Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191832 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 232 PM EDT Wed Jul 19 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Thursday)... The few small showers near the mountains this afternoon will dissipate by sunset. The showers/storms in southern IN will track S- SE across KY. A few may make it to the TN border into Middle TN, but with the loss of heating, they should dissipate before reaching our area. They may leave some residual boundaries across our southern sections tomorrow, which could help initiate convection in the afternoon. Similar to today, forecast soundings tomorrow continue to show greater moisture and instability in our southern sections, and drier/stable conditions for northern sections. As a result, a slight chance PoP will be mentioned tomorrow afternoon in the Smokies, SW NC, and soutern Valley/Plateau areas. Temperatures will mainly follow persistence, but perhaps a degree or so warmer as the mid/upper level ridge over the Ozarks builds slightly eastward. Heat Index values in the upper 90s are expected in the southern Valley. .LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Wednesday)... Upper ridge of high pressure will continue to strengthen across the region on Friday. This will continue the hot and humid conditions. Highs should reach into the 90s over most valley locations...and with dew points around the 70 degree mark...heat indices should climb to the mid 90s north to near 105 degrees south. With the strong daytime heating and low level moisture in place...isolated afternoon thunderstorm development is possible over higher elevations. We will then slowly transition into a more active weather patten as a weak short wave moves into the area on Saturday. This will increase cloud cover a bit which will lower high temperatures slightly. It will also increase the chance of convection for the afternoon hours. Sunday through Tuesday...a boundary will settle over the region with a series of weak impulses move along it. This will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The high will dampen over the region as the boundary and added clouds cover settle in...and this should allow temperatures to fall to near normal levels early in the work week. Confidence is quite low by the time we get to Wednesday but the trend is for the boundary to slow move off with a few bands of convection possibly lingering over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 94 74 96 / 10 20 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 71 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 71 92 72 95 / 0 10 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 66 92 68 93 / 0 10 0 10 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ DGS/MJB

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