Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 280730
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
330 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...QUITE A MUGGY EARLY MORNING
WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S SO FAR. THAT WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURE LOOKS TO BE TO OUR NORTH...ALTHOUGH APPEARS THAT A
WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY HAVE SETTLED ACROSS THE NRN PLATEAU AND
CENTRAL VALLEY COUNTIES. SOME PERSISTENT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LINGERED OVERNIGHT IN THESE AREAS.

NOT SURE IF ANY OF THE MODELS HAVE THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS PEGGED FOR LATER TODAY...BUT THE PREVIOUS POP GRIDS LOOKED
REASONABLE. NUDGED POPS UP ACROSS THE BOARD FOR THE PRE 12Z GRIDS
AND OPTED FOR AREAL COVERAGE BY THE AFTERNOON. 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...THEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
ALL BUT FAR WRN COUNTIES.

FOR TEMPS...07Z TEMPS SO MILD THAT I WAS HESITANT TO UNDERCUT THE
GFS MOS MAXES BY VERY MUCH. PROBABLY SEE MAXES TODAY VERY CLOSE TO
THOSE ON MONDAY. CHOSE CLOSE TO THE MOS BLEND FOR MINS TONIGHT...
EXCEPT ABOUT 1 TO 3 DEGREES COOLER IN A FEW SPOTS SUCH AS MURPHY
NC.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...NOT TOO MUCH GOING ON IN THE
LONG TERM. RIDGE STARTS TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT ON WEDNESDAY AND
WILL THUS ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. FLATTENING OF RIDGE IS IN RESPONSE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THAT
SWINGS A WEAK FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA ON THURSDAY...GIVING US OUR
BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH WEAK FRONT
MOVING THROUGH POPS ARE ONLY HIGH END CHANCE DUE TO LIMITED MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA. AS WITH THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...SOMETHING TO
WATCH FOR ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE HEAT INDICES DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HEAT INDEX VALUES LOOK TO BE IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S CENTRAL VALLEY AND UPPER 9OS NEAR 100 ON BOTH WEDNESDAY.
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THESE VALUES ARE BELOW THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
OF 105 OR GREATER BUT DO REMEMBER TO STAY HYDRATED WHILE DOING ANY
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

DRIER AIR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN BEHIND THE FRONT
ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD DUE TO EASTERN
U.S. BEING IN A BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH PATTERN. THIS DRIER AIR WILL
KEEP US MOSTLY DRY WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN
EACH DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             95  74  93  75 /  30  20  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  73  90  73 /  30  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       91  73  91  74 /  30  20  40  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              87  69  87  70 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

TG/SR



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