Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240646 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 246 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Precip in our area has shown a diminishing trend overnight, and this is expected to continue through the morning as the stronger lift with the upper jet streak shifts east and low level moisture advection stays mainly on the east side of the mountains. A downslope flow in the northern half of the area should also help keep QPF amounts relatively modest today, which will help improve the ongoing flooding situation (or at least not make it much worse). With the threat of flash flooding ending, the Flash Flood Watch will be canceled. The closed low over northern AL will drift SE across GA today and be located near the SC coast tonight. Moisture wrapping around the low will maintain overcast cloud cover for most of the area today. Forecast soundings show deep saturation remains into this evening at TRI, but the aforementioned downslope flow and lack of synoptic QG forcing should produce just scattered coverage of light showers this afternoon and evening. A few breaks in the clouds may develop near CHA late today, and may help temps get into the upper 60s. .LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)... With the low pressure system off to our east and the skies clearing out, we will finally start to dry out from this weekends rainfall. With the ridge building in and the sun shinning we will quickly warm up the first half of the work week, with highs expected to be in the 80`s for most people by Wednesday. Warm and dry conditions will continue for several days before our next system brings a bit of a cool down and another chance for showers and thunderstorms. After the initial front moves through on Thursday night/Friday morning the models start to diverge. The GFS shows that the area remains mostly dry through the rest of the 7-day forecast with ridging building leading to warmer temperatures and clearer skies. The ECMWF wants to stretch the front out over us and have it linger over the area for a while. This would lead to continuous shower/thunderstorm chances into the weekend before drying out. Will keep low end precipitation chances in the forecast until better model consistency begins to take shape. Another frontal system will be knocking on our doorstep at the very end of this forecast, which should bring another round of widespread showers and thunderstorms to the area early next week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 68 54 78 58 / 20 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 54 75 56 / 30 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 67 53 77 56 / 20 10 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 63 52 73 53 / 70 30 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM

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