Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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560 FXUS64 KMRX 220750 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 350 AM EDT Sat Oct 22 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...As a cold front pulls away from the area...surface high pressure will build in. This will allow for clearing skies with cooler air continuing to filter in. Highs across the valley today will range for the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. Winds have decreased across the region but should see locally breezy to gusty winds into the afternoon. Tonight...the cooler air continues to move in and lows will fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s. Areas of frost are expected to develop and a frost advisory will be issued for southwest VA...extreme northeast TN and along the east TN mountains from the Great Smoky Mountains northward. The advisory area may be expanded if confidence in the potential for widespread frost increases along the borderline areas. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...Sunday higher pressure will settle over the Southeast with winds becoming light and shifting to the southwest. This will allow highs to rise 10 to 15 degrees. Sunday night with a more southerly flow temperatures will be several degrees warmer in the 40s to lower 50s so frost will not be an issue. Also a weak system moving southeast along the edge of upper level high centered over the gulf coast will spread some clouds and a weak front through the forecast area early Monday and reinforce a cooler and drier air mass for the eastern Tennessee Valley. Ahead of the front highs will reach the mid to upper 60s northeast to 70s central and southeast Tennessee. Monday night and early Tuesday the lows in the northeast will drop into the upper 30s with patchy frost possible. Highs Tuesday and Wednesday will be in the 70s. Wednesday a more significant system will develop over the central Plains and upper Mississippi Valley. This system will move into the Great Lakes states Thursday with a low pressure system continuing to deepen as it tracks into Ontario. The associated cold front will move through late Thursday and Thursday night. There will be a good chance of showers and a possible thunderstorm south. Clearing skies Friday as high pressure moves back in. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 65 44 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 41 71 48 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 61 41 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 56 37 68 40 / 0 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Northwest Carter- Northwest Greene-Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter- Southeast Greene-Sullivan-Unicoi-Washington TN. VA...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for Lee-Russell- Scott-Washington-Wise. && $$ MJB/TD is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.