Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 201924 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 324 PM EDT FRI MAY 20 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday night)...
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Upper level trough and shortwave will continue through the area through the evening. Scattered showers over Nashville`s area will follow the track of low level winds around the low...moving east on to the plateau...and then northeast through the valley and mountains. There is still enough instability for a rumble of thunder or two...so left in forecast...though chance for thunderstorm is isolated and limited to the southern plateau and valley. Rainfall rates so far have been less than half an inch...as these showers have had more dry air to move through. The showers moving east have been lingering in that SW 850 mb flow and will bring a higher rainfall rate with a couple of inches of rain over several hours. PW values still above average...so will continue to highlight the potential flooding threat with any slow moving and stronger showers. Tonight...rain is expected to weaken and move east of the appalachians as the low pressure continues across SW VA. Fog development is possible...though only expecting patchy fog as winds will remain a few knots with the cloud cover. Skies will remain overcast through Saturday. Light scattered showers could move through the valley late morning and afternoon as another brief wave of energy moves around the low. Not expecting much accumulation from these showers at this time. Saturday evening...wrap around moisture will bring another chance for scattered showers mainly in NE TN and SW VA. There is a decent amount of instability for a rumble of thunder or two. Low level winds will also be gusty...especially in the higher elevations. These showers are expected to last through the early morning hours Sunday morning...moving east with the low pressure. Temperatures today through Saturday will be a degree or two below normal. Saturday night...NW flow will set up behind the low pressure...lowering overnight temperatures several degrees below normal in to the upper 40`s to mid 50`s. .LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE EXTENDED WILL WITNESS THE PASSING OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE INTO THE ATLANTIC, AN INCREASE IN SURFACE HUMIDITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, AND THUS THE PRESENCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS /WED THROUGH FRI/.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 60 77 56 79 / 70 20 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 60 74 55 75 / 90 30 20 0 Oak Ridge, TN 60 74 56 76 / 90 30 20 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 57 70 52 71 / 90 60 40 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JW/GC

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