Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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345 FXUS64 KMRX 251843 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 243 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Monday)... Current water vapor imagery and RAP upper air analysis indicate a longwave trough across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS with westerly flow aloft across the forecast area. Seeing a few echoes showing up currently on radar across SW NC and extreme SE TN. The atmosphere is relatively dry with PW values ranging from 0.8-1.0 inches and not seeing much more than sprinkles making it to the ground. In addition the clouds associated with the radar echoes are 10-15 kft. The mid to high cloud have hung on much longer today than forecast thanks to a strong 100-120 kt jet across the Ohio River Valley that extends into New England. This jet has put the forecast are in the favored right entrance region with just enough moisture for widespread mid to high clouds. These clouds will continue to clear this afternoon and evening as the jet lifts out to the northeast. A cool and dry airmass will settle across the region tonight. PW values will drop further into the 0.5-0.7 inch range. These values are actually near the minimum readings observed for late June. This drier airmass will also feature cooler than average lows with temperatures on Monday morning in the 50s areawide. Lows in the upper 40s are forecast in the higher elevations. Dry conditions will continue on Monday as another upper level jet rotates around the base of the longwave trough. Expect an increase in high clouds throughout the day. Highs will be below normal once again with temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s. .LONG TERM (Monday Night through Sunday)... Strong ridge of high pressure over the western U.S. will flatten mid-week, allowing some shortwaves into the northern U.S. that will push a frontal boundary south of the Ohio Valley late week. But the flattened western ridge will also allow the Bermuda High to reassert itself over the eastern Atlantic, which will bring higher dewpoints into our region by late week. The northern front will interact with the southern moisture to result in scattered convection from late week through the weekend across our area. Overall, temperatures will hover near normal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 61 83 62 82 / 0 0 10 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 59 80 59 79 / 0 0 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 58 80 58 81 / 0 0 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 77 54 76 / 0 10 10 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ MA/GC

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