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261
FXUS64 KMRX 080742
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
342 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Messages:

1. A regional severe weather outbreak is increasingly likely from
late this afternoon through tonight across the Mississippi River
Valley and Tennessee Valley.The threats include widespread damaging
winds, very large hail, and tornadoes (including EF-2+ strength).
The tornado threat is highest along and west of Interstate 75.

2. Scattered to possibly numerous instances of flooding are likely,
especially west of Interstate 75. This threat will be most amplified
from this evening to Thursday morning.

Today and Tonight

Currently early this morning, a 120+ kt 250mb jet extends into the
western Great Lakes with a southern jet of near 100 kts extending
from the southern Mississippi Valley. A very broad warm sector is
also in place with a cold front near the Mississippi River and a
warm front near the Great Lakes. Also, strong to severe convection
is ongoing across the Ohio River Valley and will continue to
progress southward through the morning hours. By daybreak, the
aforementioned northern jet will progress towards the eastern Great
Lakes with the left-exit region of the southern jet being placed
directly over Tennessee and westward. This will create a strongly
divergent pattern aloft. The timing of when this initial convection
arrives is still somewhat uncertain, but a later timing (early
afternoon) would allow for more destabilization beforehand and could
slightly limit instability for the evening/overnight period. In any
case, deep-layer shear by the early afternoon will reach near or
above 40 kts with MLCAPE in excess of 2,000 J/kg. During this time,
the flow pattern will still be fairly light and still somewhat uni-
directional, but the thermodynamics and overall profiles are still
sufficient for storm organization and a damaging wind and hail
threat.

By the late afternoon through tonight, the wind profile will
strengthen and become increasingly more veered with opportunity for
additional destabilization beyond 2,500 J/kg of MLCAPE, especially
if there is some break in earlier activity. During this timeframe,
effective shear is expected to reach or exceed 50 kts with very
right-turning hodographs. The CAMs still differ some on the timing
and evolution of convection, but most solutions suggest widespread
organized supercells by the late afternoon along and north of
Interstate 40 with one or more line segments arriving through the
evening hours. While the low-level shear isn`t too strong,
impressive low-level instability and veering wind direction yield
pretty high confidence in STP values to exceed 2 or 3, especially
along and west of Interstate 75. In the mid-levels, lapse rates of
around 7 Celsius/km or greater can be expected with very impressive
CAPE in the -10 to -30 Celsius region of 800 to 1,000 J/kg. While
the CAMs differ on exact timing and storm mode, widespread storms
are indicated anytime from the afternoon through the overnight
hours, initially focused north and then shifting south. The latest
HREF data suggest a broad swath of updraft helicity tracks across
much of the area and focused especially along and west of Interstate
75. In any case, it should be noted that this system has already
produced numerous tornadoes, including some strong to violent,
across the Great Plains to places along and north of the Ohio River
Valley. This event will also almost certainly continue to the
overnight hours, presenting a nocturnal severe weather threat.

Another important aspect of this event is duration, intensity, and
coverage of convection. Places further south may not see as much
coverage during the day, but this will likely occur more from the
evening to early Thurday morning. The CAMs are indicating high
probabilities for over 3" of rainfall with notable probabilities (20
to 30 percent) for 5" or more of rainfall. Just as with the tornado
threat, this is elevated even more further west. Based on the strong
signals and likelihood of significant rainfall, a Flood Watch was
issued for the entire area. The threat is certainly not uniform area-
wide, but the signals suggest rainfall and antecedent conditions
sufficient for scattered to maybe even numerous instances of
flooding.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
-- Changed Discussion --
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 341 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Key Message:

1. Cooler weather late week and into the weekend behind the cold
front.

2. Lingering showers possible Friday with shortwaves within the
northwest upper flow. Quick shortwave may bring some showers and
thunderstorms Saturday (highest chance northern areas).

3. Drier weather expected Sunday and Monday with a gradual warming
trend. Chance of showers increases again mid-week.

Discussion.

Behind the cold front on Thursday, cooler and drier air will arrive
across the region within the northwest upper flow. Troughing and
cooler air aloft will result in some diurnal convection on Friday
afternoon with limited potential for thunder.

A stronger shortwave is expected to move through the upper level
northwest flow on Saturday with scattered showers and thunderstorms
possible on Saturday afternoon, with the highest chance for
precipitation across our northern counties through southwest
Virginia.

Ridging begins to build on Sunday and Monday with drier weather and
a gradual warming trend into early next week. Chance of rain begin
to return on Tuesday and Wednesday as a system is expected to
develop across the Lower Mississippi Valley, but certainty in timing
and location is low.
-- End Changed Discussion --
&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 AM EDT Wed May 8 2024

Overall, fairly quiet aviation conditions are expected through the
remainder of the night and into the early morning hours. The main
impact beyond the early morning through Wednesday night will be
multiple rounds of thunderstorms, many of which could likely
become severe from the afternoon onward. There is still some
uncertainty as to when these storms will be in the area at the
terminals with a potential break in activity during the early to
mid afternoon. It is also likely that CHA will see the least
activity during the day with an uptick by later in the evening.
Within any storms, a rapid reduction in conditions are expected,
not to mention that all severe hazards are on the table.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             88  68  85  61 /  70  80  80  30
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  81  67  80  58 /  70  80  80  30
Oak Ridge, TN                       80  66  82  57 /  80  80  80  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              77  63  77  56 /  90  80  90  30
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday
     morning for Cherokee-Clay.

TN...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon through
     Thursday morning for Anderson-Bledsoe-Blount Smoky
     Mountains-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-Cocke Smoky Mountains-
     East Polk-Grainger-Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-
     Jefferson-Johnson-Knox-Loudon-Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-
     North Sevier-Northwest Blount-Northwest Carter-Northwest
     Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN-
     Sequatchie-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-
     Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Sullivan-Unicoi-Union-
     Washington TN-West Polk.

VA...Flood Watch from 2 PM EDT this afternoon through Thursday
     morning for Lee-Russell-Scott VA-Washington VA-Wise.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BW
LONG TERM....JB
AVIATION...BW