Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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790 FXUS64 KMRX 281859 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 259 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Tomorrow)...Upper low will be dropping into the area during the short term. A cold front will swing through tonight ushering in some cooler air. Looks like some showers may hold together long enough to make it into our area especially northern plateau and SW VA later tonight. Better chance for showers looks to be tomorrow afternoon with upper low moving in...especially northern areas. Will carry likely PoPs northeast. Instability looks limited but may be enough for a few rumbles northeast...so will include slight chance of thunderstorms there. .LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)...Closed Mid/Upper Low over Ky to continue mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies across the northern two thirds of the forecast area Thursday night into Friday before it drifts back north to northwest into the Ohio Valley. Best chance for showers will be Thursday evening across southwest Virginia and northeast Tennessee. Instability by evening looks too low to include thunder. On Friday models begin to move upper low back north. Have trimmed back area of slight chance pops across northern sections but not too confident in any coverage. Low temperatures will stay cool friday but be tempered by cloud cover. Friday temperatures a few degrees warmer south but continued cool north. Partly cloudy skies south and mostly cloudy north closer to upper low. Friday night and Saturday still some variable clouds north with upper low still hanging around Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Highs will warm several degrees north reaching the 70s everywhere except the higher mountains. From Sunday through Wednesday a gradual warming trend as weak high pressure stays in control. The upper low finally shifts to the east coast by Monday or Tuesday. Highs will rebound to above normal for the period Monday through Wednesday. some models bring tropical system now in Caribbean to the southeast coast by mid week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 72 52 73 / 10 20 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 56 70 50 70 / 20 30 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 54 71 51 71 / 20 30 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 54 70 51 70 / 20 60 40 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/TD

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