Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 011831 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 231 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...A VERY UNSETTLED SHORT TERM PERIOD. ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN QUITE MOIST AND ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE REGION AS DISTURBANCES ROTATE THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH OVER EASTERN US. WIND FIELDS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE AND CLOUDS WILL HELP TO SUPPRESS INSTABILITY A BIT...HOWEVER...SOME CONVECTION STILL COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE VERY HIGH PW VALUES OVER THE AREA...FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR WIDESPREAD FLOODING TO ISSUE ANY FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME..BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING. WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE BOTH FLOODING AND SEVERE THREAT IN HWO. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM MAV TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A PREVAILING LONGWAVE UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR HIGH CHANCES FOR HEAVY PRECIPITATION INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ONGOING AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...BEFORE TAPERING OFF BY FRIDAY MORNING AS THE SUBTLE SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW CLEARS THE AREA. ON FRIDAY...MODELS ARE PROGGING THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER-LOW MAY BE MORE FOCUSED OVER THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY...SO MODELS ARE LESS BULLISH ON PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...DEEP MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD DIURNAL COVERAGE ON FRIDAY...SO LIKELY POPS SEEMED WARRANTED /WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS BEING THE BIGGEST THREATS/. AFTER SOMEWHAT OF A BRIEF LULL FRIDAY NIGHT... MODELS SHOW ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN ON SATURDAY /INDEPENDENCE DAY/...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...ESPECIALLY BY THE AFTERNOON....SO HAVE KEPT LIKELY POPS GOING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-TROUGH AXIS PASSES MERCIFICALLY TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE UPPER-RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TRYING TO NOSE IN BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...A REASONABLE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. PWATS AS HIGH AS 1.7 TO 2.O INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THIS STRETCH. SOUNDING PROFILES ALSO SUGGEST AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...WITH A TALL/SKINNY CAPE PROFILE OF 1000-1500 J/KG AND A DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER. ALL THIS...COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED HIGH STORM COVERAGE AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS/LOW SHEAR SETS THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL/FLOODING CONCERNS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO NEED TO MONITOR FOR FLASH WATCHES/WARNINGS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 69 82 70 85 / 70 80 80 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 78 68 82 / 70 80 80 70 OAK RIDGE, TN 69 79 69 82 / 70 80 80 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 78 66 78 / 70 80 80 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/AMP

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