Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 251915
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
315 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND TUESDAY/...
A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OVER THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL PROMOTE A CLEARING SKY WITH
THE DRIER AIR THAT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE HOLD. LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY PRESENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN VALLEYS WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO DISSIPATE...ALONG WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE PLATEAU. AS A RESULT OF THE MOSTLY
CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT...AND THE DRIER AIR IN PLACE...
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER TONIGHT AND BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG AREA
LAKES/RIVERS...SO HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE FORECAST
AFTER 06Z. ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WILL BRING HIGHER TEMPERATURES ON
TUESDAY...IN THE 85 TO 90 DEGREE RANGE BY THE AFTERNOON. A STRONG
CAP ALOFT WILL ALSO PREVENT ANY CONVECTION FROM FIRING...SO HAVE A
KEPT A DRY FORECAST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ESTABLISHED
OVER THE AREA AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS ALSO BUILT INTO THE
AREA...MAKING FOR QUIET WEATHER. LOOKS LIKE THIS PATTERN IS SLOW TO
CHANGE...BUT FINALLY LATE IN THE WEEK...AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES
TO THE EAST...MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF SURGES NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FRONT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP LOOK TO ROUGHLY BE SATURDAY
NIGHT...SUNDAY...AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. TIMING IS A LITTLE
IFFY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD...BUT
WHEN THE MOIST AXIS WILL BE OVER THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LIFT IS
NOT WELL-AGREED UPON. NOT LOOKING LIKE SEVERE STORMS AS THE
DYNAMICS IS VERY WEAK WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR QPF IN THESE
PERIODS...HELD OFF ON THURSDAY FOR ANY QPF...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOT
IN THE AREA YET...AND MOST ENSEMBLE MEMBERS KEPT THE AREA DRY.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE HEATING UP PRETTY WELL UNDER THE
RIDGE THIS WEEK...THEN COOLING DOWN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND DUE TO
CLOUDS AND WETTER CONDITIONS.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             65  90  65  93 /   0   0  10   0
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  63  87  62  91 /   0   0  10   0
OAK RIDGE, TN                       64  88  61  92 /   0   0  10   0
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              56  85  53  88 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AMP/GM



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