Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 250714 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 314 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015 .SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
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AS HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST LOOSENS ITS GRIP OVER THE APPALACHIANS...A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN AND ADVECT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA TODAY. VORT MAX AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION THIS MORNING IN WEST TN WILL TRACK EAST...AND WITH AFTERNOON HEATING CREATING SOME INSTABILITY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS AND TRACK N-NE. A DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL HELP KEEP NORTHERN SECTIONS MORE STABLE...AND WILL HAVE ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND DOWNSLOPE WINDS...WARMEST TEMPS TODAY WILL BE IN THE TRI-CITIES AREA. TONIGHT...THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE MUCH OF A TRIGGER FOR CONVECTION OVERNIGHT OTHER THAN LINGERING BOUNDARIES...BUT THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE WITH PW VALUES OVER 1.5 INCHES...SO WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING OVERNIGHT. .LONG TERM (TOMORROW THROUGH MONDAY)... THE WET DAYS WILL REALLY BEGIN FOR MOST PEOPLE ON TUESDAY AS PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE PUMPS UP INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL BRING A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME OF THE STORMS TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE IN OUR AREA...BUT AT THIS POINT THE BETTER MIXTURE OF CONVECTIVE INGREDIENTS LOOK TO REMAIN GENERALLY WEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WILL NOT RULE OUT THE CHANCE TO SEE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE SENT AROUND THE RIDGE AND PASS NEAR OUR AREA. AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FLOODING ISSUES TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK IF A PARTICULAR AREA GETS REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN DURING THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. ANOTHER SLOW MOVING MOVING THROUGH WILL START WORKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST, WHICH HAS LEAD TO MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. BUT AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 80 67 83 67 / 60 50 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 84 66 82 64 / 50 50 60 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 83 67 82 66 / 50 40 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 86 64 83 63 / 20 20 50 60
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ DGS/ABM

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