Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000 FXUS64 KMRX 221911 AFDMRX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN 311 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014 .SHORT TERM...
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(TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA STILL THE DOMINANT FEATURE FOR OUR AREA...ALTHOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE OFF THE FLA COAST IS ACTUALLY GAINING MORE INFLUENCE OVER OUR NORTHERN SECTIONS. THIS MAY EXPLAIN WHY IT HAS BEEN RELATIVELY QUIET OVER THE NORTHERN PARTS OF OUR REGION. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS TONIGHT AS THIS SYSTEM FOR THE LAST 24 HOURS HAS LOOKED DIURNAL WITH RESPECT TO CONVECTION. STILL GOING WITH DECENT POPS FOR WEDNESDAY...AS FRONT GETS CLOSER WOULD EXPECT INCREASING ORGANIZATION WITH WIND STRUCTURE AS WELL AS THE START OF SOME COOLING ALOFT. GFS MOS GUIDANCE LOOKS VERY GOOD OVERALL FOR THESE TWO PERIODS...ONLY WENT ABOUT 1 DEG COOLER FOR WEDNESDAY MAX TEMP. .LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)... MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND FASTER WITH THE APPROACH OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE BEST QG FORCING COMING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE...PWAT VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.75 INCHES...WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FOR THAT PERIOD. THE NAM AND GFS AGREE ON SOME PRECIP LINGERING IN EASTERN SECTIONS THU MORNING AS THE SURFACE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...BUT WE SHOULD HAVE THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS BUILDING IN BY THE EVENING. WILL REMOVE ALL POPS FROM THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM CENTRAL CANADA AND A NW FLOW ALOFT WILL PROVIDE AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AND COOL AIR MASS FOR FRIDAY. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S...WITH HIGHS FRIDAY BETWEEN 80 AND 85 IN MOST SPOTS. SOME MODERATION WILL OCCUR SATURDAY WHEN THE HIGH MOVES EAST...WITH HIGHS CLOSER TO NORMAL BUT BELOW THE GFS MOS NUMBERS...WHICH SEEM WAY TOO WARM. A CLOSED LOW DROPS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION FOR SUNDAY...PRODUCING FALLING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND PUSHING ANOTHER FRONT TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NW. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH THE GENERAL PATTERN...SO WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR AREA TUESDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER COOL AND DRY HIGH DROPPING OUT OF CANADA PROVIDING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
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&& .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
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CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN 70 89 71 86 / 20 50 60 50 KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN 70 88 70 84 / 10 50 60 50 OAK RIDGE, TN 70 88 70 84 / 10 50 70 40 TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN 66 87 66 81 / 10 50 70 50
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&& .MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ GM/DGS

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