Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 020801 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 345 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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THE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN REMAINS UNCHANGED ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN PLACE WITH A CORRIDOR OF FASTER FLOW BRINGING A SEEMINGLY NEVER ENDING NUMBER OF SHORTER WAVELENGTH FEATURES ACROSS THE MID SOUTH. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN PROGRESSING EAST ACROSS MID AND EAST TENNESSEE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ONE OF THESE FEATURES. ANOTHER WILL EMERGE FROM THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LATER TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON SHORT WAVE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE REFLECTION AS LOW PRESSURE ADVANCES EAST ACROSS KENTUCKY. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL BE AROUND 1.70 TO AS HIGHS AS 2 INCHES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF MINOR FLOODING. ALSO...CONVECTIVE GUSTS WITH A FEW OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED UPDRAFTS MAY EXCEED SEVERE LIMITS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE BUOYANT. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING TO START THE PERIOD AS THE SURFACE LOW CENTER WILL BE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL KY. THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF THE DAY...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY LOWERING TO A CHANCE FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH THE NAM AND GFS DIFFER ON THE AMOUNT OF DRYING. THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE ON SATURDAY...WITH THE NAM DEVELOPING A 850 MB LOW OVER THE MO BOOTHEEL THAT TRACKS UP THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE GFS HAS A MORE ILL-DEFINED WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW THAT HAS MOST PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH. THE ECMWF GIVES SOME SUPPORT TO THE NAM SOLUTION. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE WETTER NAM AND HAVE LIKELY POPS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWER POPS TO A CHANCE ON SUNDAY DUE TO THESE MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND SLIGHTLY WARMER PERIOD SHOULD COME ON MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER THE REGION AHEAD OF A DEEPENING MIDWEST TROUGH. WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING MONDAY AND TUESDAY BUT WILL FAVOR A DIURNAL TREND TO THE POPS. THE APPROACHING MIDWEST TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT MAY BRING A RETURN OF HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 81 69 82 69 / 90 80 70 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 79 67 79 69 / 100 80 70 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 78 68 79 69 / 100 80 70 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 65 78 66 / 90 80 70 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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