Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 262026 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 326 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND TUESDAY)...BASED ON CALLS TO SMOKY MTN PARK HEADQUARTERS...SNOW STILL APPEARS TO BE MAINLY OCCURRING ABOVE 3000 FEET. NEWFOUND GAP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THE RATE OF SNOW ACCUMULATION HAS SLOWED WITH AROUND 5 INCHES TOTAL FOR SNOW DEPTH. HOWEVER...LOOKING UPSTREAM WE DO SEE AN AREA OF POTENTIAL SNOW DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN KY AND NRN MIDDLE TN. MODELS SEEM TO BE SPREADING THIS ACTIVITY E AND SE OVERNIGHT AS VORTICITY CHANNELS ACROSS THE REGION. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATER TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...WITH TOP OF SATURATED COLUMN MARGINALLY COLD ENOUGH TO PROMOTE SNOW CRYSTAL GROWTH (AROUND -10 DEGS C). LIGHT QPF PROGGED TO HUG THE TN-NC LINE AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z TUESDAY...SO AGREED TO EXTEND OUR WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...IN LINE WITH RNK AND GSP GRIDS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS FOR TUESDAY WITH SNOW TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES OR ENDING AFTER 18Z. SLIGHTLY LOWERED BOTH MIN TEMP GRID FOR TONIGHT AND MAX TEMP GRID ON TUESDAY...SIMILAR TO THE COLDER MOS TEMPS. .LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY AIR WILL MOVE IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE AREA. MODELS STILL SHOW ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS TO SEE A FEW FLURRIES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOOK TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO THE HIGH PRESSURE. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS ARE IN SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE PRECIP...WITH GFS BRINGING IN THE PRECIP EARLY IN THE MORNING WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE STILL BELOW FREEZING. HAVE GONE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS A COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE EARLY MORNING THURSDAY...CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS BY MID MORNING AS TEMPS WARM UP. RAIN WILL THEN CHANGE TO SNOW AS TEMPERATURES LOWER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE SUN`S SETTING...AND BY FRIDAY MORNING...A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP WITH SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...SW VA...AND NE TN. ALL PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE GONE BY FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTLE IN FOR A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER INTIMIDATING LOW PRESSURE WILL SWING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. MODELS ARE STRUGGLING WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH THEY HAVE BEEN FOR ALMOST EVERY SINGLE SYSTEM THIS WINTER...THIS FAR OUT. THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS LIGHT...BUT THERE SEEMS TO BE ENOUGH ALIGNMENT WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPS TO NEED TO INCLUDE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE GRIDS. WOULD EXPECT THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS TO BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS DUE TO THE NORTHWEST PATTERN THAT IS EXPECTED TO SET UP...BUT AM HESITANT TO SAY THIS SYSTEM`S FORECAST WITH MUCH CONFIDENCE...SEEING AS HOW THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED WITH SNOWFALL SYSTEMS THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS TIME WILL BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 31 46 28 48 / 20 10 0 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 29 41 22 44 / 30 20 0 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 29 41 23 45 / 30 20 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 26 37 18 41 / 30 30 0 0
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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NC...NONE. TN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-JOHNSON-NORTHWEST CARTER- SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SOUTHEAST CARTER-SOUTHEAST GREENE- SOUTHEAST MONROE-UNICOI. VA...NONE.
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&& $$ TG/JW

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