Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMRX 271857
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
257 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight and Friday/...
Rain showers are quickly tapering off and shifting east of the
mountains this afternoon. Some partial clearing is occurring ahead
of the true cold front which is still located up in southern
Kentucky. This feature will drift south into the region
overnight...bringing with it another round of low stratus
clouds...and perhaps a sprinkle or two. In it`s wake...a slightly
cooler and drier air mass will move into the Tennessee Valley for
Friday. Cloud cover will likely be around during the morning...but
will quickly dissipate by midday. A cooler NE flow may keep highs
in check by a few degrees. However...with abundant sunshine...highs
will peak in the 75 to 80 degree range in many spots once again.
.LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/...
Not seeing much change in the ongoing forecast. Dry and warm
conditions will continue to be the theme for the long-term forecast.
Unfortunately the drought conditions will continue to worsen and
expand throughout the forecast period. Record highs look to be a
possibility on Saturday with a ridge building into the area with 500
mb heights in the 586-588 dm range. Highs will range from upper 70s
to mid 80s for most valley locations.
On Sunday, the ridge will weaken slightly as an upper level trough
moves across the Great Lakes region into the Northeastern U.S. PW
values do increase to near an inch on Sunday but any substantial
lift with the system will be well to the north. The only impact
across the forecast area will be slightly cooler but still above
normal temps due to increased cloud cover.
The upper level ridge really begins to take hold early in the work
week with increasing upper level heights on Monday and Tuesday.
Forecast temperatures are only a degree or two away from record
highs. The upper level pattern looks similar to a summer time setup
but the lack of moisture or lift will keep chances for precipitation
at bay. Temperatures throughout the work week will be well above
normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows generally in
the 50s for most valley locations.
Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a trough and cold front
moving through next weekend but this is still beyond the forecast
period and still to far away to give hope to a pattern change.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 80 55 83 / 10 10 10 0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 76 54 81 / 20 10 10 10
Oak Ridge, TN 52 77 53 81 / 10 10 0 0
Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 72 47 78 / 30 0 0 0