Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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267 FXUS64 KMRX 101934 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 234 PM EST Sat Dec 10 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Sunday)...The area of surface high pressure over the region will slide off to the east during the period. Low level flow will turn more southwesterly and increase, and moisture will begin to increase as well ahead of the next frontal system. Expect an increase in mainly high clouds, although some low clouds are forecast to begin moving into southern areas by late Sunday. Winds will pick up from the south and southwest and become gusty across some of the higher elevations, but are expected to remain below advisory criteria through Sunday. Will be quite cold again tonight but temperatures on Sunday should be close to seasonal normals. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...A cold front will push through the area on Monday, bringing a good chance for rain. Higher winds will proceed this frontal passage, and windy conditions are possible across higher terrain Sunday night into Monday. From here, model consensus diverges with the ECMWF bringing an area of low pressure just southeast of the area Tuesday into Wednesday and the GFS showing a weaker area further south and east. For now, went with chance POPs centered over the southeastern corner of the CWA. Temperatures are marginal Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, and some flakes may mix in across the north. Any precipitation lingering into Wednesday night will turn over to snow showers with lows dipping into the 20s, but the bulk of the precipitation is expected to exit the area prior to this. Thursday looks to be mainly dry with some lingering light rain/snow showers possible over the mountains. The next weather system will approach the area for the weekend. With cooler air moving into the region, we could see a mix of rain and snow with this system. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 26 50 41 54 / 0 10 70 90 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 22 49 41 54 / 0 10 80 90 Oak Ridge, TN 23 49 41 51 / 0 10 90 90 Tri Cities Airport, TN 18 46 37 51 / 0 10 70 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/EMH

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