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000
FXUS64 KMRX 060137
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
835 PM EST THU DEC 5 2013

.DISCUSSION...
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CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG COLD FRONT ALONG THE
CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...PRODUCING A SHARP TEMP GRADIENT RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 60S OVER THE GREAT TN VALLEY TO THE UPPER 30S OVER MIDDLE
TN. THIS COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO ONLY SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD
TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS PARALLEL TO THIS SURFACE
BOUNDARY. AREA RADARS REVEAL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING...BUT SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE LATER
TONIGHT AS A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKIES AND
INCREASES LIFT OVER THE TN AND OHIO RIVER VALLEYS. TEMP FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT WILL BE VERY TRICKY DUE TO THE SHARP TEMP GRADIENT ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT OF THIS SHARP GRADIENT...THE NAM AND GFS
GUIDANCE NUMBERS SHOW SOME DISCREPANCIES WITH THE MIN FORECAST FOR
TONIGHT. FOR NOW...WILL COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE TWO SETS OF
GUIDANCE.

WILL ALSO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS EVENING TO REMOVE ANY EVENING
PRECIP WORDING OF THUNDER. SOME ELEVATED THUNDER IS STILL BEING
OBSERVED OVER MIDDLE TN...BUT MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABILIZING
AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN   60  68  39  47  40 / 100 100 100  20 100
KNOXVILLE AIRPORT, TN     60  68  38  48  36 / 100 100 100  20  90
OAK RIDGE, TN             55  63  36  44  36 / 100 100 100  20  90
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN    59  66  38  47  34 / 100 100 100  20  70
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DMG