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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS64 KMRX 310938
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
438 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH CLOUDS MAY STREAM ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT EXPECTING A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN HIGH-MID CLOUDS FOR LATER TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
THE CLOUDS MAY THICKEN ENOUGH NY THE AFTERNOON HOURS TO SLIGHTLY
HINDER MAX TEMPS FROM REACHING THE WARMER MOS MAXES.

FOR TONIGHT...SREF/GFS/ECMWF ALL SHOW VERY LITTLE PRECIPITATION FOR
OUR AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z TO 09Z MONDAY. OPTED TO KEEP SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR JUST THE NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES INTO MOST OF SW VA
LATE TONIGHT...WITH JUST GENERIC WORDING OF RAIN OR SNOW FOR NOW.
PROBABLY NO MORE THAN TRACE AMOUNTS IF ANY AT ALL. THE LOWERING MID
DECK CLOUDS FAVOR THE MILDER MINS WHERE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES WERE
NOTED IN MOS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RIGHT AT OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING SUNDAY
MORNING AS PRECIPITATION BEGINS WITH MOSTLY RAIN SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF THE LOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE WINDS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A WIND ADVISORY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE STEADY RAIN CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING WITH FRONT
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
MONDAY. STRONG COOLING BEHIND FRONT AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY MORNING. LIKE
THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS LOWS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING BY
MORNING EXCEPT IN THE MOUNTAINS. LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY MORNING WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. MUCH COLDER AIR
MASS MONDAY WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO STAY COLD AS NW FLOW AND
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPS SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE REGION BUT
TAPERING OFF TO JUST FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM TO SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW INTO REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. MORE SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY FIRST IN THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY AND THEN LOWER ELEVATIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY LOWER ELEVATIONS AS COLDER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             52  36  52  36 /  10  10  90  90
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  46  31  50  34 /   0  10  80  90
OAK RIDGE, TN                       47  32  49  34 /  10  10  80  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              44  25  49  33 /  10  10  60  80

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

TG/TD