Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Remove Highlighting --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 201833 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 233 PM EDT SUN JUL 20 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST. CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA. WHILE NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF ORGANIZED FORCING IS EXPECTED...STILL MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AT ANY TIME. IN ADDITION...ENOUGH INSTABILITY EXPECTED DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON TO WARRANT THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS TONIGHT...CHANCE ALL ZONES MONDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO GO A BIT LOWER THAN MAV FOR MAX TEMPS MONDAY...BUT NOT MUCH ARGUMENT WITH MIN TEMPS TONIGHT. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...FAIRLY UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ANTICIPATED WITH THE MAIN FORCING BEING OROGRAPHIC LIFT. FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WILL PULL A COLD FRONT INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY WITH HIGH CHANCE/LIKELY POPS AREA-WIDE. THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS/SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA FOR FRIDAY. FOR SATURDAY BOUNDARY STALLS JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA. MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW CHANCE OF CONVECTION FOR THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS. FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...LATEST GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. PRESSURE FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH SHIFTS WINDS BACK FROM THE SOUTH PULLING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF UPPER TROUGH LOW...SO WILL ONLY CALL FOR LOW-CHANCE POPS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 87 71 88 / 20 30 20 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 86 70 88 / 20 30 20 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 87 69 89 / 20 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 63 85 65 87 / 20 30 20 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ LW/DH

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.