Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270659 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASES TONIGHT. HIGH CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE E TN VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLIDING ALONG SOUTHERN EDGE OF SURFACE RIDGE COULD TRIGGER A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS NEAR THE GA BORDER. EXPECTED COVERAGE IS TOO LOW FOR ZONE FORECAST MENTION. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...MAIN FOCUS OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE GULF EARLY IN THE EXTENDED. MOISTURE WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY WITH A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS NUDGING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY EVENING. PRECIP WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS. RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY...SLOWLY PULLING AWAY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. GFS HINTING AT PULLING IN ANOTHER LOBE OF MOISTURE THROUGH ON TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE LOW ON THIS BUT WILL ADD SOME LOW POPS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION INTO TUESDAY. WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER...MODELS DO HOLD IN SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THE AREA DRY...BUT WILL MONITOR AND MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NEXT SYSTEM...A COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE WEST...IS PROGGED INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 65 78 65 / 10 10 60 80 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 82 62 77 62 / 10 10 30 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 82 61 78 63 / 10 10 30 70 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 81 57 76 59 / 10 10 20 80
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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