Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 111914 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 314 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2017 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Saturday)...The atmosphere continues to be quite moist and very weak mid level disturbances have been helping to trigger convection at times. The latest mid level wave will exit tonight, then a weak cold front will push into the area on Saturday. Will carry chance PoPs all areas tonight, with likely PoPs on Saturday as the front moves in. Will mention possibility of heavy rain leading to localized flooding in the HWO for the period, but widespread flooding issues not expected. MAV temps look reasonable for the short term. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)...Overall, unsettled pattern through most of the long term period with not a ton of forecast confidence as models have been varying. We start the period with a few showers and storms around but the bulk of the precip will have moved off to the east as a cold front is entering the area. The front pushes through overnight Saturday with drier air building in behind the front. Models show the front stalling just to the east of the Appalachians on Sunday. This will keep chance POPs in for our eastern mountains with that boundary in proximity. Also, will have slight chance POP in for the Southern TN Valley as a shortwave approaches from out of the Plains but most areas will by dry on Sunday with the brief bout of drier air in place. Drier air quickly becomes a thing of the past Sunday night into Monday as the atmosphere moistens in response to the aforementioned shortwave progressing closer. Chances of showers and storms in place through the day on Monday. The old boundary from Saturday night becomes washed out by Tuesday but its remnants may lift northward with the shortwave moving across the area, this will lead to chances for showers and storms again on Tuesday. Weak, secondary, front associated with the shortwave on Tuesday pushes through Tuesday night/Wednesday with drier air and high pressure trying to briefly work back in for Wednesday. Still have slight chance and low-end chance POPs in for Wednesday with residual moisture lingering. Chance POPs in place again for showers and storms on Thursday and Friday ahead of another front associated with a low pressure center moving across the Great Lakes Region. We will see periods of sun, and some more than others, but clouds around through much of the period will keep temperatures near normal.
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 73 87 71 87 / 50 60 20 20 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 72 85 67 86 / 50 60 20 10 Oak Ridge, TN 72 85 67 86 / 50 60 20 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 83 63 83 / 50 70 20 20
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