Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281852 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 252 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND MONDAY/...
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A SURFACE HIGH THAT MOVED INTO THE REGION IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE YESTERDAY HAS BROUGHT BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TO THE REGION IN THE FORM OF A COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS. AMPLE SUNSHINE HAS PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT A NW FLOW HAS HELPED TO KEEP TEMPS LOWER IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING ONCE AGAIN. A COMFORTABLE NIGHT WILL BE ON TAP...WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AGAIN. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA ON MONDAY. THIS UPPER-LEVEL WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD HELP BRING SOME CLOUDS IN BY THE AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS /MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AND MOUNTAINS/. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY DURING THE DAY. THE NAM SHOWS A LINE OF STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLY MOVING IN DURING THE EVENING FROM KENTUCKY AS WELL ALONG A WEAK FRONT. BASED ON TIMING...THIS WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLATEAU AT OR AROUND 00Z...AND SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER AS IT MOVES EAST. THICKNESS VALUES/TEMPS ALOFT ALSO INCREASE AS THE WINDS VEER BACK TO THE SW ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS TO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER GIVEN THE AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE AND LONG DAYLIGHT HOURS THIS TIME OF YEAR. .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... WILL BE IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION AS A SERIES OF SYSTEMS MOVES THROUGH. THE FIRST IN THE SERIES WILL BE A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL MOVE IN EARLY IN THE PERIOD... MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT ACROSS THE AREA ALLOWING SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FOR HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS. THEN...A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVES IN AROUND THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. ACCOMPANYING THIS FEATURE WILL BE DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEAK TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THIS WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH DOES FLATTEN A BIT FOR FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A BOUNDARY SETTLE SOMEWHERE OVER THE REGION. ADDITIONAL IMPULSES RIDING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE A CHANCE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 62 89 69 86 / 0 10 40 70 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 60 86 67 83 / 0 10 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 59 87 67 83 / 0 20 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 83 64 81 / 0 20 40 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/MJB

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