543
FXUS64 KMRX 072349
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
749 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM and LONG TERM...
(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms will be isolated again today in the Tennessee
Valley. Starting tomorrow, showers and storms will be more scattered
as a trough in the Midwest slowly moves closer.

2. Higher afternoon/evening rain chances will continue through at
least Friday. Lower chances seem possible for the weekend with a
ridge possibly building in.

Discussion:

Overall, shower and storm activity will be fairly isolated again
today in the Tennessee Valley. Better chances of more scattered
activity in the Cumberland Plateau, Southwest Virginia and Northeast
Tennessee this afternoon/evening where the Cu field is already
looking more robust. Tomorrow afternoon/evening, shower and storm
activity will be more scattered even in the Tennessee Valley as a
trough lingering over the Midwest slowly drifts closer to our
region. By Wed/Thurs, deep layer moisture advection will be present
with a surface high over the Atlantic bringing southerly flow at the
surface and a trough aloft bringing southerly flow aloft. Pwat
values will be high peaking around 2 inches by Thursday. Therefore,
showers and storms will be scattered to numerous Wed through Fri
mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. With many areas starting
to dry out and storm level motion around 15 knots expected later
this week, widespread flooding is not expected but localized
flooding will be possible. Instability will be higher by Wed/Thurs
timeframe with CAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg possible so a few
strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out near max heating.

There is hope for a ridge possibly building in this weekend. So we
may be getting lower rain chances for that timeframe. Highs will be
mostly in the lower 90s for the Tennessee Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM...

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 742 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Convection has become more isolated in nature this evening and
activity will continue to trend to little to none overnight.
Additional isolated to weakly scattered showers and storms are
expected tomorrow afternoon. Overall, conditions will
predominately remain VFR outside any convective activity but
overall potential is low so only vicinity showers have been
included this far out.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             73  94  72  93 /  10  50  20  70
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  73  93  72  91 /  10  50  20  70
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  92  70  91 /  10  50  20  70
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  89  69  88 /  20  50  30  70

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...McD
LONG TERM....McD
AVIATION...KRS