Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221903 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 303 PM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Saturday)...The atmosphere is slowly moistening...so expect more convection than recent days. The heat will continue...but more clouds may help to keep things from reaching heat advisory criteria despite the higher humidity. Will carry slight chance PoPs except low chance far south this evening...then low chance to slight chance PoPs for Saturday. Think MAV temps generally look reasonable for min temps tonight...so just some minor tweaks. However...will go higher than MAV temps mainly south and central areas for max temps Saturday. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...Overall, an uptick in rain chances as we move through the extended as well as more seasonable temperatures. High pressure still off to our west to begin the long term. A few scattered showers and storms may linger around to begin Saturday night but chances decrease after midnight. Mild overnight lows with temps in the upper 60s to low 70s. High begins to break down on Sunday but another hot day in store with temperatures in the low to mid 90s. Low-end chance pops in place for afternoon showers and storms. Mild again Sunday night with lows ranging from near 70 to the mid 70s. By Monday the high further weakens as a front sags southward out of the Ohio River Valley. Incoming front will allow for pops in the 40 to 60 range as moisture and lift slowly increase. The front enters into the area sometime Monday night into Tuesday morning and corresponds with the highest pop chances of the long term. Monday temps still in the low to mid 90s out ahead of the front. Tuesday we drop down in the upper 80s and near 90 due to increased clouds and showers/storms with the arrival of the front. Models then show the front stalling out across our area in an west to east fashion and will be the focus for showers and storms through the rest of the long term, with highs remaining in the upper 80s to near 90.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 95 74 95 / 30 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 93 74 94 / 20 30 20 30 Oak Ridge, TN 73 94 73 94 / 20 30 20 30 Tri Cities Airport, TN 67 93 69 92 / 20 20 20 30
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/SR

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