Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250708 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 308 AM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...Dry westerly flow aloft with PWs less than 1 inch through the period. Satellite shows a good deal of high and some mid-level clouds moving across the Tennessee Valley. These clouds will produce partly sunny conditions this morning, but model soundings shows the higher level moisture moving out this afternoon/evening. Surface ridging will also be the main feature with low dewpoints advecting into the region allowing temperatures to drop into the 50s Sunday night. .LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday night)...An upper level trough will move across the Ohio Valley...keeping NW flow over the area through the middle of the work week. Sunny skies and cooler than normal temperatures will be present Monday through Tuesday. A weak boundary will approach the area on Tuesday. Models are showing plenty of dry air throughout the sounding...but there is weak divergence aloft provided by the jet streak in the upper levels. With the lack of moisture...confidence is low on seeing anything other than very light scattered showers...if any...Tuesday afternoon. Wednesday looks dry as high pressure develops and begins to move eastward. By Wednesday evening...low and mid level flow has transitioned to out of the SW...bringing moisture and warm air advection to the area. By Thursday afternoon...diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible...mainly in areas south of I40 where the best moisture and warm air advection will be located. Friday...the entire area will have a chance for diurnal showers and thunderstorms. Wind profile is weak...so any threats in the storms would include damaging wind and large hail. But for now...no severe weather is expected. A front approaches the area for the end of the work week...so have left in scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of the front Saturday through Saturday night. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 84 60 83 59 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 82 58 80 57 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 82 57 80 56 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 53 77 53 / 0 0 10 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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