Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290701 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 301 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THIS SURFACE HIGH WILL BRING DRY AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THIS UPPER TROUGH SHOULD MAINLY JUST CREATE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...WITH THE LOCAL ATMOSPHERE CAPPED IN THE MID LEVELS. AS FOR TEMPS...GFS AND NAM GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND LOOK REASONABLE. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR MOST OF THE EXTENDED. A SERIES OF UPPER JETS WILL ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE JETS WILL THE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY PULLING MOISTURE BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE MOUNTAINS. UNSEASONABLY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED TO BROKEN MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MAIN LOW-LEVEL FOCUSING WILL BE TERRAIN AND AN INVERTED TROUGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO LIFTS EAST/ NORTHEAST OF THE AREA WITH SURFACE TROUGH MOVING EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS. BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 82 58 85 63 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 81 57 81 61 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 57 82 60 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 78 53 79 53 / 10 0 0 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DMG/DH

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