Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221837 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 237 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016 .SHORT TERM (Tonight and Monday)...
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The low pressure over the east coast will continue to push moisture and energy around and through SW VA and far NE TN. Scattered showers will be possible in the late afternoon and evening hours...but very little instability is present...so not expecting anything strong or long lived. For the rest of the area tonight...a tight pressure gradient is causing gusty winds which will persist through late tonight. Mostly clear skies will remain through the short term...with temperatures dropping down tonight in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Tomorrow...high pressure begins to influence the area with mostly clear skies and dry weather. Only exception is far SW VA with that pesky low pushing more moisture through. Any precip Monday afternoon will be short lived with little to no accumulation. .LONG TERM...LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE THAT THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WHICH WILL BRING WARM WEATHER TO THE REGION MAY NOT BE SO QUICK TO RECENTER ITSELF OFFSHORE. GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THAT THE LATE PERIOD EASTERLY WAVE...WHEN OVER THE BAHAMAS...WILL HELP THE BERMUDA HIGH HAVE A SECONDARY CENTER NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST...WHICH MEANS MAYBE WE WON`T HAVE QUITE AS MUCH UNSETTLEDNESS DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...AS THE RIDGING MAY HELP KEEP THE BRUNT OF THE SWLY MOISTURE FLOW TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. WE SHALL SEE. MEANTIME...SUGGESTIONS ARE THAT THE EASTERLY WAVE WILL STAY TO OUR EAST...WHICH WILL KEEP US ON THE DRIER WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WHEN AND IF IT MATERIALIZES. ALL IN ALL...TUES/WED WILL BE NICE...WITH WARM AND HUMID WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 55 82 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 53 77 55 83 / 10 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 52 78 54 84 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 48 72 52 80 / 20 10 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ JW/GC

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