Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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861 FXUS64 KMRX 301939 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 339 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight through Saturday Night)... Slow going with the thunderstorm development so far. High confidence that we will have storms tonight as the cold front pushes through the area late tonight, but low confidence on how much will develop ahead of front late this afternoon and into this evening. Anything that can get going earlier will have better heating, but it is questionable how much will get going. By Friday morning, all the focus should be turned to the Carolinas, and just have showers in the forecast for our area by then. Then it slowly dries out the rest of Friday and into Friday night. Main threat will be damaging winds with the strong wind field aloft that can be brought to the surface in stronger downdrafts. Hail looks to be limited to only about quarter size and mainly west of I-75. Tornado threat seems low--even though there is a strong wind field, storm updrafts will be getting pretty weak overall as the storms move in late. .LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)...The long term period has a couple of systems that will impact the forecast area. The superblend targets Monday with the first feature and Thursday with the second with some broadbrushing of lower chance pops around either side of these two periods. We should be able to squeeze out a decent Sunday with a fair amount of sunshine and pleasant temperatures in the 70s. The first system will be another relatively strong upper trough building into the region on Monday. The superblend is a little closer to the more northern ecmwf depiction of the storm system low pressure center in comparison to the gfs. This system will have some modest shear and instability so kept some mention of convection in this period with decreasing probability of precipitation on the back side of the system on Tuesday. The end of the extended period features a blending of the ecmwf and gfs solutions, due to positioning and timing differences with a rather strong mid latitude cyclone expected in the Southern Appalachian region around the Wednesday into Thursday timeframe. Slightly higher chance pops were weighted further out in time to Thursday with the system cold fropa. Convection looks very probable with this strong system so applied this concept to the new day seven forecast.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 68 48 73 / 80 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 66 46 67 / 80 20 10 0 Oak Ridge, TN 54 66 46 68 / 90 20 10 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 53 64 44 60 / 90 70 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...None. TN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for Blount Smoky Mountains- Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Sevier Smoky Mountains- Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene-Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. VA...None.
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&& $$

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