Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 282359 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 759 PM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .AVIATION...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST TO THE APPALACHIAN SPINE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME...A MOISTURE LADEN DISTURBANCE BUILDS EAST NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC STATES. THE MODELS INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WHICH EXTENDS ACROSS THE GREAT VALLEY AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EXTENDING UNTIL AROUND 18Z MONDAY. DUE TO THE SOUTHERN ROUTE OF THE THE GULF DISTURBANCE AND THE EASTERLY FLOW WITHIN THE WEAK INVERTED LOW LEVEL TROUGH...IT APPEARS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY...ESPECIALLY AT TYS AND TRI. THEREFORE...FLIGHT CONDITION SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT THESE TERMINALS WITH A POSSIBILITY FOR A COUPLE DROPS OF RAIN AROUND TYS AROUND 12-17Z MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR SOME MEASURABLE RAINFALL AROUND 09-15Z AT CHA BUT PROBABILITY STILL LOW ENOUGH TO KEEP THIS ACTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE TERMINAL. AFTER THE SOUTHEAST FEATURE MOVES AWAY ON MONDAY...WOULD EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS TO IMPROVE FOR THE LAST SIX TO EIGHT HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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