Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300725 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A DEEP SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MORE GULF MOISTURE INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...A WEAK UPPER- LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY WILL COMBINE WITH THIS INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE REGION A GOOD CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND EXPECTED ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU DURING THE EVENING HOURS /BEFORE THINGS SLOWLY BEGIN TO TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT/. REASONABLE CHANCE POPS WILL EXIST ON MONDAY GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE BUT...STARTING NEXT WEEK THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MUCH MORE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WILL THEN BUILDS BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN U.S. THE ONE EXCEPTION COULD BE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION ON TUESDAY...WHICH MAY PROMOTE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HOWEVER...DO NOT THINK IT WILL MAKE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO MAKE MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE...SO STILL HAVE A 30 POP FOR TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORM EACH DAY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 89 71 87 71 / 50 50 60 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 88 71 86 69 / 40 50 60 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 88 71 84 69 / 40 50 60 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 89 67 85 65 / 30 50 60 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/AMP

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