Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180725 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 325 AM EDT MON AUG 18 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)... CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM IS LOW AS THEY DO NOT SEEM TO BE RESOLVING THE CURRENT PRECIP AREAS VERY WELL. PRECIP DOES SEEM TO BE INCREASING IN NRN AL AND MIDDLE TN...BUT MUCH LESS THAN MODELS HAVE SHOWN. BEST RAIN CHANCES TODAY APPEAR TO BE IN NORTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH...BUT PW VALUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ARE HIGH. IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET RAIN GOING...SO LIKELY POPS APPEAR WARRANTED AREA WIDE TODAY. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT...BUT MOIST CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE WITH ONLY SOME SLIGHT MIDLEVEL DRYING COMING LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST. WILL LOWER POPS DOWN TO THE CHANCE RANGE...WITH BEST CHANCES NORTHEAST. .LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)... FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WITH A SERIES OF SHORT-WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. FOR THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...LONG-WAVE UPPER TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE NORTHEAST UNITED STATES WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION. A BATTLE GROUND BETWEEN AIR-MASSES WILL SETUP OVER SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA/NORTHEAST TENNESSEE WITH DAILY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROGUH SATURDAY. FEEL THAT GFS IS UNDER-ESTIMATING THE CAPE VALUES GIVEN THE EXPECTED HOT/VERY HUMID AIR ANTICIPATED OVER TENNESSEE. SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS. WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THIS POTENTIAL IN THE HWO. GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN MOS HIGHS DUE TO RECENT PERFORMANCE...AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE FOR LOWS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 71 89 71 / 60 40 20 20 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 70 87 70 / 60 50 30 20 OAK RIDGE, TN 84 69 87 70 / 60 50 30 20 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 80 67 85 66 / 70 50 40 30 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/DH

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