-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
565
FXUS64 KMRX 071058 AAA
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Morristown TN
658 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT AND LONG TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 154 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

1. Today marks the transition to a more active pattern, with a
steady uptick in afternoon and evening rain chances expected
through the week.

Discussion:

Chantal will pull away to the northeast today push offshore along
the New England coastline, while weak troughing settles in across
the eastern United States and upper ridging shifts to the desert
southwest. A weak shortwave embedded in the developing trough will
move east across Kentucky today, allowing for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms across middle Tennessee. Some convection
is expected across the plateau and the mountains today as well but
expect more limited coverage this far east. This general upper
level pattern will hold through much of the week as another
shortwave moves through the Ohio valley and Kentucky late Tuesday
night into Wednesday followed by additional disturbances later in
the week. In the lower levels, we`ll keep a tap on western Gulf
moisture through the week, which will allow for a notable uptick
in afternoon and evening rain chances, especially for Wednesday
onward. Although Wednesday may feature a few stronger storms with
(on a relative basis) better shear in place due to the Ohio
valley shortwave and surface based CAPE values around or slightly
above 1,500 J/kg possible, nothing really points to any notable
severe weather chances through the period.

Lastly, temperatures will be right around normal thanks to less
ridging aloft, and additional cloud cover and rain chances from a
more active pattern. It will be humid however, so muggy conditions
seem to be on tap.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. High resolution
guidance is still showing the possibility of some ISOLD SHRA/TSRA
near KCHA and KTRI this afternoon and evening. Still think that a
mention of VCTS for a few hours will suffice so that`s how I`ve
played it in the 12z TAF package.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             95  72  95  72 /  20  10  60  20
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  93  72  93  72 /  30  10  50  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       92  70  92  71 /  30  10  60  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              90  68  90  68 /  20  10  50  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CD
LONG TERM....CD
AVIATION...CD