Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KMRX 022024
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
324 PM EST Fri Dec 2 2016
.SHORT TERM /Tonight and Saturday/...
Quiet weather continues across the region this afternoon, with high
pressure in control. Clouds will begin to filter into the region
overnight ahead of a developing upper-level storm system to the
west. The result will be a partly sunny to partly cloudy day on
Saturday, with a NE (down Valley) flow. Thus, a slightly cooler
day is expected with highs peaking in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
The main concern continues to be the fire situation in the Great
Smoky Mountains. Wind speeds will be light, but a few erratic
higher gusts will be possible along the higher terrain. Late in the
afternoon, a few light showers may peak into the Southern Plateau,
but otherwise any rain chances should hold off until after 00z.
.LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Friday/...
Will move into an active weather pattern for the extended.
Southerly flow over the region will bring low level moisture into
the area early in the period. In conjunction with this...a short
wave moving in from the southwest and a low pressure system to the
north will phase together and move through the Southern Appalachian
Region and spread a band of showers from west to east across the
area Saturday night and Sunday. Cool...near freezing...temperatures
overnight across some northern location and higher elevation should
allow for a mix of rain and snow by early Sunday morning. Little to
no accumulations is expected. Then...immediately behind this...a
low pressure system that tracked through Mexico and TX will push
into the MRX CWA for Monday and Tuesday...continuing the high
chance/likely pops over the region.
Models differ through the rest of the extended and confidence is
low. Current GFS wants to bring a weak secondary frontal boundary
through on Tuesday night/Wednesday...then briefly see a break in the
activity around the Thursday time frame and then a trough axis
moving in around Thursday night. The ECMWF has us between systems
Wednesday with another system moving in Thursday/Thursday night. With
lingering precip and timing and strength of the system in question
through the rest of the extended...will continue with 20 to 30 pops
for this period. Cooler air moving in late in the period could
allow for scattered light snow or flurries Thursday night and a few
lingering snow showers north on Friday.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN 35 52 42 50 / 0 10 80 80
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80
Oak Ridge, TN 32 49 39 47 / 0 0 60 80
Tri Cities Airport, TN 28 46 34 45 / 0 0 30 60