Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 282020 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 320 PM EST Mon Nov 28 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Tomorrow)... Overview: Relief is finally on the way tonight as rain moves into the area. Current radar imagery shows showers just now moving into Middle TN. Latest soundings still showing very dry air in the mid levels across our area so it will be later tonight before we see any beneficial precip. Soundings moisten up later tonight as a 60 to 70kt 850mb jet, and associated moisture, surges into the area. We are already seeing wind gusts ranging from 40 to 50 mph above 2000 feet. Rain moves out later tomorrow morning and the winds begin to settle. Inversion will remain in place through good portion of the night. Expect smoke issues to remain. Lows tonight in the low to mid 50s. SPS for enhanced fire danger will last through 01z this evening, as rain will move in shortly thereafter. Rain: The bulk of the precip should moves through between midnight and 7 AM. Downsloping winds along the foothills will keep that area the driest the longest. Rain does eventually overtake this area though. PW values max out overnight for this time of year. Still expecting around an inch of rainfall across the Central/Southern Valley and Southwest North Carolina through tomorrow morning, with locally higher amounts. Half an inch up across Northeast TN and Southwest VA. Winds: Strongest jet core generally moves across from 00z through 09z. Wind advisory and High wind warning remain in place through 12z tomorrow morning. Sustained winds from 15 to 30 mph possible across valley locations with gusts from 35 to 45 mph. The higher elevations, sustained winds from 20 to 40 mph with gusts up to 55 mph, with locally higher gusts over 60 mph. These winds will begin to settle as the jet core move east of the Appalachians later tomorrow morning. Tomorrow: A few showers could linger late tomorrow morning but the bulk of precip is finished. Boundary doesn`t quite push through and hangs up somewhere across the Appalachians. Other than a few possible spotty showers, most of the day should be dry. However, chances start increasing late in the day across far southern areas as our next wave begins to move in from the south-southwest. Late in the day, CAPEs start building and wind shear begins to increase. Don`t have any sig weather moving in for the tomorrow period but a few strong storms possible just beyond this period. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 60s to low 70s, around 15 degrees above normal. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)...Models in decent agreement early...but have poor agreement/consistency late in the period. Forecast confidence is about average for this time of year early...but below average late. Upper trough and a cold front will be moving in early in the period. Strong southwesterly low level jet will feed considerable moisture into the area ahead of the front...and expect another round of significant precipitation for Tue night and Wed. Wind direction looks more southwest at this time so does not look like a mountain wave situation...but will have to monitor wind direction closely as it gets closer. Even if no mountain waves may see advisory level winds ahead of the front. Shear will be strong and should be enough instability for some thunderstorms especially Tuesday night...so will continue mention of possible severe storms in the HWO. Looks dry behind the front Thursday and Friday as colder and drier air moves in...then models agree there will be a possibility of more rain sometime during the weekend/Monday time frame. However...with the poor model agreement...will just broad brush some slight chance to chance PoPs for those periods for now.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 56 73 61 64 / 100 40 90 100 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 55 72 59 67 / 100 70 90 100 Oak Ridge, TN 54 70 58 64 / 100 50 90 100 Tri Cities Airport, TN 50 67 57 64 / 90 80 80 100
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Cherokee-Clay. TN...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Blount Smoky Mountains-Cocke Smoky Mountains-Johnson-Northwest Carter- Sevier Smoky Mountains-Southeast Carter-Southeast Greene- Southeast Monroe-Unicoi. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ Tuesday for Anderson- Bledsoe-Bradley-Campbell-Claiborne-East Polk-Grainger- Hamblen-Hamilton-Hancock-Hawkins-Jefferson-Knox-Loudon- Marion-McMinn-Meigs-Morgan-NW Blount-North Sevier-Northwest Cocke-Northwest Greene-Northwest Monroe-Rhea-Roane-Scott TN- Sequatchie-Sullivan-Union-Washington TN-West Polk. VA...High Wind Warning until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Wise. Wind Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for Lee-Russell-Scott- Washington. && $$ SR/LW

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