Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260741 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 341 AM EDT Wed Jul 26 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Little change in area weather through the short term with a ridge of high pressure in control. This will continue the trend of hot and humid conditions with afternoon temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s and 90s across most valley locations. With the strong daytime heating and low level moisture in place...expect another afternoon/evening of normal summertime isolated diurnal convection. This activity should mainly be focused over higher terrain. A few storms may continue into the overnight hours across far southeastern locations where a weak impulse will be moving through the upper flow. .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...Models in decent agreement overall, although some differences in the details including the handling of the cold front that moves through early in the long term period. Forecast confidence is about average for this time of year. A cold front will be approaching Thursday/Thursday night and will push through our area Friday. Expect numerous showers and thunderstorms especially late Thursday night into Friday. Model soundings show significant shear ahead of this front, although at this point the timing of the stronger shear is somewhat out of sync with the better instability. However, a lead upper trough out ahead of the front may help with destabilization and forcing Thursday afternoon and evening, and enough shear indicated at that time to aid in storm organization so there is a risk for severe storms during that time. And given the possibility of better shear ahead of the front on Friday, there will continue to be a risk for severe storms Friday as well. Will mention this threat in the HWO. Once the front moves through, drier and cooler air will move in for the weekend. While some warming will occur, models show the drier air lingering through Tuesday, so will go with a precip free forecast Saturday through Tuesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 93 74 91 75 / 10 10 30 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 92 72 90 72 / 10 10 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 92 72 90 73 / 10 10 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 90 69 88 69 / 10 10 50 60 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MJB/LW

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