Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181918 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 318 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)... LIGHT RAIN IS BEGINNING TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AT A SLOW PACE...BUT OUR SW NC COUNTIES SHOULD SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM AROUND 00Z ONWARD ACCORDING TO THE RAP13 AND HRRR. THERE WILL BE A SHARP POP GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA FROM SE TO NW...WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN CLAY COUNTY NC TO NO POPS IN THE COUNTIES BORDERING THE PLATEAU. MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY WITH THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF PRECIP...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE VALLEY. WILL HAVE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE BLEEDING INTO CHA-TYS-TRI TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS VERY SLOW TO MOVE EAST...AND SO POPS WILL BE EXTENDED/RAISED INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL BE WARMEST IN THE NORTHERN PLATEAU WHERE SOME SUN MAY BE POSSIBLE...IN THE LOWER 70S...AND COOLEST EAST UNDER CLOUDS/PRECIP. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... BY SATURDAY NIGHT UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY BE MOVING TO THE COAST AND PULLING MOISTURE NORTHEAST. CLOUDS WILL LINGER ALONG THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT BUT RAINFALL CHANCES DROP TO LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO AND WESTERN TN VALLEY TO INFLUENCE THE FORECAST AREA WITH SKIES CLEARING AND SUNSHINE RETURNING EASTR SUNDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT SHIFTS EAST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN SATURDAY...MOSTLY LOWER TO MID 70S POSSIBLY UPPER 70S PLATEAU AND SOUTHEAST TN. LOWER PRESSURE DEVELOPS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEAK TROUGH FORMS OVER THE MS VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT. GFS FASTEST WITH THE SPREAD OF MOISTURE EAST FROM THIS SYSTEM MONDAY WITH SHOWERS STARTING AS SOON AS MONDAY MORNING. CANADIAN/UKMET AND ECMWF SLOW SYSTEM DOWN WITH APPROACH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS MONDAY AFTERNOON BUT BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WITH FRONT TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT BUILD BACK IN TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. NEW SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY CROSSES THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY. SOME CLOUDS SPREAD INTO NORTHERN SECTIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT EARLY THURSDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WARM FRONT. MAIN FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE BULK OF THE WEATHER STAYS ACROSS THE NORTHERN STATES UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THEN INDUCES FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MARCHES EAST INTO THE TN VALLEY FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. LOOKS LIKE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION WILL BE OUTSIDE OF FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES STAY NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 69 50 77 / 20 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 48 67 48 75 / 20 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 47 70 48 76 / 10 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 66 45 74 / 30 20 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/TD

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