Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 271922 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 322 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...STILL EXPECTING A QUIET SHORT TERM BUT CHANGES ON THE WAY. OUR HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAS IMPACTED OUR WEATHER OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS FINALLY MOVES OFF TO OUR NE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MID AND LOW LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE NW AND A WEAK LOW COMING NORTH OUT OF THE GULF ON SUNDAY. THE SOUTH SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS OUR AREA AND SLOWLY BEGIN TO ERODE THE DRY AIR OBSERVED IN THE SOUNDINGS. THIS WILL TAKE SOME TIME THOUGH SO IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL STAY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THE SHORT TERM BUT WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH OUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND NEAR NORMAL TOMORROW. .LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...BRINGING THE AREA A GOOD CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IN WELL OVER A WEEK. STILL SOME QUESTION WITH THE LOCATION OF THE BEST LIFT AND THUS HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION BANDS. THE NAM IS NOW TRENDING A LITTLE MORE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE EARLIER RUNS OF THE GFS...AND IS REALLY FAVORING THE SOUTHERN VALLEY...AND EAST TENNESSEE/WEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE THE CATEGORICAL POPS ORIENTED THIS WAY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...BEFORE TAPERING THEM OFF WEST TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. AS THE PRECIPITATION ENDS MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING WILL OCCUR BY TUESDAY AND AN UPPER-RIDGE AXIS WILL BUILD IN BRIEFLY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SUNSHINE/DRY CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. ANOTHER MORE POTENT UPPER-LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL THEN TRACK TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY LATE IN THE WEEK...WHICH MAY BRING A STRONGER FRONT AND MORE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS HEADING INTO A FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER AIRS AS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S MAY BE COMMON BY NEXT WEEKEND.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 65 79 63 77 / 10 40 70 60 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 62 78 63 74 / 10 20 80 60 OAK RIDGE, TN 61 79 61 74 / 10 20 70 60 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 55 78 58 70 / 10 20 80 70
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/AMP

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