Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 172022
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
322 PM EST Sat Feb 17 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight and Sunday)...
So far rain amounts in the Flood Watch area have been in the range
of a third of an inch to three-quarters of an inch, based off radar
estimates and obs. Continuing rain in this area through the
afternoon is expected to nearly double those amounts, so the Flood
Watch will continue. The strongest lift associated with a
midlevel frontogenesis zone will be over our eastern border
counties around 00Z, with rain expected to end for all locations
around midnight as rapid drying aloft moves in. Low levels remain
saturated, so cloud cover will likely hang on until late tomorrow
morning. During the afternoon, 850 mb winds shift around to SW
again, and the resulting warm advection with mostly sunny skies
will bring temps into the lower to mid 60s in the Valley.

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Friday)...
Another weak impulse to move up and over nearly stationary front to
the south of the region Sunday night into Monday. Around one quarter
inch to add to our high rain totals of the last several days. A
milder night as clouds and more light rain moves in. Lows in the 40s
to lower 50s. Monday rain mainly in the morning with only a slight
chance in the afternoon and highs much above normal in the mid 60s
to near 70 as warm ridging beneath a southwest flow aloft sets up
over the eastern Tennessee Valley. Should be some clearing during
the afternoon Monday. There will be a brief break in the
precipitation Monday night through Tuesday with the exception of
light showers southwest North Carolina where there will be upslope
flow. Near record highs possible Tuesday in the 70s and also near
record high minimums Tuesday night near 60. An approaching cold
front Wednesday will bring spring like showers and a chance of
storms. This frontal system will meet the strong ridging over the
southeast and slow. ECMWF keeps it to the west with GFS bringing the
front through by Thursday night but then having it move back north
as a warm front Friday before a second system approaches Saturday.
After Wednesday confidence is low about when front will push through
and with southwest flow continuing chance of showers each day.
Rainfall amounts will vary by location but with front to the north
and west the northern plateau and southwest Virginia will likely see
the highest amounts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             39  65  53  69 /  60  20  50  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  36  62  49  68 /  70  10  60  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       36  62  48  67 /  50  10  60  40
Tri Cities Airport, TN              33  61  42  68 /  80  10  60  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for Campbell-Claiborne-
     Hancock-Scott TN.

VA...Flood Watch until 10 PM EST this evening for Lee-Russell-Scott-
     Wise.

&&

$$

DGS/TD



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