Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 260650 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 250 AM EDT TUE APR 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...THE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN OUT EVEN MORE...AND A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN DOING POORLY IN HANDLING SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...OVERFORECASTING BOTH AND THUS OVERESTIMATING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. LOOKS LIKE THIS IS THE CASE AGAIN TODAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED DEW POINTS DOWN AS WELL AS POPS. WILL CARRY LOW POPS FAR NORTH CLOSER TO THE APPROACHING FRONT. FOR TONIGHT WILL CARRY CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GIVEN THE APPROACHING FRONT. MAV TEMPS MOSTLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS. .LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE APPROACH OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EARLY IN THE THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME DEFINITE DIFFERENCES IN DETAILS. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE AIR MASS DOES DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT CAPE AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS MODEST. DO EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT WITH LOCALLY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. BRIEF RIDGING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY. WILL THEN RETURN TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES AND SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH... PROVIDING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA EACH PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 85 61 84 64 / 10 10 30 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 83 61 80 62 / 10 10 40 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 61 81 62 / 10 10 40 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 56 79 60 / 10 30 50 60
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/MJB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.