Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300704 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 304 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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RELATIVELY WARM LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE. UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SOME INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FOR SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...SO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THERE...OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT. ANOTHER NIGHT OF RECORD/NEAR RECORD LOWS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY MORNING FOR TRI-CITY AND KNOXVILLE. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BUT DIFFER SOME ON THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND RESULTING PRECIP OVER THE FORECAST AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY WITHIN THE LONG WAVE UPPER PATTERN. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL INCREASE THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...RESULTING IN A GOOD COVERAGE OF CONVECTION EACH DAY. THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY SUNDAY...AND THEN LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO POSSIBLE EACH DAY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE MOUNTAINS. AS FOR TEMPS... WILL TREND COOLER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEANS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 84 62 84 64 / 0 10 10 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 59 83 62 / 0 10 0 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 58 83 62 / 0 10 0 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 79 52 82 59 / 10 10 0 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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