Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 042021 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 321 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...
-- Changed Discussion --
STRENGTHENING SW-NE UPPER JET WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION MOVING OVER SW VA ON THURSDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE GOOD LIFT OVERNIGHT INTO MID DAY THURDAY ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. MODEST PRESSURE FALLS OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS HAVE PRODUCED GOOD SOUTHWESTERLY GRADIENT WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF E TN AND PORTIONS OF SW VA AN SW NC. THESE WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT SLIDES THROUGH THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU INTO THE WE TN VALLEY EARLY TONIGHT. FLOOD WATCH AND WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY. SNOW MELT HAS BEEN UNDERWAY ALONG KY BORDER AND ACROSS SW VA. MELT ALONE HAS BEEN CAUSING SOME TROUBLE AND SITUATION LOOKS TO WORSEN OVERNIGHT WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.00. SHALLOW POST FRONTAL AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE NW AROUND MIDNIGHT. DRAMATIC TEMPERATURE DROPS CAN BE EXPECTED IN FRONTAL ZONE. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL GO THROUGH TRANSITION AS THE COLD LAYER UNDERCUTS WARMER AIR ALOFT. FREEZING RAIN ON ELEVATED SURFACES WILL LIKELY GIVE WAY TO A LONGER PERIOD OF SLEET AS THE RELATIVELY DEEP WARM LAYER SHRINKS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. INITIAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL HINDER ICE...SLEET AND EVENTUAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. USED THICKNESS TOOLS FOR PRECIPITATION TYPE. USED LOCAL TOOLS FOR ACCUMULATIONS LEANING TOWARD A LOW END SOLUTION FAVORING SLEET AND RLATIVELY MODERATE RAIN RATES. MODELS SNOW FALL OUTPUT AND CURRENT FORECAST MAY BE UNDERDONE FOR MID DAY THURSDAY FOR CENTRAL VALLEY AND E AREAS. WEAK LIFR REMAINS INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MODEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL THROUGH THURSDAY. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY RESULTING IN A VERY COLD MORNING ON FRIDAY AS THE SKY CLEARS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL PLUNGE INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN MANY SPOTS...AND UPPER TEENS TO 20 DEGREES OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN VALLEY. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A NORTHERLY WIND WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS ON THE COOL SIDE FOR FRIDAY DESPITE SOME SUNSHINE...WITH HIGHS AT OR A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THE FREEZING MARK IN MANY AREAS. WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN HOWEVER...A DRY FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...ALONG WITH A MUCH WELCOME WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL RETURN TO NEAR SEASONABLE NORMS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S...AND EVEN THE LOWER 60S BY THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION LOOKS AS IF IT MAY BE TOWARD THE END OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SWEEPS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 34 37 21 42 / 90 100 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 32 35 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 30 33 16 38 / 90 100 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 32 35 12 34 / 90 100 10 10
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON- JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST /6 PM CST/ THIS EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HAWKINS- JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-MORGAN-SCOTT TN. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 AM EST /3 AM CST/ TO 4 PM EST /3 PM CST/ THURSDAY FOR BLEDSOE-MARION-RHEA-ROANE-SEQUATCHIE. VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON. FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR LEE- RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& $$ SON/AMP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.