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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 130659
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)...
The large large mid-to-upper level ridge centered over MS will
remain nearly stationary through the short term, which will
provide a dry northerly flow at and above 700 mb. In the low
levels, the surface to 850 mb ridge located east of the mountains
will provide a southerly flow of moisture off the Atlantic into
GA, with some moisture creeping up into the southern TN Valley
today. Already, satellite shows low clouds spreading into N GA. An
isolated shower may be possible in SW NC and the mountains today
where winds can flow upslope. Otherwise the moisture should only
be realized in the form of cloud cover where lift is lacking. Mild
temps in the lower 80s will continue today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)...
We star the weekend with the ridge of high pressure continuing to
dominate the weather pattern. Daytime high temperatures through
the should remain about 10 degrees above normal with mostly sunny
skies, light winds, and no chances for rain, but things begin to
take a turn towards the end of the weekend.. A low pressure system
north of the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the
eastern half of the United States bringing with it chances for
rain and cooler temperatures. Models are begging to narrow down
the time frame for the frontal passage in our area with the most
likely time being Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Front
will push through relatively quickly and precipitation will be
tied closely with the actual front so our rain chances stay around
for only about 24 hours. Forecast model soundings are in some
disagreement with how much instability will be present along this
front, but it looks like most places will just see rain with maybe
an occasional rumble of thunder.

The front will be totally east of the area by Monday afternoon and
pretty dry air will set in behind it. In addition temperatures will
make a dramatic drop with temperatures on Monday forecasted to be
about 15 degrees colder than on Sunday. Ridging builds in behind the
front and traps the drier and cooler air leading to temperatures at
or just a bit below normal through the end of this 7-day forecast.

$$
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             82  64  83  64 /  10   0  10   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  61  81  63 /   0   0  10   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       81  63  81  63 /   0   0  10  10
Tri Cities Airport, TN              81  57  80  57 /  10   0  10   0
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM