Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170748 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 348 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS HANGING IN OVER TRI-CITIES AREA. MODELS SHOW SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR ABOVE...SO CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE FROM THE TOP...AS WELL AS SLOWLY ADVECT AWAY TO THE EAST. SATELLITE SHOWING FOG STARTING TO FORM IN WESTERN AREAS...SUCH AS SEQUATCHIE VALLEY...A LITTLE SLOWER IN CENTRAL VALLEY...AND ALSO SOME HAS FORMED IN SOUTHWESTERN NC. RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...SO WILL INCLUDE PATCHY FOG FOR THIS MORNING. DID NOT PUT FOG IN TONIGHT...POST FRONTAL WINDS SHOULD NOT ALLOW SIGNIFICANT RADIATIONAL SETUP. HOWEVER...LOOKS LIKE MOIST UPSLOPE INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SHOULD GET CLOUDS TONIGHT. COULD GET SOME UPSLOPE FOG AS WELL...BUT WILL NOT MENTION FOG FOR TONIGHT AT THIS TIME. .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...LOW PRESSURE TROUGH ALOFT PERSISTS OVER THE NE STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SATURDAY A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH NW FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO AND EASTERN TN VALLEYS. THIS WILL ALLOW ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN NE TN AND SW VA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE IT ROTATES EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND USHER IN EVEN COLDER AIR MASS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S NORTHEAST AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...WITH 40S ELSEWHERE. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK IN SUNDAY THROUGH MID MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM DROPS SE TOWARD THE NE HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ONCE AGAIN THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF RAIN NE HALF LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCE TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM BECOMES QUITE WRAPPED UP AS IT MOVES SE TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC AND THEN FINALLY OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AGAIN WEDNESDAY AS THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 78 53 69 45 / 0 0 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 74 51 67 42 / 0 0 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 50 66 43 / 0 0 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 74 51 62 39 / 0 0 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM/TD

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