Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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914 FXUS64 KMRX 220648 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 248 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
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In the wake of the cold front clouds will scatter out by late morning leaving mostly sunny skies. Breezy northerly winds will commence especially after clouds clear and will persist into the afternoon before dissipating after sunset. Daytime high temperatures will be noticeably cooler than yesterday and a couple of degrees cooler than seasonal norms. Overnight, high clouds are expected to increase which may pose a challenge when it comes to freezing temperatures over NE TN and SW VA. Current forecast has freezing temps mentioned in these areas however if cloud cover is more dense, then those freezing temperatures may never be realized. Will hold off on issuing a freeze warning for these areas and let the following shift examine the potential of a freeze. In the meantime, will mention the possibility of freezing temperatures in the hazardous weather outlook this morning. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Surface high pressure will be across the Mid Atlantic and Appalachians on Thursday, with a dry NW flow through the mid and upper levels. The eastward progression of the ridge starts to turn the low level flow to a southerly direction, but moisture appears too limited and shallow to warrant any PoPs on Thursday. Dry conditions and a warming trend will continue through Friday night as an amplified mid/upper ridge makes its way east across the region. With the ridge to our east and a closed low tracking from the Plains to the mid MS Valley, moisture will be increasing on Saturday. A shortwave trough extending from the closed low will provide some lift for rising PoPs through the day Saturday, with likely PoPs Saturday night as the negatively-tilted trough moves through and the LLJ picks up to 40-50 kts. The trailing cold front remains north of our area as the low-to-midlevel flow remains S to SW, so we will remain in the warm sector with mild temperatures and slight chance PoPs into Monday. Another low pressure system develops over the Plains and tracks along the front into the Ohio Valley. This will bring an increase in rain chances for Monday night/Tuesday.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 41 63 46 / 10 0 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 58 36 62 42 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 35 63 43 / 10 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 30 59 38 / 0 0 0 0
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