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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 260834
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
334 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING
IN FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST THINGS ARE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF. DRY AIR AROUND
500MB IS QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO SNOW
SHUTTING OFF REAL QUICK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT
AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OVER
THE AREA AND THE FINGER OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE
WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA, BUT THINK IT IS MOVING TO SLOW
FOR IT TO MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT EVAPORATES. WILL GO AHEAD AND
EXPIRE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST.
AND WILL HAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EXPIRE AT 12Z. BUT WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE DRIVERS A HEADS UP THAT, EVEN THOUGH
THERE ARE NO WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CURRENTLY ACTIVE, TRAVEL
CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY POOR.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND SOME OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUES CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES
LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, BUT IF ANY
SNOWFALL OCCURS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY
1 INCH OR LESS ACROSS THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE
ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. END
RESULT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY BY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...GIVEN SURFACE RIDGING...SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKY...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL
MOVE EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS
ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...RAIN WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC AND JET
DYNAMICS FROM NORTHERN STREAM JET.

AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EXITS FROM SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH BY
TUESDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG
JET DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
MID-WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  24  36  24 /  10  10  10  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  37  23  32  20 /  20  10  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  21  33  19 /  20  10  10  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              36  21  29  16 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON-
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER-
     HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT-
     NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST
     GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST
     GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN.

VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RUSSELL-
     SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-WISE.

&&

$$