Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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696
FXUS64 KMRX 041930
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
230 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...
A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS PRESENT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE
NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOWS OVERNIGHT EXPECTED TO GET
DOWN INTO THE 20`S. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT WHICH COULD BRING IN SOME CLOUDS TO NORTHEAST TENNESSEE AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA, BUT NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS
TROUGH. TOMORROW WILL BE ANOTHER NEAR NORMAL DAY WITH TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED TO ONLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY ARE TODAY.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD SUNDAY
WITHOUT HAVING TO MENTION PRECIPITATION. SUNDAY NIGHT DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WITH MAJOR AMPLIFICATION
OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL TAKE UP
RESIDENCE OVER THE EASTERN STATES AS SEVERAL SHORTER WAVELENGTH
SYSTEMS ROTATE THROUGH THE BASE OF THE PARENT LOW`S CIRCULATION.
THIS SCENARIO BRINGS ARCTIC AIR INTO THE REGION BEGINNING LATER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT WITH EACH FEATURE ALONG WITH SOME
NICE STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...SNOW IS BACK IN THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE IN THE VALLEY AND ACCUMULATION LIKELY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN
REGION DRIES OUT BASICALLY ABOUT WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK INTO THE 40S AFTER A
COUPLE DAYS OF MAXES IN THE 20S AND 30S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             28  49  28  52 /   0   0   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  25  45  28  49 /   0   0   0  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       26  46  28  50 /   0   0   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              24  42  24  47 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

ABM/TH



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