Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240716 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 AM EDT Fri Mar 24 2017 .SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...A ridge of high pressure along and just east of the southern Appalachians will produce another dry and warm day. Model soundings show a strong boundary layer inversion (around 850mb) over the region today. Satellite shows a broken ceiling (around 850mb) advecting north into the area due to the low-leve southerly flow around the ridge. This cloud cover will remain through most of the morning, especially central/south, then scattered during the afternoon. A good deal of cirrus/cirru-stratus is expected late today and tonight. Even though mostly cloudy/partly sunny sky is expected, warm southerly winds will allow temperatures climb in upper 60s to lower 70s most locations today. .LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...Overall...expect a rather unsettled weather pattern throughout the extended. Could see scattered convection begin to move in late Saturday afternoon in advance of an approaching cold front. However...current model timing brings the main line of convection across the area Saturday night. A 40 to 50 KT 850MB jet will accompany the front and the air mass will be weakly unstable for likely to categorical showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Convection will continue over the region into Sunday and with daytime heating the atmosphere will destabilize further. A few showers may linger into Sunday night as the system pulls way from the area. Will not see much of a break between systems with another cold front quickly moving in and bringing another round of showers and thunderstorms to the region around the Monday/Tuesday time frame. A few showers may linger into Wednesday with weak ridging to zonal flow aloft. Then...another system will be approaching the area for Thursday...will only have a light chance of pops mentions on Thursday as the main band of convection is currently expected to remain west of the area through the end of the extended period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 70 54 72 58 / 0 0 30 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 69 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80 Oak Ridge, TN 71 52 71 55 / 0 0 20 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 70 46 69 53 / 0 0 10 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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