Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 130659 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 259 AM EDT Fri Oct 13 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and Tonight)... The large large mid-to-upper level ridge centered over MS will remain nearly stationary through the short term, which will provide a dry northerly flow at and above 700 mb. In the low levels, the surface to 850 mb ridge located east of the mountains will provide a southerly flow of moisture off the Atlantic into GA, with some moisture creeping up into the southern TN Valley today. Already, satellite shows low clouds spreading into N GA. An isolated shower may be possible in SW NC and the mountains today where winds can flow upslope. Otherwise the moisture should only be realized in the form of cloud cover where lift is lacking. Mild temps in the lower 80s will continue today. .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)... We star the weekend with the ridge of high pressure continuing to dominate the weather pattern. Daytime high temperatures through the should remain about 10 degrees above normal with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and no chances for rain, but things begin to take a turn towards the end of the weekend.. A low pressure system north of the Great Lakes will drag a cold front across the eastern half of the United States bringing with it chances for rain and cooler temperatures. Models are begging to narrow down the time frame for the frontal passage in our area with the most likely time being Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. Front will push through relatively quickly and precipitation will be tied closely with the actual front so our rain chances stay around for only about 24 hours. Forecast model soundings are in some disagreement with how much instability will be present along this front, but it looks like most places will just see rain with maybe an occasional rumble of thunder. The front will be totally east of the area by Monday afternoon and pretty dry air will set in behind it. In addition temperatures will make a dramatic drop with temperatures on Monday forecasted to be about 15 degrees colder than on Sunday. Ridging builds in behind the front and traps the drier and cooler air leading to temperatures at or just a bit below normal through the end of this 7-day forecast. $$
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 82 64 83 64 / 10 0 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 81 61 81 63 / 0 0 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 81 63 81 63 / 0 0 10 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 81 57 80 57 / 10 0 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/ABM

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