Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 231859 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 259 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016 .SHORT TERM...
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(Tonight and Sunday)...The rather stagnant pattern will continue over the area as we remain under the broad upper ridge. Expect some isolated to scattered convection...especially during the afternoon and evening. The heat will continue as well. Will go close to MAV temps for lows...but will continue to go a bit higher than MAV most locations for max temps. .LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)...Overall, pattern still looks similar to yesterday`s forecast. Increase in rain chances still expected as a front drops southward by early week along with more seasonable temperatures. As we begin the period on Sunday night high pressure still over the area but not near as amplified as in previous days. A few lingering diurnal showers and storms may still be around early with rain chances decreasing late. Mild lows expected with temps upper 60s to near 70 north and mid 70s south. High pressure tries to hang on through Monday despite the fact that a front is dropping down out of the Ohio River Valley. Models in decent agreement that high slows front delaying it`s arrival, compared to model runs the past few days, until Tuesday. Even though the front is slightly delayed, still expecting diurnal convection Monday afternoon. Still hot on Monday with highs in the low to mid 90s and mild overnight lows with similar values to Sunday night. On Tuesday this weak and broad front finally drifts into the area from out of the north and will stall out across our area thorugh at least Thursday. During this time rain/storm chances will be in the chance and likely category as the front will serve as a triggering mechanism for convection. There could be some locally heavy rainfall during this time as soundings indicate increasing pws with arrival of the front combined with very weak flow aloft which should produce slow storm motions. On Friday a very broad upper level trough starts to dip down into the Southern Appalachians along with another front. This will allow precip chances to remain in the chance to likely categories. Trough remains across the area into Saturday, which will keep high-end chance pops in the forecast. Temperatures from Tuesday through Saturday should be more seasonable due to increasing rain chances and cloud cover.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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Chattanooga Airport, TN 74 97 75 95 / 30 30 20 40 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 73 95 74 93 / 20 20 20 40 Oak Ridge, TN 73 96 73 93 / 20 20 20 40 Tri Cities Airport, TN 69 95 69 92 / 20 20 30 40
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. TN...None. VA...None. && $$ LW/SR

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