Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 200800 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 300 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH TO OUR NORTH THIS MORNING...BRINGING IN SOME LOW TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES...MAINLY OVER NORTHEASTERN LOCATIONS. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL OUT OF THE AREA BY MID MORNING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FOR CLEARING SKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES TODAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW 50S SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS. .LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT OVERALL...ALTHOUGH DIFFERENCES INCREASE A BIT LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS ABOUT AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTHEAST INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A WARMING TREND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY AND A COLD FRONT MONDAY. RAIN WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SOME THUNDER MAY OCCUR MAINLY SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS SUNDAY AS WELL. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE DIRECTION WILL BE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A HIGH WIND EVENT DUE TO MOUNTAIN WAVES IN THE USUAL HIGHER ELEVATION AND FOOTHILLS LOCATIONS. WILL MENTION THREAT IN HWO. UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AND THERE MAY BE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW WHICH WILL HELP TO BRING A FEW SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES...ALTHOUGH THE DETAILS STILL HAZY THIS FAR OUT. WILL JUST HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MAINLY NORTH AND EAST ZONES TUE THROUGH WED.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 50 30 55 36 / 0 0 0 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 46 26 51 31 / 0 0 0 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 46 26 50 31 / 0 0 0 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 43 22 46 25 / 10 0 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ MJB/LW

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