Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 261907 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 307 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...PREFRONTAL CONVECTION REMAINS RATHER SPARSE AT MID AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD SEE COVERAGE INCREASE AS THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT APPROACHES. 18Z SURFACE MAP SHOWS THE COLD FRONT BETWEEN NASHVILLE AND SPARTA TN NE TO JUST WEST OF LONDON KY. LATEST HRR MODEL RUN CONTINUES TO INDICATE A MORE SOLID AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS EVENING...THUS DID NOT CHANGE MY POP AND WEATHER GRIDS MUCH FROM THE EARLIER UPDATE TODAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ON FRIDAY SUPPORT THE PREVIOUS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS. STAYED BELOW EVEN THE COLDER MOS MAXES FOR FRIDAY...BUT NOT SURE HOW MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION OCCURS IN THE COLDER/FAVORED AREAS UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. I ADJUSTED POPS UP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND KEPT SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND 1 INCH...LIMITED TO MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SW VA AND MTN AREAS. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING. ISSUED A FREEZE WATCH FOR OUR FREEZE PROGRAM AREA AFTER COORDINATION WITH ADJACENT NWS OFFICES...IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT THROUGH 11 AM EDT SATURDAY. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...CHILLY BUT DRY START TO THE LONG TERM AS OFFENDING DEEP EASTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH DEPARTS FOLLOWED BY SHORT WAVE RIDGING ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...WEAKER SHORT WAVELENGTH TROUGH SWINGS EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS SPREADING RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY BUILDS THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH MODELS OFFERING DIFFERING SOLUTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BUT GOING WITH A WEAK WAVE PASSAGE ABOUT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. APPLYING THE CONSALL BLENDED APPROACH...ENDED THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHER PROBABILITIES AHEAD OF A MORE WELL DEVELOPED SYSTEM WITH A SYNOPTIC COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUILDING INTO THE EASTERN U.S. ONCE AGAIN...A RATHER COLD BEGINNING WITH ANOTHER WIDESPREAD FREEZE POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY A MOST PLEASANT GRADUAL WARMING TREND WHICH TAKES A WHILE BUT ENDS UP WITH MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 43 52 31 48 / 80 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 42 50 27 45 / 80 20 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 40 48 26 43 / 80 20 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 41 47 25 39 / 90 30 20 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-EAST POLK- GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-KNOX- LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER- NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SOUTHEAST MONROE- SULLIVAN-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR LEE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON. && $$ TG

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