Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMRX 211848
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
248 PM EDT SUN AUG 21 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight and Monday/...
A cold front continues to march across the eastern Tennessee
Valley this afternoon...stretching from the highlands of SW
Virginia back into southern Middle Tennessee. Any associated
showers and isolated thunderstorms tied to the frontal passage
should shove east into NC over the next couple of hours...and will
taper off by 21z or so. A cooler and drier air mass will filter
into the region in wake of the front. Clearing will begin to occur
over the course of the evening...with most areas becoming mostly
clear late tonight. The combination of the clear sky...light winds
and moist boundary layer will result in patchy fog development
across the entire region through the morning rush hour commute.
Cooler air will also filter in late tonight. This...along with the
clearing sky (which will allow for good radiation cooling) will
result in low temperatures bottoming out in the mid 50s to lower
60s! These temperatures will be between 10-15 cooler than what the
region has seen in several weeks. A cool northeast flow tomorrow
will help to keep high temperatures in check in the low to mid 80s
in most locations...despite the abundant sunshine.
.LONG TERM /Monday Night through Sunday/...
High pressure will be the dominant feature through at least
Wednesday. Temperatures will be near to a degree or two below
normal...with clear skies and light winds. Wednesday...enough
instabiltiy will be present in the afternoon for scattered showers
and thunderstorms...though nothing strong or severe expected at
this time. Very little movement would be present so isolated gusty
winds and heavy rainfall would be the main threat. By Thursday...an
trough moving east through the Ohio Valley will swing a boundary
through the area. Convection in the coastal states looks to block
much of the moisture and energy that could make its way to the
area...so not looking at much in the way of shower or thunderstorm
development. Friday through Sunday...the high pressure centers over
the area. Warming temperatures are expected each day...with enough
instabilities for diurnal showers and thunderstorms each afternoon.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 87 64 90 / 20 10 0 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 63 85 62 88 / 10 10 0 0
Oak Ridge, TN 63 85 61 88 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 58 82 56 85 / 10 10 0 0