Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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947 FXUS64 KMRX 261849 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 249 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2016 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Tomorrow)... Ongoing convection this afternoon will taper off around sunset, and skies will partially clear overnight. Patchy fog will develop tonight, especially near rivers and lakes and in areas that see rain this afternoon. For Wednesday, expect another afternoon of scattered convection as instability increases with daytime heating. Limited forcing will minimize the severe threat, with a stationary boundary remaining stretched across the Ohio Valley and far enough to the north to not impact our area. High temperatures will again be slightly above normal on Wednesday, reaching the lower 90s in the Tennessee Valley, mid to upper 80s across the Cumberland Plateau, and the mid 70s to lower 80s in the mountains. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)... The closed low pressure system over the MS Delta region today will continue its northward drift, becoming positioned over West TN Wednesday night. On Thursday it transitions to an open wave and gets picked up by a shortwave trough moving into the Ohio Valley. As this occurs, a steady stream of Gulf moisture will feed into the area, The NAM is more progressive and a little deeper with the 850-700 mb trough than the GFS, showing the best rain chances on Thursday. Will lean the forecast in this direction, increasing pops Thursday and lowering them slightly on Friday. There will be some potential for locally heavy rain Wednesday night through Friday as the trough movement is slow and the deep SW flow may result in training cells. Increased cloud cover and rain chances will bring temperatures back to near or slightly below normal both days. Over the weekend, a broad trough remains over the Ohio and TN Valley region as a ridge builds over the Plains, but the Atlantic ridge begins to build back to the west along the Gulf coast. With a westerly low to midlevel flow, the SW flow of Gulf moisture will be cut off. This should result in rain chances lowering through the weekend, with showers becoming more scattered in coverage and diurnal in timing. Chance pops during the day with slight chance pops at night will be forecast for Saturday through Tuesday, with temperatures near to slightly above normal each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 75 91 75 87 / 20 40 60 70 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 92 74 86 / 30 30 50 70 Oak Ridge, TN 74 91 74 84 / 30 30 50 70 Tri Cities Airport, TN 71 92 70 86 / 40 40 40 70 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ EMH/DGS

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