Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 280733 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 330 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)...
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A BROAD AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH S GA THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN ILL DEFINED SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OH VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY NIGHT. A SW-NE MID LEVEL JET SEGMENT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY WILL BRING AN INCREASE OF MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT. BEST LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL BE TONIGHT AND MONDAY. AS DISCUSSED IN EXCESSIVE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION...MODELS CONTINUE TO BE HAVING TROUBLE WITH CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK WITH ACTIVITY VCNTY GLFMEX. RECENT MODEL POPS AND QPF HAVE BEEN OVERDONE...ESPECIALLY THIS FAR NORTHWEST. LOWERED FORECAST QPF SIGNIFICANTLY AND BACKED OFF ON POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WHILE MODIFIED BY CLOUDS DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY ALLOWING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. MAIN SYSTEM OF CONCERN IS A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE IN LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FOR A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 64 80 61 / 20 70 50 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 64 78 59 / 20 70 50 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 62 78 59 / 20 50 50 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 59 74 56 / 10 70 70 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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