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000
FXUS64 KMRX 111909
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
309 PM EDT TUE MAR 11 2014

.DISCUSSION...
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OUTSTANDING DAY TODAY WITH FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT SW BREEZES. THIS
COMBO HAS HELPED TEMPS INCREASE 5 TO 10 DEGREES OVER YESTERDAY/S
TEMPS...WITH AT LEAST MID 60S AREA WIDE THIS AFTERNOON PLUS SOME
70S IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

UNFORTUNATELY...BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH PRECIP...STRONG
WINDS AND MUCH COLDER AIR ALL SET TO ARRIVE WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE H5
LOW OVER THE TX/LA COAST THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
ALTHOUGH IT WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH...IT WILL PULL PLENTY OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION TONIGHT AND PROVIDE SOME WEAK
LIFT. WILL RAMP UP THE POPS TONIGHT WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF A
RELATIVELY LOW QPF EVENT. ALSO...ISOLATED ELEVATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE.

A BIGGER ISSUE IS THE IMPACT FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT IS
PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. IT SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U.S. LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT...WHICH AT 19Z WAS MOVING THROUGH OK
AND KS...RACING THROUGH OUR REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
PICK UP A BIT TONIGHT AS GRADIENTS INCREASE...THEN INCREASE
SHARPLY ALL DAY WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AND MOVES
THROUGH. WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE REGION 12Z WEDNESDAY
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO EXPAND ADVISORY A
FEW HOURS PAST 00Z.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER TROUGH IS MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH
SHOULD EXIST FOR PRECIP TO CONTINUE FROM LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS.

NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY AS THE LARGE
TROUGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. WEAK H5 RIDGE DEVELOPS
EARLY FRIDAY BUT A NEW H5 TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH FROM THE WEST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WILL GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS STARTING
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH CHANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AFTER A
COLD DAY ON THURSDAY...TEMPS WILL MODERATE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
BEFORE COOLING OFF AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             59  62  27  49  32 /  90  70  30   0  10
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  55  60  24  43  30 /  90  80  70  10  10
OAK RIDGE, TN                       56  60  24  44  30 /  90  80  70   0  10
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              48  62  21  36  25 /  80  90  70  20  10
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: CHEROKEE...CLAY.

TN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/
     WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: ANDERSON...BLEDSOE...
     BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS...BRADLEY...CAMPBELL...CLAIBORNE...
     COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS...EAST POLK...GRAINGER...HAMBLEN...
     HAMILTON...HANCOCK...HAWKINS...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...KNOX...
     LOUDON...MARION...MCMINN...MEIGS...MORGAN...NW BLOUNT...
     NORTH SEVIER...NORTHWEST CARTER...NORTHWEST COCKE...
     NORTHWEST GREENE...NORTHWEST MONROE...RHEA...ROANE...SCOTT
     TN...SEQUATCHIE...SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS...SOUTHEAST
     CARTER...SOUTHEAST GREENE...SOUTHEAST MONROE...SULLIVAN...
     UNICOI...UNION...WASHINGTON TN...WEST POLK.

VA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 8 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LEE...RUSSELL...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...WISE.
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&&

$$