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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 091920
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
320 PM EDT SUN MAR 9 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...CLOUDS FINALLY CLEARED
OUT BEHIND THE WEAK COLD FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDING LIGHT
WINDS SO I WENT CLOSER TO THE COOLER GFS MINS.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...CONTINUED DRY WEATHER WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. UPPER RIDGE FOR MONDAY WILL FLATTEN TO A ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY. SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES AND THE SW SURFACE
GRADIENT SHOULD TIGHTEN A BIT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT. THE DRY AIRMASS AND W-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
FAVORED NUDGING MAX TEMPS UP IN LINE WITH THE WARMER GFS MAXES.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...SHOWERS AND EVEN THE
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER IS IN THE WORKS FOR THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A STRONG STORM SYSTEM BUILDS EAST
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST FROM
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF
LIFT AND INSTABILITY WOULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW WITH MORE ENERGY DIVING THROUGH THE BACK
SIDE OF THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CONTINUATION OF
RAIN SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AS NORTHWEST FLOW
CRANKS UP IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC LOW
AND APPROACHING MID CONTINENT RIDGE. THE GOOD NEWS IS DRIER WEATHER
AND A MODEST WARMING TREND FILL IN BEHIND THE WET MID WEEK SYSTEM
KEEPING IMPROVED WEATHER IN PLACE THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. MODELS
NOT ALL ON THE SAME PAGE WITH A LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM SO CONFIDENCE
LOW AT THIS POINT BUT ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             41  71  45  75  54 /   0   0   0  10  70
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  39  67  45  71  52 /   0   0   0   0  70
OAK RIDGE, TN                       37  67  44  71  53 /   0   0   0   0  70
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              32  64  39  69  46 /   0   0   0   0  50

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG