Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280727 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 327 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE RIDGE HOLDING FOR TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...ALTHO THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. A LIGHT SE TO S LOW LEVEL FLOW MAY BE ESTABLISHED BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...BUT DON`T EXPECT ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR MORE THAN A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW. MAX TEMPS SHOULD RUN A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY WITH MINS VERY MUCH NEAR NORMAL TONIGHT. CLOSELY FOLLOWED THE GFS MOS TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...OVERALL PATTERN IS CHANGING AS A MORE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SHOWER CHANCES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. SATURDAY THE BEST CHANCE IS OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BUT MOSTLY DRY NORTHEAST. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY THEN SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES MONDAY. FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS FARTHER NORTHEAST AND RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE ATMOSPHERE BUT WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH FROM ERIKA ALONG THE EAST COAST THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH AFTER MONDAY AS THE TRACK OF ERIKA FARTHER EAST WOULD LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA MOSTLY DRY BEING MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S EXCEPT ONLY LOWER 80S SUNDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND RAIN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 68 86 69 / 10 10 30 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 67 86 66 / 10 10 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 86 66 85 67 / 10 10 20 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 84 59 84 62 / 10 10 20 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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