Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 300656 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 256 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015 .SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...WEAK COLD FRONT STILL JUST OFF TO OUR NW BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY. TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED UNTIL THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SO WHILE NOT QUITE AS HOT AND STICKY AS YESTERDAY STILL PLAN ON APPARENT TEMPS BEING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MOST AREAS. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK MUCH LOWER FOR TODAY COMPARED TO WHAT MODELS WERE SHOWING SEVERAL DAYS AGO. THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR AN EARLIER FRONTAL PASSAGE THUS LEADING TO DECREASED PRECIP CHANCES. BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. PRECIP CHANCES DROP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TONIGHT SHOULD BE VERY PLEASANT AS TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE 60S AS WELL. .LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MODELS STILL ADVERTISING THE DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT COUPLED WITH SURFACE RIDGING AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. IN FACT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE MORE WESTERLY THAN SOUTHERLY...WHICH SUPPORTS THE SUPERBLEND MOS POPS ACTUALLY ABOUT 10 TO 15 PERCENT LOWER NOW FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THUS...I NUDGED POPS DOWN AND KEPT AS MUCH CONTINUITY AS POSSIBLE FROM OUR 29/12Z FORECAST GRIDS. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK SUFFICIENT FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NOW...AS I SEE NO REASON TO GO NEAR CLIMO POPS...UNLESS THE WEAK E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOES SAG SOUTH INTO SW VA AND NRN PLATEAU COUNTIES. FOR TEMPS...30/00Z MOS MAX TEMPS CAME IN A FEW DEGREES WARMER FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE DRIER AIRMASS. TWEAKED THE MAXES UP A BIT IN LINE WITH THE NEW GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE SUPERBLEND MAXES/MINS LOOKED GOOD WITH THE USUAL ADJUSTMENT TO GIVE MORE OF A RANGE ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS EACH DAY/NIGHT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 93 69 92 67 / 30 10 10 0 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 90 65 88 65 / 30 10 10 0 OAK RIDGE, TN 90 65 89 64 / 30 0 0 0 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 87 62 86 59 / 30 10 0 0 && .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SR/TG

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