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000
FXUS64 KMRX 141459
AFDMRX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
1059 AM EDT Thu Sep 14 2017

.DISCUSSION...
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Morning satellite and surface observations show the remnant low
of Irma located across SE Ohio. WV imagery indicates dry air and
subsidence aloft across the Tennessee Valley and this is
reflected in forecast soundings showing very shallow moisture and
an inversion near 600mb. A few areas of vorticity maxima are
rotating around the low this morning helping to generate a few
light rain showers across the region, but lift is very weak. As
the day progresses, this low should move to the northeast taking
the best lift with it. This will result in decreasing rain chances
through the afternoon with some clearing sky conditions expected
from SW to NE across the forecast area this afternoon. However,
cannot rule out a few light rain showers remaining across
northeast TN/southwest VA late this afternoon and into the early
overnight hours.

Made no adjustments to the temperature and dew point forecast
because they are right on track with current observations.
Adjusted PoPs to indicate decreasing chances of rain through the
afternoon, especially across southwestern portions of the forecast
area. Also went ahead and added mention of fog to the grids for
late tonight and early Friday morning with abundant low-level
moisture and decreasing cloud cover.
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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN             78  63  83  65 /  20   0   0   0
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  75  61  82  62 /  50  10   0   0
Oak Ridge, TN                       74  60  82  63 /  50  10   0   0
Tri Cities Airport, TN              71  56  79  57 /  50  20  10   0
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&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
TN...None.
VA...None.
&&

$$

JB