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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 102132
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 PM EDT MON MAR 10 2014

.DISCUSSION...

-- Changed Discussion --
MANY APOLOGIES FOR THE DELAY IN GETTING PRODUCTS OUT THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT UNFORTUNATELY NUMEROUS GFE AND AWIPS ISSUES
RESULTED IN A LOSS OF ALL DATA WHICH REQUIRED A COMPLETE REDO OF
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST PACKAGE FROM SCRATCH. IN ANY
EVENT...BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS EAST TENNESSEE AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S. AN EVEN WARMER DAY IS ON TAP
FOR TUESDAY WITH MUCH OF THE CWA REACHING THE 70S...WITH UPPER 70S
POSSIBLE AROUND CHA.

12Z GFS/ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON AN INTENSE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING
ALONG THE LOWER OHIO RIVER THEN MOVING QUICKLY ENE ACROSS KY TUESDAY
NIGHT WHILE DEEPENING TO SUB-990MB. AHEAD OF THE LOW...STRONG
MOISTURE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK
INSTABILITY WITH K INDEX VALUES IN THE 30S SO WILL CONTINUE MENTION
OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. INTENSE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE CWA LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS
RAPIDLY DROPPING THROUGH THE DAY. MAJORITY OF PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT
BY AFTERNOON...BUT OROGRAPHIC UPLIFT EXPECTED TO BRING LIGHT SNOW TO
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND EAST TENNESSEE
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ADDED LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMS AROUND A HALF AN INCH ABOVE 3000 FEET FOR THIS
TIMEFRAME...ALTHOUGH AN INCH IS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.
VERY SHARP PRESSURE GRADIENT IN WAKE OF FRONT ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING
QUITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH GFS INDICATING
GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS.

DRY BUT COLDER WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WITH LOWS WELL BELOW
FREEZING IN THE TEENS AND 20S AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S/40S FOR MOST
AREAS. WARMING TREND EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND RETURN FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BEGINS.
GFS/ECMWF DIFFER GREATLY IN PRECIP CHANCES AND TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH ACTIVE WEST TO NW JET STREAM ALOFT...SO WILL MAINTAIN
LOW POPS FOR NOW WITH TEMPS NEAR MEX GUIDANCE NUMBERS.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             44  76  57  58  28 /   0   0  90  80  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  44  74  55  56  24 /   0   0  90  80  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       43  74  55  56  24 /   0   0  90  80  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              40  71  49  60  19 /   0   0  70  90  50
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

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