Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 041846 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 PM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND SUNDAY)...PERSISTENT PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA. UPPER TROUGH TO OUR WEST FORECAST TO CUT OFF AND DRIFT OVER OUR AREA DURING THE PERIOD. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SHOWERS AROUND...BUT CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO RESTRICT HEATING/INSTABILITY WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THUNDER. WILL CARRY CAT POPS BOTH PERIODS. GIVEN HOW WET THE GROUND IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WILL ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO CONTINUE AS IS. MAV TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK REASONABLE...SO JUST SOME MINOR TWEAKS. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...MODELS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE START OF THE LONG TERM. SUNDAY NIGHT WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS A CLOSED OFF UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE MID STATE SPINS OVERHEAD. BOTH MODELS SHOW THIS LOW WEAKENING AND PULLING OFF TO OUR NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. IT DOES LOOK LIKE WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME CLEARING ON MONDAY AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY. CLEARING WILL BEGIN MONDAY MORNING FIRST ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS WHILE NETN AND SWVA MAY NOT SEE CLEARING UNTIL LATER AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SAME APPLIES TO PRECIP CHANCES. OUR NE AREAS WILL HOLD ON TO PRECIP THE LONGEST...LIKELY THROUGH A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY. THE NAM WANTS TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE DAY ON MONDAY ACROSS AREAS THAT CLEAR OUT EARLY. THIS IS DUE TO AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY BECAUSE OF THE RETURNING SUNSHINE AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT HANGING AROUND FROM THE LOW. NONETHELESS...MONDAY WILL BE OUR FIRST DAY IN QUITE SOME TIME FOR MOST AREAS TO SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SUNSHINE. MODELS STILL SHOWING WEAK RIDGING ON TUESDAY THAT WILL GIVE US OUR BEST CHANCE FOR A DRY DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...DIURNAL SCATTERED CONVECTION STILL POSSIBLE. THE SHORT LIVED DRY STREAK ENDS ABRUPTLY ON WEDNESDAY AS WE REENTER AN UNSETTLE WEATHER PATTERN. SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY DIPS DOWN TOWARD OUR AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND HANGS AROUND THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS BOUNDARY MAY STALL TO OUR NORTH BUT WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY THINGS ARE LOOKING DRIER AGAIN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SOUTH AND THE WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXITS TO THE EAST.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 68 81 68 86 / 80 80 30 40 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 67 79 67 85 / 80 80 50 40 OAK RIDGE, TN 68 78 66 85 / 80 80 40 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 67 79 65 81 / 80 80 70 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR CHEROKEE-CLAY. TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR ANDERSON-BLEDSOE- BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-BRADLEY-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-EAST POLK-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK- HAWKINS-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KNOX-LOUDON-MARION-MCMINN-MEIGS- MORGAN-NW BLOUNT-NORTH SEVIER-NORTHWEST CARTER-NORTHWEST COCKE-NORTHWEST GREENE-NORTHWEST MONROE-RHEA-ROANE-SCOTT TN- SEQUATCHIE-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER- SOUTHEAST GREENE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-SULLIVAN-UNICOI-UNION- WASHINGTON TN-WEST POLK. VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR LEE-RUSSELL-SCOTT- WASHINGTON-WISE. && $$ LW/SR

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