Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 191914 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 314 PM EDT MON SEP 19 2016 .SHORT TERM (Today through Tomorrow)...
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Sun is breaking through again this afternoon and temperatures are rising back up to around normal to slightly above normal. We will have some remnant clouds over as a weak short wave moves over us behind the frontal system. With the increased moisture from the rainfall yesterday we will likely see a round of fog overnight, especially in locations that received abundant rainfall. The densest fog will likely be further north where heavier rainfall occurred, and less fog further south in the valley. The mostly sunny weather will continue into tomorrow and temperatures will begin to climb again with most locations expected to be 5 or more degrees above normal. The shortwave that moved over us will likely dive south and could become cut off over the Carolinas. This would allow wrap around moisture and rain along Virginia/North Carolina. The models are currently showing some QPF seeping into Tennessee/SW Virginia from this activity... But I currently believe that the moisture will be shallow and will likely get caught up on the terrain of the Southern Appalachian Mountains and that most of the rainfall will remain to the east of the mountains tomorrow. LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)... Little change in the long term forecast with a mostly dry forecast period ahead. With high pressure centered to our west, Tuesday night models still show a weak low over the Coastal Carolinas with the bulk of any precip and cloud cover staying on the leeward side of the Appalachians. From Tuesday night through Thursday there could be periods of increased cloudiness and slight chances of rain over the far eastern mountains as this low wobbles up and down the coast. The NAM is most aggressive in brining clouds and precip into our most eastern areas whereas the GFS shows little if any. At this time, will continue the trend of hedging toward the GFS solution but will continue to watch the models as the slightest wobble here or there could change things. Elsewhere during this time, expect dry conditions with temperatures in the mid and upper 80s with lows in the mid to upper 60s. Friday, the ridge moves further east and pushes the weak low offshore. Expect a dry day with the exception of a few diurnal showers and storms across the eastern mountains with temps still in the upper 80s. The warmth and dry conditions continue for Saturday as the ridge is centered over us. A weak front will move through in the Sunday/Monday time-frame but it looks to be a relatively dry frontal passage as there isn`t a ton of moisture accompanying it. For now, slight chances of rain in place for both days with temps still in the 80s.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 67 91 66 90 / 0 0 0 10 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 66 87 65 87 / 0 0 0 10 Oak Ridge, TN 65 88 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Tri Cities Airport, TN 61 86 60 85 / 0 10 0 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ ABM/SR

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