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Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMRX 161849
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
249 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...
NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING
PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING IN NE TN/SW VA...MOUNTAINS...AND SW NC AREAS FOR A
FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY AND PLATEAU WILL BE CLOSE TO
FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN IN A FROST ADVISORY.

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/PA TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING EAST
TONIGHT AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW. A RIDGE AXIS WILL
EXTEND SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WILL GIVE A MORE SOUTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT IN THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD MEAN WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LEANED ON
THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE LACK OF WARMING WE HAVE
SEEN SO FAR TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/JET...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE IMPACT.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS OF CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS FIRST
SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.
MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 TO 30. A RIDGE
DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND OF THE SYSTEMS
WILL MOVE IN AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE
STRONGER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             35  66  46  69 /   0   0  10  30
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  34  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       33  66  42  68 /   0   0   0  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              29  64  36  66 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY.

TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY
     MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON-
     NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-
     SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-
     UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/
     THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-
     EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON-
     MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST
     COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION-
     WEST POLK.

VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE.

&&

$$

DGS/MJB

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