Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271857 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 257 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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ANOTHER WARM AND MUGGY DAY WITH AFTERNOON SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS UPON US. COVERAGE HAS BEEN DECENT EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, BUT AGAIN, HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE EXTENT OF THE CONVECTION WE ARE CURRENTLY SEEING. SO HAVE GENERALLY CONTINUED WITH POP CHANCES THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. CAPE LOOKS DECENT, SIMILAR TO WHAT WE SAW YESTERDAY, BUT AGAIN THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO SHEAR TO KEEP STORMS ORGANIZED. SO AM AGAIN EXPECTING TYPICAL POPCORN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT WE COULD SEE FOG, BUT I THINK IT WILL BE CONFINED TO LOW LYING AREAS AND PLACES THAT GET SHOWERS OVER THEM THIS AFTERNOON. A SIMILAR STORY IS SHAPING UP FOR TOMORROW WITH REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THERE WILL BE A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER TEXAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME LINGERING SCATTERED-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DISSIPATING EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...ANY WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY SHOULD KICK OFF MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PERHAPS WITH MORE COVERAGE THAN TUESDAY/S STORMS. LOOK FOR INCREASING SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE INTO THURSDAY AS WELL. THE BIGGER STORY MAY BE THE HEAT INDICES FOR WEDNESDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS HINTING AT SLIGHTLY HIGHER HEAT INDEX VALUES THURSDAY WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK HEATING WHEN THE SOUTHERN TN VALLEY COULD SEE TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT INDEX VALUES. THESE HEAT INDICES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA /105 DEGREES OR GREATER/. AFTER THURSDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE TO THE WEST AND LEAVE THE EASTERN U.S. IN A BROAD TROUGH AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...MORE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION BRINGING RAIN- FREE CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 75 95 74 93 / 20 30 20 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 72 91 73 89 / 20 30 20 30 OAK RIDGE, TN 73 91 73 90 / 20 30 20 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 68 87 69 86 / 30 40 30 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ ABM/AC

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