Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 060809 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 309 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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A QUIET MORNING ACROSS THE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILING AT THE SURFACE. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY EXIT TO THE EAST...AS A BROAD TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TODAY. WHILE DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...A BROAD AREA OF BKN/OVC MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE DAY...MAKING FOR A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY. SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 45 TO 50 DEGREE RANGE IN MOST AREAS TODAY...BUT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL CUT DOWN ON HEATING SLIGHTLY...SO HAVE GONE A DEGREE OR SO BELOW GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT...THIS TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH AND CLEAR THE AREA BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...THE SKY WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...MAKING FOR A CHILLY MORNING ONCE AGAIN ON SUNDAY. .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BOTH SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL PRODUCE DRY CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY WITH MILD CONDITIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL CONTINUE BE A DEVELOPING LONG-WAVE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN RESPECT TO THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW. ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE STRONGEST. EITHER WAY A TROUGH AXIS AND ASSOCIATED JET DYNAMICS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS MONDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW STEEPENING LAPSE RATE AS UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COLDER AIR ALOFT. FAIRLY DECENT LOW-LEVEL CAPES WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WILL CALL FOR LIKELY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE IS TRICKY AND WILL BEGIN AS RAIN IN THE VALLEY AND MIXTURE OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS...THEN CHANGING TO ALL SNOW DUIRNG THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT UNCERTAIN FOR THE VALLEY. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS WITHIN THE HWO AND SPS. DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION MONDAY...DID NOT FOLLOW TYPICAL DIURNAL CURVE. HAVE HIGHS IN THE MORNING...THEN DROPPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. FOR TUESDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW OROGRAPHIC SNOW ANTICIPATED WITH FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS ANTICIPATED AREA-WIDE. AGAIN...HIGHER ELEVATIONS SNOW ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY. FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES ACROSS SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE. FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SURFACE RIDGING AND DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 31 56 35 / 0 0 0 30 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 30 52 34 / 0 0 0 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 48 30 54 34 / 0 0 0 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 44 25 49 30 / 0 0 0 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/DH

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