Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 202021 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 321 PM EST Tue Feb 20 2018 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Wednesday)... Big story for today is the VERY warm temperatures across most of the forecast area. Still seeing some decent cloud coverage in SE Tennessee and SW North Carolina which is keeping away the warmest temps... But pretty much everywhere else is seeing record or near record temperatures 20+ degrees above normal for this time of year. KTYS has already seen it`s high temperature record for today broken (75 set in 1986) and may possibly hit 80 this afternoon. KTRI has also broken the high temperature record (75 set in 2014). KCHA has seen more cloud coverage so the record is safer there (78 set in 1986), where they`re currently in the lower 70`s. Part of the increase in temperatures is the stronger winds out of the south to southwest bringing in much warmer air. Overnight, the temperatures will also be very warm with LOWS expected to be near the normal daytime HIGHS for this time of year. Tomorrow will see the line of showers and thunderstorms moving towards the area from the west. We could see some showers form ahead of the main line, but coverage would be relatively sparse, until the line is able to move through in the afternoon into the overnight hours. .LONG TERM (Wednesday Night through Tuesday)...An upper ridge will remain positioned over the southeastern U.S. Wednesday night and Thursday. This will place the Southern Appalachian Region under southerly flow aloft which will continue to pull warm...moist air into the area. This pattern will also keep a frontal boundary stalled generally to our north and west...though models in poor agreement as to how significantly the boundary and its influences reach into the MRX CWA. The air mass over the area will become weakly unstable for a chance of scattered showers and possibly a stray thunderstorm. However...the northwestern part of the CWA may see the frontal boundary meander over the general area and with the added lift and focus of the front...will see a better chance of convection. By Friday...models indicate the ridge will strengthen and the frontal boundary will lift northward for a decreased chance of convection. The ridge shifts east and the front is expected to move in during the weekend. This will bring widespread showers and isolated thunderstorm chances to the area. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Models diverge by the end of the extended but do trend toward the front dropping to our south with surface high pressure building in for a rather quiet end to the expected period.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 62 78 61 75 / 30 50 40 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 76 60 74 / 20 40 40 40 Oak Ridge, TN 61 76 59 73 / 20 50 60 60 Tri Cities Airport, TN 55 76 56 73 / 10 40 40 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/MJB

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