Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221843 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 243 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CENTERED TO OUR WEST...AND THE RIDGE WILL SHARPEN A BIT TURNING UPPER FLOW MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE PERIOD. IT APPEARS THE NEXT WEAK IMPULSE TO AFFECT THE AREA WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS AFFECTING AT LEAST NORTHEAST ZONES. WILL CARRY LIKELY POPS FOR NORTHEAST...TAPERING OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. ON SATURDAY...APPEARS INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAKER BUT MAY ALSO HAVE MORE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL AND LESS CAPPING...SO WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS ALL ZONES EXCEPT SLIGHT CHANCE FAR SOUTHWEST. STILL LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE WITH THE POTENTIAL MCS THIS EVENING...WILL KEEP THE MENTION IN THE HWO. WILL NOT ARGUE MUCH WITH MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL GENERALLY TRIM A BIT OFF MAX TEMPS FOR TOMORROW GIVEN RECENT TRENDS AND EXPECTED CLOUDS/CONVECTION. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION AT LEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROMOTING CONTINUED VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS. WITH THE RIDGE MORE CLOSELY CENTERED OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...ANY CONVECTION THAT FIRES WILL BE MAINLY DIURNAL IN NATURE AND MUCH MORE CONFINED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU. HAVE A SOLID CHANCE POP FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING...BUT BY MONDAY AND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY...THINK THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THANKS TO A STRONGER CAP. HIGHS WILLS REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...WITH AMBLE SUNSHINE BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. MODELS THEN DIFFER FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK. THE GFS WANTS TO BRING A BROAD TROUGH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION ON THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW RIDGING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. HAVE LOW-END CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW... AND WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS. OTHERWISE...BY FRIDAY THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA...AND KEEP THINGS MOSTLY ON THE DRY SIDE ONCE AGAIN TO CLOSE OUT THE WORK WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 73 96 73 93 / 10 20 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 91 72 91 / 30 40 30 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 92 71 92 / 30 40 30 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 88 67 87 / 60 50 40 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/AMP

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