Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 261845 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 245 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...
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ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT...WEAK INSTABILITY...30 TO 40 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH COMBINE TO CREATE A BAND OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...POSSIBLY SEVERE...DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET AS THE ONGOING CONVECTION PUSHES THE REST OF THE WAY THROUGH THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AND INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL DIURNAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BUT LACK OF A LOW LEVEL JET WILL DECREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...AFTER SUCH A PROLONGED DRY PATTERN FOR MAY...THE MONTH WILL CERTAINLY END ON A WET NOTE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY...ENDING WITH A COLD FRONT SAGGING SE TOWARD OR INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. HARD TO PICK AND CHOOSE WHEN NOT TO CARRY RAIN CHANCES FOR AN ENTIRE 24 HOURS WAS CHALLENGING...BUT MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DOES APPEAR TO BE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. I STILL FAVOR MINIMUM COVERAGE/LOWEST RAIN CHANCES FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGING. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SUPPORT A DRIER PERIOD THEN...UNTIL THE DEEPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND COLD FRONT APPROACH BY EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE...THE CLOUDINESS AND HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS...WHILE MINS STAY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE END OF MAY. SUPERBLEND OF MOS TEMPS LOOKED GOOD FOR FRIDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY NIGHT.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 67 82 66 83 / 70 60 50 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 66 82 64 84 / 80 60 30 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 82 65 85 / 70 50 30 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 64 80 62 84 / 80 50 30 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/TG

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