Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 261933 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 333 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016 .SHORT TERM (This Afternoon through Tuesday)... Cold front now moving into East Tennessee. Just out of ahead of this front, showers and storms have developed and will continue to move across our area into the evening hours. The strongest showers and storms will move through from now through the rest of the afternoon. Some of these storms may produce locally heavy downpours and brief strong gusty winds. Expecting majority of the storms to stay well below severe limits. Showers and storms will weaken by early evening and will further do so by sunset. The bulk of the precipitation should be through our area by around 8 PM. Afterwards, just light and spotty showers expected until the front pushes further east. Low- level moisture hangs in behind the front and allows for mostly cloudy skies overnight, which will help to keep our temperatures several degrees warmer than previously forecast. Lows tonight will be in the mid 50s north to lower 60s south. Clouds eventually begin to clear later tomorrow morning. Upper trough lagging behind front quite a bit so we won`t see any real push of colder and drier until tomorrow afternoon. Highs tomorrow will be several degrees cooler. Highs will range from the low-to-mid 70s north to near 80 south. .LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)... Upper low over the Northern Great Lakes Tuesday night will drop southeast over Ohio/Indiana by Wednesday night and then even further south over Kentucky/West Virgina/SW Virginia on Thursday night. Any model disagreement on strength and position of the low through Friday morning is starting to become settled. ECMWF/GFS/NAM starting to align in handling of this system with GFS being most consistent and therefore most favored of the three. With lower thickness values and increased cloud cover associated with the low...max/min temperatures should get several degrees below normal Thursday through Saturday before starting to recover Sunday and Monday. Additionally, although moisture is limited with this system, steep cold pool lapse rates... particularly over the northeastern portions of the area should help to squeeze out some showery precipitation for Thursday and Friday. By the weekend, this low begins to lift out and is recaptured by the westerlies as a broad ridge of high pressure begins to build back into the area by Monday with temperatures rebounding to normal or slightly above. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 64 81 53 80 / 40 10 10 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 78 52 77 / 50 10 10 20 Oak Ridge, TN 60 79 51 77 / 40 10 10 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 60 75 47 76 / 70 20 10 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR/EJH

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