Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160658 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 258 AM EDT Sat Sep 16 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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There will be very little change to the pattern over the next 24 hours as high pressure from the surface through 700 mb remains stationary over the WV/OH/western PA region. Thus, the forecast will follow persistence with a slight warming trend. High-res GOES-16 microphysics imagery shows fog is isolated to valleys this morning, much less than yesterday, so no advisory will be needed. Forecast soundings show a stable column and a very light flow today, although the HRRR develops isolated afternoon showers. It did the same yesterday so it will be ignored. A warming trend will continue, with some mid 80s in the central and southern Valley today. More valley fog will be possible tonight. .LONG TERM... At the beginning of this period, we will be in a quiet pattern with ridges both at the surface and aloft. The closest upstream cold front will be well to the west, stretching NNW-SSE from Wisconsin to Texas. To our east in the Atlantic, Tropical system Jose will be moving northward off the Carolina coast. Looks like the upper ridge will hold in place for most of the duration of this period, although it looks like we will have some chances for scattered afternoon convection on the plateau by Tuesday afternoon and across more of the area Wed - Fri afternoons. We should have a weak upper level disturbance push through the ridge around Wednesday helping to get more lift and weak storms going. After the cool readings so far this September, this extended forecast looks to have temps closer to normal, as the main frontal boundaries stay away to our northwest. Looking well ahead, at the end of the 00Z operational GFS, it shows a tropical system on Day 10 (a week from Monday) moving into GA, that is this verified could affect us. However, most GFS 18z ensemble members have this system curving northward sooner than the 00z Operational GFS, staying farther east, with a path that would have little impact on our area. This tropical system is the Tropical Disturbance, now out in the middle of the Atlantic, about 12N/47W. We can keep watching this one, but it`s a long way away right now.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 86 65 85 66 / 0 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 84 63 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 84 63 84 63 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 82 58 81 58 / 0 0 0 0
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