Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180706 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 306 AM EDT Sun Jun 18 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Today and tonight)...Heights will begin falling as an upper trough approaches, and a cold front will be nearing our western border by the end of the short term period. More available convective energy today as moisture starts to increase, so while will still carry highest PoPs in the terrain areas again will have chance PoPs even into valley areas. Tonight as the front approaches should see showers and thunderstorms begin to increase from west to east. Appears timing on this activity will be mainly after midnight which will help to limit instability. Low level shear will increase a bit during the period although still not overly impressive. Storms this afternoon and perhaps again late tonight may be strong to severe with damaging winds the primary threat. Also PW values expected to be quite high and localized flooding will be a concern. Will mention these threats in the HWO. .LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)...Categorical pops for convection still in the works for Monday as showers and thunderstorms continue to shift very slowly to the south and east across the forecast area. Continued decreasing probability is in store for Monday night from northwest through southeast as the cold front slips into the Western Carolinas. Higher pressure with subsidence and drier air should allow for pleasant weather on Tuesday and Wednesday across the Southern Appalachians. However, another upper trough appears to build southeast out of the Canadian prairies and into the Upper Midwest by the first half of the weekend. This configuration would lead to a gradually moistening and destabilizing atmosphere across the Southeastern United States with another cold front possibly entering the Southern Appalachian region by Sunday. Therefore, probability of precipitation for the development of showers and thunderstorms cranks up again heading into the weekend. A nice drop in temperature due to frontal clouds and rain cooled air keeps Monday pleasant followed by returning sunshine but lower humidity on Tuesday behind the front. The summer heat and humidity gradually returns through the remainder of the extended period due to a shift in the low level wind pattern to a southerly direction.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 89 72 84 67 / 30 60 80 50 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 89 69 81 65 / 30 60 80 50 Oak Ridge, TN 89 70 81 64 / 40 60 80 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 89 67 79 62 / 30 60 80 60
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