Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 290748 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 348 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)... Rain soaked areas mainly N of I-40 are reporting patchy areas of fog with visby as low as 2 miles. Expect this to dissipate rather quickly after sunrise. Meanwhile, convection west of the area continues to track east along the TN-KY border region. High resolution models seem to have finally initialized with this activity and slowly weaken/dissipate it this morning over our northwestern counties. For the remainder of today and tonight, broad upper level trough and deep moist airmass will continue to produce afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms area wide. With marginal shear of around 15 kt coupled with MLCAPE of 1500 J/kg there remains the prospect of an isolated marginally severe storm. Similarly, deep moisture could produce some locally heavy downpours resulting in some localized flash flooding. With much of the area not expected to clear out until early afternoon, cloud cover may be an inhibiting factor for any significant convection. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)... An unsettled weather pattern will continue through Monday, but temperatures will be closer to normal for late July and early August. A broad upper trough will remain overhead with several short waves moving through, bringing a chance of thunderstorms each day. An upper level ridge will build back into the central US next week, bringing a return of the above normal temperatures. While daily thunderstorm chances will be more tempered, a few weak disturbances will crest the ridge and move through our area on the eastern periphery. There will be enough instability and moisture present to produce scattered thunderstorm chances as these disturbances move through. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 88 73 90 73 / 50 40 50 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 87 72 88 71 / 50 30 40 30 Oak Ridge, TN 87 72 89 70 / 50 30 50 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 68 85 67 / 50 40 40 40 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ EJH/EMH

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