-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
235
FXUS64 KMRX 021043
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
643 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Morning clouds and fog expected. Clearing conditions expected
today and subsidence and drier air arrives.

2. Dry across the region with a low chance of showers or isolated
thunderstorms in the vicinity of the mountains and southwest North
Carolina.

Discussion:

The longwave trough axis is located across the region this
morning and it should move east of the area by 15z. Most
precipitation is already to our east ahead of the shortwave. Low
clouds and some areas of fog are expected this morning, but this
will be short lived. Subsidence will result in clearing sky
conditions and dry weather by mid-day through the afternoon. A few
isolated showers or storms are possible in the vicinity of the
mountains and across our far southeastern counties (mainly in
southwest North Carolina) near the frontal boundary, but overall,
we expect to remain dry area-wide today.

Clear conditions are expected tonight with northwest flow aloft
and surface high pressure.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Wednesday)
Issued at 1256 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Key Messages:

1. Thursday and Friday (Independence Day) are forecast to be
absolutely beautiful with clear sky conditions and no
precipitation.

2. Isolated mountain thunderstorm chances increase this weekend,
but the overall chance of precipitation remains very low (less
than 20 percent).

3. Increasing temperatures and humidity this weekend with heat
index values near 100F across the southern valley near
Chattanooga.

4. Between the influence of an upper-level shortwave to our north
and a tropical low pressure system to our southeast, rain chances
are highly uncertain early next week.

Discussion:

High pressure and northwest flow aloft will result in mostly
clear, and absolutely beautiful conditions on Thursday and
Friday. Independence Day looks to be dry and very nice for
outdoor plans; however, heat will begin to return with max
temperatures around 90F and heat index values approaching 100F.
Just practice heat safety if spending a lot of time outdoors on
Friday by staying hydrated and taking frequent breaks in the
shade.

The upper-level ridge shifts over our area this weekend with
surface high pressure moving to our east. This will bring a return
of weak southerly flow and increasing moisture and humidity.
Isolated afternoon thunderstorm chances will begin to increase,
mainly across the mountains.

By early next week, we will be in between two synoptic systems:
troughing across the Great Lakes and upper Mississippi Valley and
a tropical low pressure system near Florida. There is still quite
a lot of uncertainty with the placement of these systems and how
it will impact our weather, but the most likely outcome at this
time is increasing chances of diurnal afternoon thunderstorms each
day across our forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...
-- Changed Discussion --
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 642 AM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VCFG near TYS and TRI will continue to produce some potential
brief impacts at terminals, but VFR conditions quickly prevails
area-wide after 14z as clearing commences. Northerly winds remain
light today.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             90  69  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  88  67  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       88  66  90  68 /   0   0   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              85  63  86  63 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...JB