Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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204 FXUS64 KMRX 221916 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 316 PM EDT Mon May 22 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)...Overall, a brief break in the precip overnight before rain showers and thunderstorms spread back in from the south overnight and through tomorrow. Patches of clear skies will be in place to begin the tonight period but cloud cover will begin to build back in overnight as the next wave of moisture surges in from the southwest. This wave of moisture is associated with a shortwave that will be riding along a stalled frontal boundary just to our southeast. The shortwave is currently across Louisiana/Mississippi and will track northeast overnight into tomorrow along the front. As the shortwave approaches our area chances for showers and storms increase. The best chances for precip look to occur across our southern areas and along our eastern mountains, closer to the frontal boundary and shortwave. The lowest POPs will be up across the Northern Plateau. Higher rainfall amounts expected across the higher POP areas, anywhere from 0.50 inches to 0.75 inches is possible. A few tenths of an inch are possible elsewhere. Due to the location of the boundary, the heaviest precip will stay off to our south and east so no concerns of any flooding as of now. Lows overnight will be mild due to the incoming cloud cover. Temps will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s for most places, which is a few degrees above normal. Tomorrow highs will be in the low to mid 70s due to increased cloud cover and precip, which is a few degrees below normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday Night through Monday)... Primary weather maker will be an H5 closed low digging southward down the upper Mississippi Valley through Wednesday before ejecting eastward across the Tennessee Valley through Thursday. This will bring periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night through Thursday evening, followed by a fair and warmer day Friday. But the progressive weather pattern will persist, with a new storm system moving through the Rockies into the Plains this weekend, tapping Gulf Moisture and bringing into east TN and vicinity waves of scattered convection Saturday through Monday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 63 77 63 75 / 60 50 70 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 61 76 61 74 / 40 50 60 80 Oak Ridge, TN 61 76 61 76 / 20 40 60 80 Tri Cities Airport, TN 59 73 58 73 / 40 50 50 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ SR/GC

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