Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 161849 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 249 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)... NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE ADVISORY/WARNING PRODUCTS THIS AFTERNOON. IT STILL LOOKS LIKE TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BELOW FREEZING IN NE TN/SW VA...MOUNTAINS...AND SW NC AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS. THE REST OF THE TN VALLEY AND PLATEAU WILL BE CLOSE TO FREEZING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD...AND WILL REMAIN IN A FROST ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER OH/PA TODAY WILL BE SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT AND OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST BY TOMORROW. A RIDGE AXIS WILL EXTEND SW ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...WHICH WILL GIVE A MORE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT IN THE TN VALLEY. THIS SHOULD MEAN WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE AREA...REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 60S. LEANED ON THE COOL SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE BASED ON THE LACK OF WARMING WE HAVE SEEN SO FAR TODAY. THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS BUILDING IN THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/JET...BUT IT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE IMPACT. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THERE ARE TWO SYSTEMS OF CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED. THIS FIRST SYSTEM WILL BRING A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW LITTLE MOISTURE AND MINIMAL LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 20 TO 30. A RIDGE DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FOR THE WEEKEND. THE SECOND OF THE SYSTEMS WILL MOVE IN AROUND MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER WITH DEEPER MOISTURE AND WEAK INSTABILITY FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF CONVECTION. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 35 66 46 69 / 0 0 10 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 34 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 33 66 42 68 / 0 0 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 29 64 36 66 / 0 0 0 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JOHNSON- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-WASHINGTON TN. FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EDT /3 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT /8 AM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE- EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-JEFFERSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-UNION- WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ DGS/MJB

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