Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 171959 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 259 PM EST Fri Feb 17 2017 .SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday)...
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A weak H5 trough will move eastward through the area Saturday, bringing cloudcover, showers, and cooler temperatures. That will not last long, as high pressure quickly builds back in by Sunday, and temperatures climb to well above normal readings. The warmth will continue into the extended period. .LONG TERM (Sunday Night through Friday)...High pressure remains in control through Monday night with dry conditions and above normal temperatures. Model consistency is still poor with the next weather event. The GFS moves a decent cold front through Tuesday night with more moisture and the drier ECMWF holds off the precip until Wednesday morning as a disintegrating cold front moves through. It appears that the limiting factor for how much moisture can make it up into our forecast area will be the strength of the closed low over the Gulf and the ability for associated convection along the Gulf Coast to cut off the northward flow of moisture. For now, have just broadbrushed chance/ slight chance PoPs for this time period. Another low pressure system will strengthen over the Midwest by late week, and models all indicate the associated cold front pushing through sometime next weekend, but differences in timing and amount of moisture that far out in the forecast will result in more broadbrushed chance PoPs for Friday into the weekend. Warm air will remain firmly entrenched over the forecast area for the duration of the extended period with high temperatures 10-20 degrees above normal for this time of year.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 44 62 46 70 / 10 60 10 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 41 60 46 66 / 0 40 40 0 Oak Ridge, TN 41 60 47 67 / 0 40 40 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 36 59 44 65 / 0 40 50 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ GC/EMH

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