Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260840 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 340 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR THIS MORNING EXCEPT FOR PASSING PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS. THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH NEAR CALM WINDS WAS ALLOWING PATCHY AREAS OF FOG TO FORM... AS FREEZING FOG IN THE FEW SPOTS NOTED THROUGH 08Z. OTHERWISE... PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON TAP WITH WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE HOLD. NAM MOS MAXES LOOKED TOO COOL... SO KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS MAX TEMP GRID. FOR TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE ONLY SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD TO POSSIBLY ALLOW A LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR WRN MOST COUNTIES. GFS AND NAM DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON THE AMOUNT OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS LATE WITH BOTH INDICATING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. BLENDED THE DIFFERING MOS MINS...FAVORING THE COLDER GFS MINS WHERE SKIES STAY MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...RIDGING MOVES EAST SATURDAY WITH CLOUDS INCREASING AND RAIN SPREADING IN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT MOVING INTO MS AND TN VALLEYS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT IS FAIRLY SLOW WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING UP ALONG IT ON SUNDAY. BEST INSTABILITY STAYS SOUTH OF TN SUNDAY SO THINK THUNDER CHANCES TOO LOW TO MENTION SOUTH. STILL GOING WITH NAM/ECMWF HAVING A TRAILING LOW FROM THE SW RIDE UP ALONG THE FRONT LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CONTINUEING THROUGH MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND 50S TO NEAR 60 SUNDAY. A COOLING TREND THEN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND COLD FRONT. AS PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT MONDAY EVENING IN THE NORTHEAST THERE COULD BE A LITTLE SNOW MIXED IN BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE SIGNIFICANT. AIR MASSS DRIES OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE AND WEST TO EAST FLOW TAKES OVER TUESDAY. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY A WEAK FRONT PASSES THROUGH BRINGING IN MUCH COLDER AIR MASS AS FLOW SWITCHES TO THE NW. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 58 36 58 46 / 0 10 50 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 56 32 60 45 / 0 0 20 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 55 32 58 44 / 0 0 20 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 54 28 60 40 / 0 0 10 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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