Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 141913 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 310 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...COLD FRONT IS MAKING PROGRESS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS EVENING. MODEL INSTABILITY NOT TERRIBLY IMPRESSIVE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY SO USED CHANCE TYPE WORDING FOR CONVECTION IN THE CATEGORICAL POP ENVIRONMENT. THE MASS OF SHOWERS WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TRAILING UPPER TROUGH. BASICALLY HAVE THE RAIN ENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MID DAY BUT CONTINUING A LITTLE WHILE LONGER ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTION. MUCH COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE FRONT. MAX TEMPS WILL PROBABLY BE DURING THE MORNING AS STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY. THE TEMPERATURE PROFILE WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW SHOWERS AT ELEVATIONS ABOVE 4000 FT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BY EVENING...THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF ACROSS THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN THE SMOKIES. DON`T EXPECT MUCH MORE THAN AN INCH IN THESE AREAS. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A HARD FREEZE TUESDAY NIGHT AS SKIES CLEAR AND WIND SPEED DROPS. MAINTAINED THE FREEZE WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POSSIBILITY. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE MOVED IN BY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTED LONG WAVE TROUGH. WEDNESDAY`S HIGHS SHOULD BE ROUGHLY 10 TO 12 DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY`S WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...WHICH WILL STILL BE AROUND 8 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY...COMBINED WITH CALM AND CLEAR CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL LEAD TO POSSIBLE FROST ACROSS SOME OF THE NORTHERN AREAS. THE MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN WILL LOOK TO BE FROM KNOXVILLE NORTH BUT MORE SO ACROSS NETN AND ESPECIALLY FOR SWVA. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND WILL NOW BE TO OUR EAST...RESULTING IN A A RETURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO BE EVEN WARMER ON THURSDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT WE SHOULD BE CLEAR OF ANY FROST DANGER AS TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TOWARD CHATT...LOW TO MID 40S FOR KNOX...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE TRI-CITIES. HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE OFF TO OUR EAST ON FRIDAY AS OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACHES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BUT QUICKLY RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS MAY PROVIDE US WITH SOME SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING BUT THE CENTER OF THE LOW IS SO FAR NORTH THAT IT SHOULDN`T CAUSE US TOO MANY PROBLEMS OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER. CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY HANG AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY SATURDAY BUT STARTING TO CLEAR BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE GFS AND ECMWF GREATLY DIFFER ON SUNDAY...GFS SHOWS A WET SUNDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS DRY WITH A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER US. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE UNTIL MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR DIFFERENCES. WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH MONDAY AS MODELS SHOW YET ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. SATURDAY AND SUNDAYS HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER 60S TO THE LOW 70S. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD BACK IN WITH TEMPS SIMILAR TO SAT AND SUN. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 48 52 30 64 / 100 60 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 47 50 27 61 / 100 80 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 49 27 60 / 100 80 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 51 53 25 60 / 100 90 10 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL- CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN- HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON- MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS-MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE- RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN-SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN- UNICOI-UNION-WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ 20/SR

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