Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270746 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING...BRINGING SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY TO THE AREA. AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS ALOFT...SOME SNOW HAS BEGUN TO MIX WITH RAIN AT THE LOWER LEVELS BELOW 1500 TO 2000 FT. ELSEWHERE ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW WILL CONTINUE OR HAS ALREADY OCCURRED AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL ALOFT. AS A RESULT...ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS SYNOPTIC LIFT PEAKS BETWEEN 09-12Z. ALONG THE MOUNTAINS...TOTALS BETWEEN 2 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHEST PEAKS...WITH TOTALS CLOSER TO 1 INCH IN THE LOWER ELEVATION VALLEY AREAS IN THE TRI-CITIES/ABINGDON METRO. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS THROUGH NOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. BETWEEN 12Z TO 15Z...LIFT AND MOISTURE BEGINS TO WANE AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL HAVE MENTIONABLE POPS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST TN AND PORTIONS OF SW VIRGINIA THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON AS WEAK OROGRAPHIC LIFT MAY HELP MAINTAIN SOME LIGHT SNOW THERE. OTHERWISE...CLEARING WILL OCCUR GRADUALLY FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AND EVENING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT AND A HARD FREEZE AS LOWS PLUNGE INTO THE LOWER 20S IN MOST AREAS BY DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... PERIODS OF ZONAL FLOW OR SOME DEGREE OF UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFICATION THROUGH THE LONG TERM. MODELS GENERALLY CONSISTENT FROM EARLIER RUNS AND SUPPORT A DRY FORECAST FROM FRIDAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE SUNDAY. STILL SEEING SOME VERY LIGHT QPF ADVERTISED JUST OFF TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT THAT MOVES FROM THE MID-MS VALLEY TO OHIO VALLEY REGION...SO IT LOOKS WISE TO STAY DRY HERE FOR THOSE PERIODS. RAIN CHANCES DO APPEAR NEEDED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT OUT TO WEDNESDAY DUE TO A COUPLE OF WEAK COLD FRONTS...PLUS SOME POTENTIAL FOR WEAK E-SE UPLSOPE FLOW AS SURFACE RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE NE STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK. WOULD BET ON MOST LIKELY PERIOD AROUND MONDAY TIMEFRAME FOR SHOWERS WHERE GRIDS WILL CARRY 40 TO 50 PERCENT POPS. LITTLE CHANGES MADE OVERALL. STRAYED A BIT FROM THE COOL MOS MIN TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN WE SHOULD SEE STRENGTHENING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIPS EAST TO ALONG THE SE ATLANTIC COAST. BLENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOKED VERY GOOD FOR ALL BUT SUNDAY...WHERE I KEPT MAXES IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GFSX/ECMX MOS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 45 25 47 34 / 10 0 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 43 23 43 30 / 30 0 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 43 24 44 31 / 20 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 20 39 26 / 60 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK- JOHNSON-MORGAN-NORTHWEST CARTER-SCOTT TN-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ AMP/TG

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