Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 180646 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 AM EDT THU SEP 18 2014 .SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
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AN AREA OF BKN/OVC HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD COVER HAS LIKELY PREVENTED ANY WIDESPREAD FOG FROM FORMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN VALLEYS. HOWEVER...MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS OVER SW VIRGINIA AND NE TENNESSEE HAS PROMOTED SOME PATCHY FOG WHICH WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH DAYBREAK. THIS CLOUD COVER WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ONCE HEATING BEGINS AND THE DAYTIME BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE. A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...BUT AMPLE SUNSHINE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. A CLEAR AND CALM NIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW NIGHTS WITH LESS CLOUD COVER EXPECTED. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VERY NICE WEATHER FOR THE EXTENDED PERIODS WITH JUST ONE WEAK SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL DRAG A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY MONDAY. GFS AND ECMWF SIMILIAR ON TIMING AND CONSISTENT FROM 12Z RUN...SO CHANCE POPS STILL LOOK GOOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. I DID LOWER THE POPS A BIT FASTER AT 18Z MONDAY. OTHERWISE...00Z GFSX MOS CAME IN SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN THE 12Z MOS... AND ACTUALLY CLOSER TO THE LATEST ECMWF MOS. SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS ON DAYS WHEN THE SFC-850 MB FLOW SHIFTS TO WEAK SOUTHERLY. MAX AND MIN TEMPS RUN GENERALLY CLOSE TO SEASONAL VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 83 60 84 63 / 0 0 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 80 57 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 80 56 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 77 52 80 56 / 0 0 10 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ AMP/TG

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