Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 010849 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 349 AM EST SUN FEB 1 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...IN SPITE OF ECHOES ON AREA RADARS THIS MORNING...THE TEMP AND DEW POINT TEMP SPREADS REMAIN QUITE LARGE WITH NO RAIN INDICATED FROM ANY OBSERVATION. THE ONSET OF RAIN MAY BE DELAYED...BUT TIMING IN FORECAST GRIDS LOOKED CLOSE WITH JUST A SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT. EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE WIDESPREAD BY TONIGHT AND POPS WERE PUSHED UP CLOSER TO 100 PERCENT. CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOWFALL FOR LATE TONIGHT ARE MARGINAL WITH THE SURFACE LOW CENTERED TO OUR NORTH AGAIN...LIKE PREVIOUS SYSTEMS THIS WINTER. SURFACE AND 850 MB TEMPS ARE NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW UNTIL 08Z TO 12Z MONDAY...AND ALSO THE MOISTURE IS ALREADY BECOMING SHALLOW WITH BARELY -10 DEGS C AT THE TOP OF THE MOIST LAYER. OPTED TO LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE GRIDS FOR LATE TONIGHT WHERE SNOW IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE...NRN PLATEAU/WISE CO VA/ SMOKIES. INCREASED POPS ABOUT 15 TO 20 PERCENT IN EASTERN AREAS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE PRETTY MUCH ALL SNOW SHOWERS BY THEN. FOR SNOW AMOUNTS...WITH EACH SHIFT SLICING OFF A BIT OF SNOWFALL...BARELY REACHING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE BULK OF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS 3RD PERIOD...SO WILL ONLY HIGHLIGHT THE SNOW FROM THIS EVENT IN THE HWO PRODUCT FOR NOW. SENT A MESSAGE TO WEBINAR USERS THAT THE SNOWFALL IS LOOKING LESS WITH THIS WINTER SYSTEM. WILL CONTINUE THE WIND ADVISORY AS ISSUED EARLIER BY SATURDAY DAY SHIFT...WITH A SW 850 MB JET OF AROUND 45 TO 50 KNOTS INDICATED. THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO OCCUR FROM 02/00Z TO 02/09Z...BUT SOME GUSTINESS MAY LINGER THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...JUST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LATER SHIFTS CAN DETERMINE IF EXTENDING THE WIND ADVISORY IN COVERAGE AND/OR TIME IS JUSTIFIED. GFS MOS OR A SLIGHT BLEND LOOKED GOOD FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH MONDAY MAX TEMPS AROUND DAYBREAK THEN TUMBLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY. .LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...SURFACE LOW WILL BE OUT TO SEA BY MONDAY EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING AND SKIES CLEARING. HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLD TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY. AS COLD UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EAST TUESDAY AND HIGHER PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST COAST TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN INITIALLY WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT CHANGE TO SNOW THURSDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. THURSDAY EVENING THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST WITH PRECIPITATION MOSTLY SNOW BUT ENDING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING TO NEAR NORMAL. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 54 37 39 24 / 90 100 40 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 52 37 38 23 / 80 100 60 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 51 35 36 23 / 80 100 40 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 50 38 39 18 / 60 100 70 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE. VA...NONE. && $$ TG/TD

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