Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMRX 281859
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
259 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)...Upper low will be dropping
into the area during the short term. A cold front will swing
through tonight ushering in some cooler air. Looks like some
showers may hold together long enough to make it into our area
especially northern plateau and SW VA later tonight. Better chance
for showers looks to be tomorrow afternoon with upper low moving
in...especially northern areas. Will carry likely PoPs northeast.
Instability looks limited but may be enough for a few rumbles
northeast...so will include slight chance of thunderstorms there.
.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...Closed Mid/Upper
Low over Ky to continue mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies across
the northern two thirds of the forecast area Thursday night into
Friday before it drifts back north to northwest into the Ohio
Valley. Best chance for showers will be Thursday evening across
southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Instability by evening
looks too low to include thunder. On Friday models begin to move
upper low back north. Have trimmed back area of slight chance pops
across northern sections but not too confident in any coverage. Low
temperatures will stay cool friday but be tempered by cloud cover.
Friday temperatures a few degrees warmer south but continued cool
north. Partly cloudy skies south and mostly cloudy north closer to
upper low. Friday night and Saturday still some variable clouds north
with upper low still hanging around Ohio Valley and Great Lakes.
Highs will warm several degrees north reaching the 70s everywhere
except the higher mountains. From Sunday through Wednesday a gradual
warming trend as weak high pressure stays in control. The upper low
finally shifts to the east coast by Monday or Tuesday. Highs will
rebound to above normal for the period Monday through Wednesday.
some models bring tropical system now in Caribbean to the southeast
coast by mid week.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 72 52 73 / 10 20 10 10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 70 50 70 / 20 30 20 20
Oak Ridge, TN 54 71 51 71 / 20 30 20 20
Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 70 51 70 / 20 60 40 20