Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 170809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 309 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW) CURRENTLY LIGHT SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SW VIRGINIA, WITH OVERCAST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. CHANCE FOR PRECIP IN THE SHORT TERM WILL HAVE TO WAIT TILL TOMORROW WHEN MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COUPLED WITH A WEAK RIPPLE OF ENERGY COULD GIVE A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIP TO THE AREA. THIS ROUND OF PRECIP SHOULD MOVE THROUGH PRETTY FAST AND DEPENDING ON THE TIMING COULD LEAD TO SOME LIGHT SNOW. AT THIS POINT THINK EVERYWHERE SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A QUARTER INCH OF LIQUID, SO EVEN IF IT DOES BRIEFELY FALL AS SNOW IT SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. .LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW STARTS THE EXTENDED WITH A JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY PLACING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS UNDER THE FAVORED LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE JET. SYNOPTIC LIFT COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL PRODUCE CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS FOR SATURDAY. COLD AIR IS LIMITED...SO EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY. GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A STRONG STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPING FOR CHRISTMAS EVE WITH A DEEP LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. RAIN INITIALLY WILL LIKELY CHANGE TO SNOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA. WAY TOO EARLY FOR AMOUNTS...BUT WATCH SYSTEM CLOSELY SINCE FAIRLY COLD AIR WILL BE DRAWN SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 49 33 49 33 / 0 30 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 31 46 31 / 0 20 30 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 31 45 30 / 0 20 40 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 28 44 28 / 0 0 30 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/DH

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