Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200810 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 310 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)...It will remain very warm for the short term period. Enough clouds may linger over southern areas to keep temps below record levels, but record high temps in central/northern areas where more sunshine is expected look to be in jeopardy. Will mention near record highs in these areas in ZFP. Some weak isentropic lift will increase clouds tonight, and a few patches of light rain are expected to move into mainly southern areas overnight. Will carry chance to slight chance PoPs mainly southern half and TN mountains. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)...The longwave pattern will continue to be dominated by troughing over the western U.S. and ridging over the southeastern coast. This will keep our area under a persistently warm and humid regime overall. There are some indications that the upper ridge may cause the midweek frontal boundary to struggle a bit in having a substantive impact on the area. The NAM is suggestive that the frontal boundary and associated precip field will remain to our NW Wed and Wed night, so I have tapered back a little bit on the POPS in light of that input. Total QPFs for the period from 12Z Wed to 12Z Fri is maxing out at around 1 inch over the northern Plateau, which isn`t much to get excited about. Since the boundary will be sloshing around near the area, POPS will be maintained through the week, but GFS/ECMWF still agree that the 500MB pattern becomes more zonal for the weekend, shoving the boundary through the area with potentially heavier rainfall amounts within a narrower window of time. Thanks to warm and humid air mass, tstms will be in the forecast for Wed/Thurs and the weekend time periods.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 62 78 61 / 10 30 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 61 76 60 / 10 20 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 77 61 76 59 / 10 20 50 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 76 55 76 56 / 0 10 40 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/GC

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