Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 240705 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 246 AM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD WEAKLY SW DOWN THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FALL SLIGHTLY BUT REMAIN HIGH ALONG THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY CONTINUE. UPPER RIDGING BUILDS NE INTO E TN AND OH RIVER VALLEYS. SCATTERED...MAINLY AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH BETTER CHANCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN TRAIL. .LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED OM MONDAY AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. AS THE HIGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND CAP DEVELOP...SUPPRESSING CONVECTION FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND SHOULD ONCE AGAIN SEE NORMAL SUMMERTIME DIURNAL CONVECTION DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN POOR AGREEMENT LATE IN THE PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW...ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GFS CONTINUE TO BRING THE FRONT IN ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY FOR SATURDAY.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 72 90 67 / 40 30 30 10 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 71 88 65 / 40 30 20 10 OAK RIDGE, TN 91 70 88 65 / 40 30 20 10 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 88 65 85 62 / 30 30 20 10
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SON/MJB

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