Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260834 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 334 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SNOW SHOWERS ARE STILL ONGOING IN FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THINGS ARE QUICKLY TAPERING OFF. DRY AIR AROUND 500MB IS QUICKLY MOVING IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM LEADING TO SNOW SHUTTING OFF REAL QUICK FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. AT THIS POINT AM NOT REALLY EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OVER THE AREA AND THE FINGER OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MIDDLE TENNESSEE WILL MAKE A RUN TOWARDS OUR AREA, BUT THINK IT IS MOVING TO SLOW FOR IT TO MAKE IT HERE BEFORE IT EVAPORATES. WILL GO AHEAD AND EXPIRE WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES FOR AREAS IN OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST. AND WILL HAVE WARNINGS/ADVISORIES IN NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA EXPIRE AT 12Z. BUT WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO GIVE DRIVERS A HEADS UP THAT, EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE NO WARNINGS/ADVISORIES CURRENTLY ACTIVE, TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL STILL BE VERY POOR. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA AND SOME OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL LEAD TO A CONTINUES CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. CHANCES LINGER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF FRIDAY, BUT IF ANY SNOWFALL OCCURS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND GENERALLY 1 INCH OR LESS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. END RESULT DRY AND MILDER CONDITIONS IS ON THE WAY BY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...GIVEN SURFACE RIDGING...SNOW COVER AND CLEARING SKY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD FRIDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES LATE IN THE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...SURFACE RIDGING WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. AS ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS...RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT FROM ISENTROPIC AND JET DYNAMICS FROM NORTHERN STREAM JET. AS SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE EXITS FROM SOUTHWEST UPPER TROUGH BY TUESDAY...SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. STRONG JET DYNAMICS AND ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN ACROSS KENTUCKY/TENNESSEE VALLEYS FOR LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR MID-WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 41 24 36 24 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 37 23 32 20 / 20 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 37 21 33 19 / 20 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 36 21 29 16 / 40 20 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANDERSON- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-GRAINGER- HAMBLEN-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-NW BLOUNT- NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN. VA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR LEE-WISE. && $$

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