Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 212003 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 305 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014 .SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT AND SATURDAY) SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHIFTS EAST ON SATURDAY. DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WITH ANOTHER NIGHT OF GOOD COOLING. LOWS COOLER THAN NORMAL ESPECIALLY ACROSS NE TN AND SW VA. MOSTLY SUNNY ON SATURDAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL. .LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY) SLIGHT RIDGING IS STILL BUILDING IN LEADING TO CONTINUED WARMING UP THAT SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MOST EXCITING PART OF THE FORECAST WILL COME ASSOCIATED WITH A AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CURRENTLY SITTING SOUTH OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE U.S. BEFORE BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT MOVES JUST NORTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. POPS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOK NEARLY INTACT WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN COMING EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS PRECIP SPREADS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST. HEAVY RAIN AND EVEN SOME POSSIBLE THUNDER WILL BE LIKELY, AND ALTHOUGH POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IS PRESENT, THINK THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE THROUGH QUICK ENOUGH TO BELAY ANY FLOODING. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE A MOUNTAIN WAVE EVENT IN THE FOOTHILLS. DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS 850 WINDS START TO VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AND PICK UP SPEED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA, LEADING TO A FAVORABLE SET UP FOR MOUNTAIN WAVES. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO MAKE SURE THERE IS A STABLE LAYER TO AID IN ITS FORMATION. WILL HOLD OF FOR NOW ON ANY SORT OF WIND PRODUCT AND LET A COUPLE OF RUNS OF HIGHER RES MODELS COME IN SINCE THEY CAN SAMPLE THE TERRAIN BETTER. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH TEMPS WILL TAKE A BIT OF A DIVE STARTING TUESDAY AND ONLY REACHING INTO THE 40`S AND MAYBE 50`S. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NEAR THE VICINITY OF THE AREA LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN/SNOW. MOULTON && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 36 59 42 58 / 0 10 60 90 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 30 56 40 60 / 0 10 30 80 OAK RIDGE, TN 31 56 39 58 / 0 10 40 80 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 24 53 34 59 / 0 10 10 90 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON

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