Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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483 FXUS64 KMRX 192010 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 310 PM EST Sun Feb 19 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...Things looking much better for this forecast period as high pressure is building into the area. Clouds will continue to decrease tonight and allow for mostly clear skies. Clear skies, calm winds, and lingering low-level moisture will allow for fog to develop once again. The NAM is very aggressive with fog while other models are not. For now will go with areas of fog across the whole CWA but patchy dense fog is certainly possible. Will keep a close eye on fog development overnight and adjust as necessary. Lows tonight will be mild again with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s, around 8 to 10 degrees above normal. Tomorrow we will be centered under a ridge of high pressure. Mostly sunny skies with high temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s can be expected. While no record highs are in danger of being broken, high temps will be around 15 to 18 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)... Monday night will be dry with clouds increasing on Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Forecast models still have some discrepancies with regards to this front, but they all show it weakening as it approaches the area Tuesday night. There should still be enough moisture present to produce some showers Tuesday night, but no significant rainfall is expected. Increased moisture remains in place over the forecast area for the remainder of the workweek. Some scattered showers are possible Wednesday, and models indicate another weak disturbance moving through on Thursday, but models aren`t resolving it great and there are many differences between each forecast, so have broadbrushed slight chance to chance PoPs to account for this. There does appear to be enough instability Thursday include a slight chance of thunder, but confidence is low. A low pressure system will strengthen over the Midwest and drag another cold front through the area Friday/Friday night. Warm, moist air ahead of this front will help increase instability and the front should provide enough forcing to potentially trigger some thunderstorms with this system. The front pushes east of the area Saturday, and another high pressure system brings a return to clear skies for the Second half of the weekend. It will be unseasonably warm with highs 10-20 degrees above normal through Friday. Slightly more seasonable air will filter into the area for next weekend behind the frontal passage, with highs dropping back down into the 50s and 60s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 43 72 51 72 / 0 0 0 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 71 48 70 / 0 0 0 20 Oak Ridge, TN 40 71 48 70 / 0 0 0 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 38 70 44 68 / 0 0 0 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR/EMH

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