Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 250858 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 358 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN CHANGES MADE WERE TO INCREASE POPS FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS NE ALONG THE SC-NC COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW TRACKS NE AWAY FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS RATHER QUICKLY WEDNESDAY. MODELS ALL QUITE CONSISTENT WITH A SWATH OF PRECIPITATION WRAPPING WESTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION...AND LIKELY FALLING IN THE FORM OF SNOW FOR THE SMOKIES...NRN MTNS OF E TN AND MOST OF SW VA. THE BEST PERIOD OF POTENTIAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LOOKS TO BE FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 15Z WEDNESDAY...THEN THE DEPTH OF MOISTURE SHRINKS RAPIDLY AND THERE IS NO REAL FORM OF LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ADDED SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE MENTIONED AREAS IN LINE WITH GUIDANCE AND ADJACENT NWS GRIDS...GENERALLY AROUND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TOTALS. PLAN TO HIGHLIGHT THIS IN OUR HWO PRODUCT AND ALSO A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT. OTHERWISE...JUST HIGH CLOUDINESS TODAY WHICH COULD BE DENSE ENOUGH TO AFFECT MAX TEMPS...ALTHO I DID NUDGE HIGHS UP TO AT LEAST NEAR THE COOLER NAM MOS MAXES. MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT AND CLOSE TO GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT COOLER WHERE SOME SNOW MAY OCCUR. .LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A SECONDARY SHOT OF COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THANKSGIVING MORNING. THIS WILL GENERATE SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. GIVEN THE PREVAILING WNW FLOW...THIS WILL NOT BE A TRUE UPSLOPE EVENT...BUT RATHER A SYNOPTIC LIFT EVENT FROM THE PASSING UPPER- TROUGH. MOISTURE MAY BE THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR MOST OF THE REGION /PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY/. STILL...A GOOD WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION FROM 06Z TO 18Z THURSDAY MAY RESULT IN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR TWO ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND PERHAPS INTO SOME LOWER ELEVATIONS OF FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY THANKSGIVING NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BEGINS TO BUILD IN ON BLACK FRIDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY DRY AND MILD FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS PEAKING IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A VERY BROAD TROUGH MAY SEND A WEAK FRONT IN OUR DIRECTION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT ONLY ISOLATED TO PERHAPS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED AS THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 57 37 52 35 / 10 40 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 55 36 48 33 / 0 60 20 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 53 36 49 33 / 0 40 20 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 35 44 29 / 0 80 70 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/AMP

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.