Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 210711 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 311 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...FOR THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKY AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY FOG AND LOW-CLOUDS. FOG WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-MORNING. FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AIR-MASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL BE MARGINALLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. PWS INCREASE TO 1.4-1.5 INCHES...SO ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED-BROKEN THUNDERSTORMS. SOUNDINGS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR AND WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER JET INCREASING TO 30KTS...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE. WILL INCLUDE IN HWO. ALSO...WBZ ARE LOW ENOUGH WITH MARGINAL HAIL-CAPES TO PRODUCE PEA TO 1/2 INCH SIZE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. FRONT MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY 01-03Z THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AND COOLER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE REGION. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...OVERALL VERY QUIET FOR THE EXTENDED. HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY WEATHER THE MAIN FEATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THE FLOW WILL BE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING MUCH COOLER AIR THAN THE AREA HAS SEEN THIS FALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL DURING THIS TIME. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST...MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS HIGH AND ADVECT INTO THE REGION. BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FOR MAINLY OUR SOUTHERN AREAS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 87 60 75 52 / 50 30 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 85 58 72 49 / 60 30 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 85 57 72 48 / 60 30 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 83 55 70 43 / 60 40 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$

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