Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 260831 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 331 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014 .SHORT TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH THANKSGIVING DAY/...AN UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRACK INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING... SPREADING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS. WHILE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ARE BEING MAINTAINED IN THE VALLEYS...COLDER AIR PRESENT ALOFT IS PRODUCING SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS /MAINLY ABOVE 2500 FEET/. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED INDICATE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL PRODUCTION ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEAST MOUNTAIN ZONES /WHERE MEAN WINDS MAY ALSO HELP TO ENHANCES SOME OROGRAPHIC LIFT LOCALLY DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF THE MOUNTAINS THERE/. AS A RESULT...A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JOHNSON...CARTER AND UNICOI MOUNTAIN AREAS AS TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE COMMON ALONG THE HIGHEST AREAS/. ADVISORY-LEVEL SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 4 INCHES MORE COMMON ELSEWHERE ACROSS ELEVATED AREAS OF SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND THE SMOKY MOUNTAINS. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS DRY AIR FILTERS IN AND THE SYSTEM QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST. LOW CLOUDS MAY LINGER FOR MOST OF THE DAY ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...BUT SOME CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEY BY THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING HIGHS TO CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 50S. ANOTHER RAPIDLY APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION TONIGHT...ALONG WITH A SHOT OF COOLER AIR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING ON THANKSGIVING DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET...WITH TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS ACROSS THE BLUE RIDGE/SMOKY MOUNTAINS OF EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IN THE VALLEY...SNOW WILL LIKELY MIX WITH RAIN AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT INTO THANKSGIVING MORNING. HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING...RESULTING IN LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH SNOWFALL WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...GIVEN THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL /AND THE PREVIOUS SNOWFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY/...THINK A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED FROM MIDNIGHT THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY FOR THE FAR NORTHEAST/EAST TENNESSEE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE KTRI SOUNDING SHOWS A PERIOD AROUND 12Z WHERE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH MAY BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THIS...HAVE ALSO INCLUDED SULLIVAN AND WASHINGTON TN COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL JUST BELOW FREEZING THANKSGIVING MORNING THERE. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY WANE BY THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS MOISTURE DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY /RESULTING IN A COOLER BUT DRY END TO THE HOLIDAY/. .LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE JUST ABOUT TO EXIT THE REGION BY THE START OF THE LONG TERM GRIDS...BUT I KEPT CONTINUITY WITH A FEW HOURS OF FLURRIES OR STRAY SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE FAR NE COUNTIES. AFTERWARDS...ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FOR FRIDAY WITH A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...THEN ACTUALLY SLIPPING OFF TO THE SE COASTAL AREAS BY 06Z SATURDAY. 500 MB HEIGHTS RISE JUST SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND KEEPING MAINLY A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS SHOULD EQUATE TO A FEW DRY DAYS BEFORE A WEAK COLD FRONT TRIES TO EASE SE TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE SUPER BLENDED GRIDS TOSSED IN LOW POPS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT QPF FROM MODELS IS EXTREMELY LIGHT MAINLY TO OUR NW IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WARM FRONT. THUS...I OPTED TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT. NUDGED POPS UP TO LOW CHANCE FOR MONDAY WHEN THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE PASSING NEAR OR ACROSS THE REGION. MOS POPS REMAIN BELOW CLIMO FOR TUESDAY...AND THE SUPER BLENDED POPS WERE EVEN LOWER...SO STAYING WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR TUESDAY FOR NOW. ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS FROM SUNDAY THROUGH PROBABLY WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE APPRECIATED BY MOST FOLKS. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 52 35 47 28 / 20 20 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 50 33 46 26 / 40 30 30 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 50 34 45 27 / 30 40 20 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 42 31 42 23 / 90 50 60 20 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS- SOUTHEAST GREENE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS- JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI- WASHINGTON TN. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR JOHNSON-SOUTHEAST CARTER-UNICOI. VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL- SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EST THURSDAY FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT-WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ AMP/TG

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