Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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170 FXUS64 KMRX 171517 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 1117 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2015 .DISCUSSION...
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WIDESPREAD LIGHT SHOWERS ARE DISSIPATING AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG AND LOWER RAIN CHANCES TO CHANCE EXCEPT MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN BORDERS. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION IS HOLDING TEMPERATURES DOWN AS WELL. HOWEVER PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED NEXT FEW HOURS AS SKIES ARE CLEARING SOMEWHAT OVER MIDDLE TN. SHORT RANGE MODELS STILL BRING MORE SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE HRR DEVELOPING AN AREA OVER MIDDLE TN BY AFTERNOON AND MOVING THIS AREA INTO THE PLATEAU BY AROUND 21Z. GOING AGAINST THESE MODELS AND LOWERING POPS TO AROUND 50 PERCENT. DID NOT CHANGE HIGHS EITHER WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 80 BEFORE CLOUDS REFORM. INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE MODERATE AT BEST WITH CAPE VALUES ABOUT 500 J/KG POSSIBLY A LITTLE HIGHER PLATEAU. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LATE AS THUNDERSTORMS MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST BUT THIS WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. UPDATE SENT.
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TD

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