Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 311851 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 251 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW)...
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THE WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT BROUGHT A FEW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAS MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA AND LEFT BEHIND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TODAY. MOST PLACES WILL BE DRY TONIGHT AS WE LACK ANY MAJOR SOURCE OF LIFT, BUT SOME HIGH RES MODELS STILL WANT TO SPIT OUT QPF IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. WENT MOSTLY DRY, BUT A SHOWER OR 2 COULD POP UP BEFORE THE NIGHT IS DONE. COULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLEARING SKIES, BUT AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD. WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80`S WITH THE CLOUD COVERAGE TODAY, EXPECT THEM TO BE WARMER TOMORROW AS WE GET MORE SUNSHINE OVERHEAD. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...UPPER RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS A BIT ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH NO SIGNIFICANT RETURN FLOW OF MOISTURE SHOULD BE A FAIRLY STAGNANT WEATHER PATTERN. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONFINED TO THE EASTERN/NORTHERN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR WED AND THU AFTERNOON. A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE AND A BIT MORE MOISTURE POSSIBLE FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...SO WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 90 70 91 / 10 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 88 69 90 / 10 10 10 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 89 69 89 / 10 10 10 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 62 87 64 87 / 10 10 10 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/LW

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