Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 281916 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 316 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...
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MOISTURE IS STARTING TO MAKE A RETURN...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES TO THE EAST. MUCH OF THIS AFTERNOON`S CONVECTIVE CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THEN TONIGHT EXPECT STRATUS/STRATOCUMULUS TO SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN AREAS...THE FLOW WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS...AND THE DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT WILL LIKELY HAMPER DEVELOPMENT OF A GOOD ST/SC LAYER. DUE TO THIS...SOME PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. DURING THE DAY SATURDAY THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREADS FARTHER NORTH...BUT WILL KEEP THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE VALLEY DRY FOR NOW. WENT CLOSE TO GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES...PRETTY CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)... LIKELY THE WETTEST DAY OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST WILL BE ON SUNDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING MOISTURE TO MOVE IN FROM THE OCEAN. EXPECT STORMS TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER THE WEEKEND, BEFORE WE DRY OUT A BIT HEADING INTO THE WORK WEEK. NEXT IMPORTANT FACTORS IN THE FORECAST WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST, AND THE PATH THAT ERIKA TAKES ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. RIDGE FROM THE WEST LOOKS TO BE DECENTLY STRONG WHICH WILL TRY AND FORCE DRYER WEATHER IN...WHILE AT THE SAME TIME MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH ERIKA`S PATH. YESTERDAY THEY WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SHE WOULD MOVE UP THE EAST COAST AND QUICKLY BACK OUT TO THE ATLANTIC. 24 HOURS LATER, TODAY, SOME MODELS BRING HER UP THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA AND FIZZLE OUT OVER THE SOUTHEAST, U.S. WHILE OTHERS STILL KEEP HER GOING UP THE EAST COAST TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK WITH WHERE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE COULD BRING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. AT THIS TIME WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AND REFINE FORECAST AS PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 85 70 83 / 10 30 30 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 65 86 68 83 / 0 20 20 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 65 86 68 83 / 0 10 20 50 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 60 84 63 81 / 0 0 20 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM/ABM

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