WILL HELP DRIVE TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OVER THE
BEGINNING HALF OF THE WEEK AND MAKE CONDITIONS RATHER MUGGY AND
HUMID.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE OVER OUR AREA ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL
HELP INHIBIT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE. IT WILL NOT BE UNTIL THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST THAT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD BE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. COMPARING THE LONGER RANGE MODELS THIS MORNING ARE
NEARLY OPPOSITE FROM LAST 00Z RUNS. THE GFS IS SLOWER WITH FROPA
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WHILE THE ECMWF IS QUICKER AND
DRIER BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS KEEP RELATIVELY
DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK.-- End Changed Discussion --

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 64 88 66 89 / 60 30 10 10 20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 64 87 65 88 / 60 60 20 10 30
OAK RIDGE, TN 79 65 87 65 88 / 60 50 10 10 20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 76 59 85 60 86 / 70 70 40 10 30-- End Changed Discussion --

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

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