Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271918 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 318 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND THURSDAY)...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TO LAST AT LEAST OVERNIGHT AND QUITE POSSIBLY FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH AS A MINOR SHORTWAVE PASSES EAST ACROSS THE NE STATES THIS EVENING. DON`T REALLY SEE ANY THREAT OF PRECIPITATION AT ALL WITH THIS FEATURE OVERNIGHT. BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TOO DRY FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF FOG...ALTHO I DID CARRY BRIEF 4SM AND FOG AT TRI TAF. MOISTURE SHOULD BE LIMITED...BUT PROBABLY JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND MTNS BY MID TO LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THUS...I CONTINUED THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT POPS AS IN PREVIOUS GRIDS FOR THOSE AREAS...GOING AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS AT TYS AND CHA. FOR TEMPS...THE MOS BLEND LOOKED BEST FOR MIN TEMPS...WHILE I STAYED CLOSER TO THE SLIGHTLY LOWER NAM MOS FOR MAX TEMPS THURSDAY. NOTING THAT I HAD TO LOWER 18Z TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO TODAY FROM FORECAST GRID VALUES. .LONG TERM.../THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD THE WESTERN EDGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. BY FRIDAY THE RIDGE IS GETTING SHOVED TO THE EAST AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE WEST. HOWEVER...BY SATURDAY THE RIDGE HOLDS FIRM ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AND DEFLECTS/WEAKENS MUCH OF THE TROUGH AS IT TRIES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. STILL THE UPPER TROUGH INTRUDES ENOUGH TO GET US IN THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF WESTERLY FLOW AND ALLOW SOME SHORTWAVES TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SITUATION WILL KEEP THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THOSE DAYS FAIRLY UNSETTLED. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD A COLD FRONT SHOULD BE SAGGING SOUTHWARD FROM THE NORTH AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY. FOR TEMPERATURES...STARTING WHEN THE MOISTURE GETS DEEPER THIS WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...WENT 1-2 DEGREES COOLER ON THE MAX TEMPS...FOR DEEP MOISTURE AND PERIODS OF LIFT...THESE TEMPERATURES SEEMED TOO WARM.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 93 67 94 / 10 10 10 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 91 67 92 / 10 10 10 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 66 92 66 93 / 10 10 10 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 59 89 61 91 / 10 10 10 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/GM

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