Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 181454 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 954 AM EST Sat Feb 18 2017 .DISCUSSION...Forecast mostly on track this morning but with a few minor adjustments. Tried to better pin down precip coverage with latest HRRR/RUC/NAM. Models in general agreement that better chances of precip stay west of I-75, except across the Southern Valley. Models keep the Northern Valley, Northeast TN, and Southwest Virginia relatively dry. So have decreased pop chances across these areas through the rest of the day, especially across NETN and SWVA. Also took down temperatures a few degrees across the Central and Southern Valley based on latest hourly obs and latest temp guidance. Bumped up Southwest Virginia by a degree or two due to lesser chances of rain. Will send out new zones due to precip and temp adjustments. All other elements look good at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 58 45 70 46 / 80 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 46 67 44 / 60 30 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 56 46 67 44 / 50 30 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 44 64 42 / 30 50 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR

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