Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210816 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 AM EST Wed Feb 21 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today through Thursday)... Frontal boundary and attendant precip field will approach the Plateau later this afternoon, while pre-frontal scattered showers will come northward from GA today. Warm weather will continue today with more near record highs. POPS fairly similar this afternoon and Thursday, but the battle between the front and the southeastern ridge makes me a bit suspicious that Thursday may be a bit drier than forecast, as the NAM QPF fields suggest. .LONG TERM...(Thursday Night through Tuesday)... Model trend has been to slow down the arrival of significant precipitation, as the eastern US ridge holds and the frontal boundary stays further to the west. There may a few showers around mainly north and western areas early Thu night, but expect Friday to be dry as the front lifts a bit further north. The front is forecast to edge closer on Saturday before pushing through the area late Saturday night and early Sunday. Will keep mention of thunder in the forecast Saturday into Saturday night. The risk of prolonged heavier rains and flooding looks diminished, but still enough of a risk to keep mention in HWO for Saturday night/early Sunday. A weak wave may bring some additional showers on Monday, then Tuesday is expected to be dry. It will be very warm for the early part of the period, and even behind the front temperatures are expected to remain above seasonal normals.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 78 62 78 59 / 50 50 30 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 60 76 59 / 50 40 50 20 Oak Ridge, TN 76 60 74 59 / 50 60 60 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 56 73 54 / 50 30 50 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GC/LW

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