Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 220641 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 240 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...THEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE ON THE WEAK SIDE FOR TODAY...BUT STILL ENOUGH TO CARRY A CHANCE OF THUNDER ALL ZONES ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SHOWERS. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TONIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A CLEARING SKY. WILL GENERALLY GO A BIT BELOW MAV TEMPS FOR TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. MAV TEMPS FOR TONIGHT GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THR0UGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EXTENDED FOR A QUIET AND WARM WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODELS THEN BRING IN A COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN HOWEVER THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY REGARDING DETAILS SUCH AS AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND LOWERED POPS SLIGHTLY MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR SATURDAY. A WEAK WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES IN ON MONDAY WITH A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 46 73 46 / 70 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 73 45 71 44 / 70 10 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 43 71 44 / 70 10 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 71 40 69 40 / 70 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/MJB

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