Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 071916 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 316 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL TRY AND KEEP A COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...LATEST MODELS DO SHOW THE COLD FRONT SAGGING JUST FAR ENOUGH SOUTH THAT AREAS NORTH OF I-40 MAY SEE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TONIGHT WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEING CLOSER TO THE KY/TN STATE LINE AND SWVA. TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND AGAIN. TOMORROW...THE FRONT IS ABLE TO DRIFT A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH AS IT SUPPRESSES THE RIDGE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR LOW/MOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON. AGAIN...BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE NORTH OF I-40...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLATEAU...NETN...AND SWVA. INCREASED CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE DUE TO FRONTAL LOCATION. MORE CLOUDS NORTH THAN SOUTH SO THE NORTH WILL LIKELY SEE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS COMPARED TO TODAY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS NEEDED TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN ATLANTIC RIDGE RETROGRADING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND BECOMING POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY THE WEEKEND. THE NAM SHOWS A STRONGER RIDGE THAT KEEPS PRECIP TO OUR NORTH VS. THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE THAT BRINGS PRECIP TO THE ENTIRE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BOTH DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRENDING UPWARD AS THE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...A MORE NW FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO DROP INTO SW VA AND NE TN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE GFS SHOWS MORE QPF FOR US IN THIS PATTERN...BUT IT LOOKS OVERDONE GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZED LIFT...AND WILL LEAN TOWARD THE DRIER ECMWF. WILL HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS NORTHEAST EACH DAY. A MORE WELL DEFINED TROUGH APPROACHES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WHICH SHOULD BRING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/DGS

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