Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 160845 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 345 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
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COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BY 15Z. A FRONTO-GENETIC BAND OF SHOWERS WILL EXIT THE AREA BY 13Z. MODELS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...SHOW LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL STAY ELEVATED BETWEEN 80-150 J/KG...SO EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. FOR TONIGHT...WEAK OROGRAPHIC FLOW WILL KEEP A CHANCE POPS FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WEDNESDAY ENDING SHOWER CHANCE WITH LOW- CLOUDS DISSIPATING. SINCE EXPECT LOW-CLOUDS TO REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...WENT ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)... IN THE LONG TERM THE FIRST CHANCE FOR PRECIP INVADES THE AREA THURSDAY AS A PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE MAKES A RUN AT THE FORECAST AREA. PRECIP COULD START AS SOON AS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND IF IT DOES THERE`S A SLIGHT CHANCE IT COULD COME IN THE FORM OF SNOW FLURRIES. THINK THAT THE MOISTURE WILL BE SO LIMITED THAT VERY LITTLE RAIN/SNOW SHOULD FALL AND IF SNOW DOES FALL IT SHOULDN`T STICK TO MOST SURFACES. IT`S EVEN POSSIBLE THAT THE MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT IT ALL FALLS OUT OVER WEST/CENTRAL TENNESSEE AND THE SYSTEM DRIES UP BEFORE THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS IN PLACE OVER OUR AREA. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND AS A TROUGH/LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS MOVED THE LOW FURTHER NORTH (MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS) AND WANTS TO KEEP MOST OF THE AREA (EXCEPT FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS) AS A COLD RAIN. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SEEMS LIKE THE BEST TIME FRAME TO POTENTIALLY SEE SNOW SHOULD BE EARLY SATURDAY AS THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AT THAT TIME. AT THIS TIME FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THE VALLEY SHOW TEMPS AROUND 850MB AND LOWER SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO MELT ANY SNOW. IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD STAY COLD ENOUGH TO SEE SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. MID LEVEL MOISTURE SEEMS TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXISTS THE AREA. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE THINK THAT MOST PLACES WILL SEE LESS THAN A HALF AN INCH OF PRECIP, HOWEVER SOME AREAS COULD SEE A BIT MORE THAN THIS. WITH A RELATIVELY CLOUDY FORECAST TEMPS REMAIN A LITTLE BELOW AVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 37 49 34 / 20 0 0 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 36 46 32 / 40 10 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 36 46 32 / 30 10 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 52 35 43 29 / 50 20 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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