Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260700 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 300 AM EDT THU MAY 26 2016 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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Currently some precipitation activity moving in from Middle Tennessee, this is associated with a weak upper level disturbance moving across. As this moves across we will see some chances for scattered showers and even some rumbles of thunder as the daylight hours roll around. We will also see an increase in cloud coverage today with the disturbance hopefully helping to keep high temperatures down just a bit. Models continue to produce precipitation activity later today. Currently believe the best chances will be in the mountains and northern counties. Will only continue with slight chances in the forecast as forcing still looks pretty unfavorable for anything widespread this afternoon. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... A high pressure ridge will remain the dominant weather feature across the Deep South for the Memorial Day weekend...but a weak coastal low over the Carolinas...could bring some opportunities for precipitation and cloud cover during the early to middle part of next week. For Friday thru Sunday...mainly dry conditions are expected...but a few isolated to widely scattered storms are possible thanks to the abundant Gulf moisture that is present. This activity will favor the Cumberland Plateau and the East TN/West NC Mountains. A mostly to partly sunny sky will promote very warm conditions each day...in the mid to upper 80s for highs. The aforementioned ridge will gradually begin to break down and shift northeast over the Mid-Atlantic on late this holiday weekend...which will open the door for a weak tropical disturbance to possibly drift toward the region during the early to middle part of the new week. There is some model disagreement on the track and intensity of this feature...with the GFS indicating it may move ashore into SC/NC...and generate cloud cover and much better chances for showers and storms for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. The ECMWF is much less excited about this...and shows this feature remaining off shore...and much drier weather. We will continue to monitor this potential in the coming days...as this will have a large impact on PoP...sky...and temperature forecasts for the middle of the week...especially for those with outdoor plans. For now...show a gradual increase in thunder chances and PoPs each day Monday through Wednesday...with the greatest chances being on Wednesday. Despite the threat for additional cloud cover...the overall forecast will remain quite warm and humid with highs remaining in the 85 to 90 degree range each day.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 90 67 88 67 / 20 10 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 86 65 85 65 / 20 10 20 20 Oak Ridge, TN 86 65 86 65 / 20 10 20 20 Tri Cities Airport, TN 84 61 85 63 / 20 20 20 20
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/AMP

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