Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290802 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...STRONG WARM ADVECTION TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON FAVORING NORTHERN LOCATIONS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS EVENING. WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...RAINFALL ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE AREA. SNOW WILL THEN BECOME AN UPSLOPE EVENING ON FRIDAY MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF THE ARE BY AFTERNOON. LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE VALLEY. ONE TO TWO INCHES IS POSSIBLE AT NORMALLY FAVORED UPSLOPE LOCATIONS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS ARE HAVING CONSIDERABLE DIFFICULTY WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH POOR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY AND MODEL AGREEMENT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS GOOD TO START THE PERIOD...BUT IS RATHER POOR FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THEN THE WEEKEND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. AS NOTED...MODEL AGREEMENT AND CONSISTENCY POOR...WITH THE CANADIAN FURTHEST NORTH/WARMEST AND THE EUROPEAN MUCH WEAKER/FURTHER SOUTH AND COLDER. GFS IS IN BETWEEN BUT CLOSER TO THE CANADIAN. FOR NOW WILL TREND A BIT COLDER AND ALLOW FOR MORE SNOW POSSIBILITY...BUT WILL STILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE PRECIP RAIN IN THE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE TO TALK ABOUT THIS SYSTEM IN THE HWO. AFTER ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS END MONDAY...SHOULD BE DRY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. BY LATE IN THE PERIOD THE ECMWF WANTS TO HAVE ANOTHER SYSTEM AT LEAST BRUSH THE AREA...WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS DRY. WILL INCLUDE A SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON WEDNESDAY FOR NOW. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 55 34 45 25 / 20 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 31 40 20 / 30 40 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 52 31 40 21 / 30 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 48 27 35 15 / 40 50 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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