Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260840 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 340 AM EST Sun Feb 26 2017 .SHORT TERM /Today and Tonight/...
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High pressure at the surface prevailing today will promote a clear sky with dry conditions. Despite the fact that there will be plenty of sunshine, a light WNW flow will keep highs in check once again (in the 50s) -- though it should feel a bit warmer than yesterday due to the lighter surface winds. Clear conditions in the evening, should allow for good radiational cooling after sunset. However, cloud cover will begin to work it`s way into the region after midnight ahead of the next upper-level disturbance that will track into the Tennessee Valley later on Monday. This cloud cover will help keep lows 5-8 degrees warmer than the previous night, preventing a freeze from occurring for a second night in a row. .LONG TERM /Tuesday through Saturday/... Upper level flow becomes more southerly for Monday into Tuesday, helping to advect warmer, more moist air into the forecast area. A warm front will push north across the forecast area Monday night into Tuesday, providing enough lift for scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and night. We`ll be firmly in the warm sector on Tuesday into Wednesday, and temperatures will again climb into the upper 60s to mid 70s. The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms will be Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong cold front sweeps through the area. We`ll continue to keep a close eye on the potential for severe weather with this frontal passage, as this event gets within the time range resolved by shorter, higher- resolution models. Rain chances taper off Thursday morning as the front exits the area and northwest flow ushers cooler air into the region. Precipitation may end as a few snow showers across the higher terrain, but no accumulation is expected. Highs for the second half of the workweek and next weekend will be near seasonal normals, generally in the 50s at most locations. A weak shortwave does cross north of the forecast area on Friday, but at this point it looks like precipitation will be mainly north of the area, and did not have enough confidence to include any showers across SW Virginia. High pressure will be overhead through the weekend, keeping the area dry with mostly sunny skies.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 40 58 52 / 10 0 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 36 58 50 / 10 0 30 50 Oak Ridge, TN 52 35 57 48 / 10 10 30 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 31 57 43 / 10 0 30 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/EMH

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