Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
-- Highlight Changed Discussion --
-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000 FXUS64 KMRX 171830 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 230 PM EDT SUN AUG 17 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
-- Changed Discussion --
CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK AND DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVER CENTRAL EAST TN...WITH AREA RADARS REVEALING AN EXTENSIVE LINE OF CONVECTION OVER THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT WAVE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT...SPREADING A FAIRLY EXTENSIVE AREA OF CONVECTION OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THESE SYSTEMS...WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS AREA WIDE THROUGH MONDAY. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD DECREASE A LITTLE ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE... BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE TN RIVER VALLEY. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT REVEAL DISCREPANCIES WITH MAXES. WILL TREND TOWARDS THE COOLER NAM MAXES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SINCE THEY HAVE BEEN VERIFYING BETTER LATELY AND HIGH DEWPOINTS COMBINED WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL U.S ON THURSDAY...AND STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THIS PLACES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW...AS A SERIES OF IMPULSES MOVES THROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP US IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN AREAS.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
-- Changed Discussion --
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 71 86 70 90 / 60 60 40 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 71 84 70 88 / 60 60 50 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 71 84 70 88 / 70 60 50 30 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 83 66 86 / 60 70 60 30
-- End Changed Discussion --
&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/MJB

USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.