Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271857 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 257 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2016 .SHORT TERM /Tonight and Friday/... Rain showers are quickly tapering off and shifting east of the mountains this afternoon. Some partial clearing is occurring ahead of the true cold front which is still located up in southern Kentucky. This feature will drift south into the region overnight...bringing with it another round of low stratus clouds...and perhaps a sprinkle or two. In it`s wake...a slightly cooler and drier air mass will move into the Tennessee Valley for Friday. Cloud cover will likely be around during the morning...but will quickly dissipate by midday. A cooler NE flow may keep highs in check by a few degrees. However...with abundant sunshine...highs will peak in the 75 to 80 degree range in many spots once again. .LONG TERM /Friday Night through Thursday/... Not seeing much change in the ongoing forecast. Dry and warm conditions will continue to be the theme for the long-term forecast. Unfortunately the drought conditions will continue to worsen and expand throughout the forecast period. Record highs look to be a possibility on Saturday with a ridge building into the area with 500 mb heights in the 586-588 dm range. Highs will range from upper 70s to mid 80s for most valley locations. On Sunday, the ridge will weaken slightly as an upper level trough moves across the Great Lakes region into the Northeastern U.S. PW values do increase to near an inch on Sunday but any substantial lift with the system will be well to the north. The only impact across the forecast area will be slightly cooler but still above normal temps due to increased cloud cover. The upper level ridge really begins to take hold early in the work week with increasing upper level heights on Monday and Tuesday. Forecast temperatures are only a degree or two away from record highs. The upper level pattern looks similar to a summer time setup but the lack of moisture or lift will keep chances for precipitation at bay. Temperatures throughout the work week will be well above normal with highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s and lows generally in the 50s for most valley locations. Both the GFS and ECMWF indicate a trough and cold front moving through next weekend but this is still beyond the forecast period and still to far away to give hope to a pattern change. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 80 55 83 / 10 10 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 76 54 81 / 20 10 10 10 Oak Ridge, TN 52 77 53 81 / 10 10 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 72 47 78 / 30 0 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ AMP/MA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.