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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 071953
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
253 PM EST FRI MAR 7 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SOME CLOUDS HANGING IN THE
TERRAIN ALONG THE TN-NC LINE AND ALSO A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING OVER NRN PLATEAU AND SW VA COUNTIES. THINK SKIES WILL
BECOME GENERALLY CLEAR THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT...AS RAINFALL ACROSS THE
VALLEY COUNTIES WAS NOT MUCH MORE THAN A TRACE TO 0.05 INCH...SO NO
FOG. FAVORED THE SLIGHTLY COOLER MINS WHERE MINOR DIFFS WERE NOTED
IN MOS.

REALLY AN EXCELLENT SATURDAY SHAPING UP WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE
COUPLED WITH SW-W SURFACE WINDS. SHOULD SEE MAX TEMPS GET WELL INTO
THE 60S (MAYBE LOW 70S) LOWER ELEVATIONS...AND 50S IN THE MTNS.

THE OUTLIER NAM MODEL (PREVIOUS RUNS) HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH
OTHER MODELS ON THE STRENGTH OF A MINOR SHORTWAVE AND WEAK COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. PREVIOUS GRIDS LOOKED VERY REASONABLE
WITH NO MORE THAN 20 TO 30 PERCENT POPS. I DID OPT TO DROP THE POPS
IN NEARLY ALL AREAS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR MOS MINS/MAXES
FOLLOWED AS THE NICE WEATHER CONTINUES!


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE ATMOSPHERE IS PROGGED
TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR THE ABOUT THE FIRST TWO AND A HALF DAYS
OF THE FORECAST WITH SOME SUNSHINE AND WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO ENJOY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR A CHANGE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE NEXT
MAJOR STORM SYSTEM. THE MODELS INDICATE INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE SPLIT STREAM SYSTEMS WITH A WAVE BUILDING EAST ALONG THE GULF
COAST LATER TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT WITH TRAILING SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DRIVING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE NATION ON
WEDNESDAY. WAS ABLE TO EXTEND HIGHER CONFIDENCE ON THIS PERIOD OF
THE FORECAST WITH MODELS STAYING CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
SCENARIO. THEREFORE...RAISED POPS FOR SHOWERS TO LIKELY FROM LATE
NIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. DEFINITELY HAVE TO HANG ONTO
MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR MORE SHOWERS LATER IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IS LIFTED IN THE
PRESENCE OF THE HEALTHY TRAILING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. CHILLY
NORTHWEST FLOW WITHIN THIS FEATURE CONTINUES INTO THURSDAY AND THIS
WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MORE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
NEVER ENDING WINTER SEASON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             40  70  44  64  43 /   0   0  20  20   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  38  66  44  62  42 /   0   0  30  20   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       38  66  44  61  41 /   0   0  30  20   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              33  62  41  58  35 /   0   0  30  20   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG