Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160752 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 252 AM EST Thu Feb 16 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
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Prevailing northwesterly flow on the back side of the Eastern U.S. long wave trough should bring mostly dry air and sunshine to the area today. A few mid deck variety clouds will stream southeast across Southwest Virginia and Northeast Tennessee during the first half of the day but there still should be a fair amount of sunshine in this region; especially during the afternoon. High pressure will be edging farther east through the southeastern states in an effort to replace the departing upper trough. Temperatures should be near mid February norms through the period. .LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...Friday will be dry and warmer as a ridge builds over the area. Full sun highs should be reached, in the lower to mid 60s. Clouds will start to increase on Friday night ahead of a closed low tracking east across OK/AR. The position of the southern stream jet and high theta-e air at 850 mb near the Gulf Coast will likely produce deep convection in that area, preventing northward transport of deep moisture. Thus, precip in our area will be light on Saturday and Saturday night as the low moves across TN. The closed low transitions to an open wave, and will be east of the mountains Sunday morning. A highly amplified ridge will be over the region for Sunday PM through Tuesday, providing mostly clear skies and above normal temperatures. Temperatures will peak in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Tuesday. The ridge gives way on Wednesday as a closed low tracks slowly along the TX/LA coastline. Isentropic lift ahead of this system may bring light precip into the area starting Tuesday night. Like the previous system, the southern position of this low may result in Gulf Coast convection limiting the depth of moisture that is advected northward.
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&& .POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 36 66 42 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 52 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 34 65 42 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 46 31 63 34 / 0 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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