-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
686
FXUS64 KMRX 111802
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
202 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
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(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Key Messages:

1. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will continue until
this evening. No severe weather is anticipated, but any stronger
storms may produce wind gusts up to 40 mph as well as heavy
rainfall and isolated flooding.

2. Diurnal convection again on Saturday, but slightly higher
probabilities of an isolated severe storm or two. Damaging winds
up to 60 mph and heavy rainfall are the main concerns.


Discussion:

Diurnal showers and storms continue until this evening. The
greatest coverage should be across the high terrain of the
Cumberland Plateau, and the east TN, southwest NC, and southwest
VA mountains. Severe weather is not expected. However, any
stronger storm will be capable of producing wind gusts up to 40
mph as well as heavy rainfall. Isolated flooding is possible for
any location that receives repeated rounds. Showers and storms
will decrease in coverage this evening, though an isolated shower
or storm overnight can`t be ruled out. Any area that relieves
rainfall today or tonight will likely have fog develop overnight,
some of which may be locally dense.

Diurnal showers and storms are expected again tomorrow. However,
there are slightly higher probabilities that we see an isolated
severe storm or two. This is due to an increase in 0-6km bulk
shear. CAMs are still showing around 20kts, which is enough for
slightly more storm organization compared to summer-time pulse.
The main threats will be damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph and
heavy rainfall, which could lead to flooding.
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&&

.LONG TERM...
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(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 135 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Key Messages:

1. Zonal flow pattern through the period. The result, daily,
diurnal, summer-time convection continues.


2. Hot conditions return as an upper ridge builds back into the
region for the middle part of the work week, with heat indices in
the mid 90s to near 100F becoming more common across valley
locations.

Discussion:

A trough approaches Sunday but high pressure to our south will
likely keep this feature north. This results in zonal flow across
the forecast area. Zonal flow will continue through the end of the
period, which will be conducive for daily, diurnal, showers and
storms. Another trough approaches late in the week, but high
pressure may yet again keep this feature to our north. Overall,
any potential severe threat seems rather low but we will continue
to monitor hi-resolution models as they come into temporal scale.


Main weather message will be to focus on the return of hot
conditions with heat indices potentially climbing back into the
mid 90s to near 100F Tuesday and Wednesday.
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Mostly VFR through this evening at all sites, expect for any brief
MVFR due to the PROB30 for showers and storms. Fog forecast
overnight is low confidence. If any terminal receives rain today
then confidence in overnight fog will increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             72  93  72  95 /  10  50  10  40
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  72  91  72  93 /  10  40  20  40
Oak Ridge, TN                       71  90  70  92 /  10  50  20  50
Tri Cities Airport, TN              68  89  68  88 /  20  40  30  50
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...
AVIATION...