Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 270707 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 307 AM EDT TUE SEP 27 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday night)...
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The cold front has been making slow eastward progress across the area as it is nearly parallel to the midlevel flow, but is just about to our eastern border, aligned with the back edge of the showers. The front hangs up over the mountains today, so will maintain a slight chance pop over SW NC and the Smokies through the afternoon. Elsewhere, dry air will build in from the west and clear out most clouds this morning, leaving mostly sunny skies by the afternoon, and highs between 75 and 80. A closed mid/upper level low over the upper Great Lakes this morning will drop southward into IN/OH by Wednesday. A surface cold front along with a sharp drop in 500 mb temps will help generate showers Wednesday afternoon and Thursday evening. The entrance region of the upper jet appears to be in a good position to provide some divergence aloft across the northern half, so thunder and possibly some small hail cannot be ruled out. Dynamic forcing for showers/storms will be lacking as the low continues a southeast drift into Thursday, but with midlevel temps continuing to be quite cool, instability may result in some scattered to isolated showers. Temps will be cooler as well under the low, with highs in the 60s to lower 70s on Thursday, and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday night. .LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)... Deep Upper Ohio Valley low pressure system will hang around for one last day on Friday with a small chance of a shower; mainly across Southwest Virginia, a small part of Northeast Tennessee as well as the Cumberland Plateau. The piece of short wave energy driving this possibility will have shifted east of the forecast area by Saturday with some drier air rotating through the low pressure circulation across Southern Appalachian region. The dry air and the gradual departure of the upper low/trough leads to the possibility of a dry weekend and beginning of the work week along with a pleasant warming trend which begins with temperatures about five degrees below normal on Friday and ends with maxes about five degrees above normal by Monday.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 80 55 81 57 / 0 0 10 30 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 76 53 79 55 / 0 0 20 50 Oak Ridge, TN 77 52 79 54 / 0 0 20 50 Tri Cities Airport, TN 75 51 77 54 / 10 0 20 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$

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